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A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics |
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September 24, 2008Forget any bailout or CASH4TRASH, why not use our new assets and the solvent banks?So the system is "clogged". There's not enough capital to go around to lend for home, car and other consumer loans, not a whole lot of money for business to use for expansion or even just ordinary operations. Hence the bailout. doesn't make sense. Why pay cash for trash that no one else seems to be buying? Why not use Freddie and Fannie, along with components of AIG that we pretty much own or run as part of the solution? Why not use the 700 billion or so intended for bailouts for the loan capital this country needs instead? F2 can be used as the initial conduit for an expanded distribution of home loans. AIG can provide the PMI and loan guarantees as needed. For all other loans the government can initially specify 20 or more banks with strong enough balance sheets like B of A, Wells Fargo, US National(sp?) and historically sane loan policies and make them conduits of government cash. For a small fee of course. Let's say Wells Fargo presents to the US Treasury a rough estimate of loans needed for the next 90 days in Northern California. Maybe 5 billion will allow them to fulfill customer loan needs for the next 30 days. B of A and other banks could present their numbers for that area. The Feds will supply the money at modestly below-market rates. Wells and other banks won't have to go to tapped out investors or China or anywhere else. If they need more money the Fed can supply it. Repeat this around the country with other banks with solid financial footing. Expand as time goes on, The loan processes may take a little longer because we'll enact tougher vetting rules. However it seems to me that the money would get out to the market faster and would provide both greater confidence in the market and less of a sense by the American Public that we're screwed again. Now if someone wants to buy up the trash, that's fine. They can get loans for their efforts, with suitable collateral of course. But I see no reason to bail out a bunch of investors who lost their gamble. This came to me this afternoon while listening to Randi Rhodes talk about how the bailout benefits a lot of people who got us into this mess in the first place. Fire away. I know there are holes in this and missing details such as the role of the Federal Reserve, but maybe somewhere is an alternative to Trash4Cash AKA bail us out of another "BushCluster%*@#Part20-something". BTW, that's not a swearword, that's strong encryption. Posted by Marcus at September 24, 2008 04:49 AMComments
I think this idea has real merit. The only problem is in determining if the “smarter” banks are actually doing better due to sound judgment or they are also on the brink, and it is just a matter of time before they go under. One thing to remember is that there is some property behind these loans, the value might not be there but picking up the loan for a huge discount is still an investment opportunity for someone. In my example I mention Wells Fargo Bank. They are not on the brink although they do have some significant write downs. They do have a lot of properties on the books that are fairly "old" like mine so ultimately they are in ok shape. One thing that did occur to me is that punmping money into these banks might make them better as they will have higher quality loans added to their portfolios instead of junk. Posted by: Marcus at September 24, 2008 02:09 PMMe, too, Marcus, and I'm a capitalist pig. Economist articles have been using an arcane index called the LIBOR, an average of London interbank loan rates, to give some numbers to the dimensions of crisis. The most-panicky version of it is the overnight LIBOR, what it sounds like, so it sh0ould be a good track of market rumor and feeling. Higher is bad, and lower is good. That most-panicky LIBOR spiked massively in mid-September, probably provoking alot of this worry. That was probably because Merrill, Lehman, and AIG were still unresolved and causing alot of worry. But, it's been headed DOWN for the entire last week, so I'm not getting where the importance for this is. It's probably a good thing to have a plan in case we get a sharp hairpin back up, but it certainly shouldn't be passed yet. And, for this kind of cash, I want to see the thinking cap kept on longer, and some competitive plans thought of. I think your version would do more good. Sen Dodd proposed another contructive alternative. Even when things were getting worse, I couldn't make myself believe that the hurry was needed or even likely to be helpful. I was happy to see that even Bush has managed to understand his version was a nonstarter, at least not in the version delivered. Well, maybe it's easier to see when it's even a nonstarter with your own party. Posted by: Jon Kay at September 25, 2008 02:57 AM |
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