Centerfield

Well, I don't think it's EVER simple, but drilling would be a big part of it. Along with the perception that the media is completely in the tank for Obama, and the ongoing slippage of his polished veneer.

There's a "failure to bounce" factor in play as well, but not enough info to assess it properly.

Tully: I'm not sure I understand your "failure to bounce" factor point. Is it that momentum/inevitability breeds momentum/inevitability (i.e., the Hillary strategy)? Or is is something else (i.e., if he can't bounce now while in rock-star mode, it is an warning sign for Obama)? Or is it both, or something different? I will say that the dynamics of this race have me perplexed, and I think that they are likely to be dramatically different in October than they are now, so my head-scratching is likely to continue.

A Rasmussen poll not too long ago had 67% of the public supporting more domestic drilling.

By "failure to bounce" I mean that his polling numbers did not get the boost one would expect from clinching the nomination--the centrist Clinton factions did not move over en masse.

And yeah, poll-watching before the conventions are over is generally no better than tea-leaf reading. Fun, but the numbers aren't really meaningful until we get into the home stretch. .

Oh but wait there's more!

Now it's Rove et al playing the "Uppity Ni***r" card.

As McCain and his supporters, especially the corporate ones, get more desperate this campaing is going to get seriously racist in key states.