Centerfield

An Interesting Article On Election Margin

I'm not so incautious as to say the election can't be close, as the headline does (must bring eyeballs!), but Mann and Sabato do bring up some good points about reasons for hope.

Yeah, it really is too early for the poll margin to mean much: the article says Reagan had a narrow margin at this point,

Another point made was that getting comfortable takes time. That's especially true of the majority of non-politically (over?)involved voters.

Alot of righties probably don't really know what they're going to do, or will be less enthusiastic about getting out the door than they think. Only a small fraction are happy about McCain.

Many Hillary supporters are taking awhile to make the transition as well, though 80-90% will go to Obama.

An interesting case is that Hitchens only recently went from thinking Obama was a whippersnapper to thinking he's ept, though still not to supporting him. He's feeling homeless right now, like so many who liked Bush. It'll be interesting to see which way he goes in Nov. I think he's unlikely to vote for McCain - either staying home or biting the Obama bullet are my guesses.

I do believe Nader will draw far fewer voters than Barr. Us Dems are pretty thoroughly united, and more so with each weekly bit of Bush misadministration news. While the GOP is fractured, with each piece of Bush news more likely to send them to Barr or to stay home.