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April 15, 2008

Obama's Turn At Coalition-Burning

In his case he lost alot of bitter and regular Americans who felt described by Obama's remarks. Obama was tightening the numbers alot in PA, and coming pretty close, like he did in TX, and now that's gone backwards a bit.

I don't think this is big enough to change the (D) race. He's still small beer coalition-burning-wise compared to Clinton. It could lose a close November race, though. Obama needs to put some serious thought, time, and effort into getting through to the regular guy.

Mark Blumenthal on the PA result, on Pollster;

...the survey does show a significant nine-point drop (from 60% to 51%) in his favorable rating among white men with no college degree. Notice that this change brings Obama's current rating among non-college men (51% favorable, 27% unfavorable) back to more or less where it was two weeks ago (53% favorable, 29% unfavorable)....

Bill Bradley has an interesting post about how the news got out. He makes the interesting point that the event at which Obama said his thing would formerly have been, effective, a private event. In this blogworld there is no private for politicians outside your door.

For some honesty in blogging here, I'd used the term "bitter state" (on this very blog, even) to describe states like MI, PA, and Ohio, that were leaders during the Industrial Revolution, but that have failed to use their earlier advantages to develop the kinds of higher education strength to keep up in the new economy. My wife thought Obama's comment was right, too.

But, of course, we aren't running for office, and it's a great example of why professors and engineers rarely make good politicians; today I read that famous Victorian engineer Charles Babbage lost three MP elections despite his success at engineering. I guess Obama needed to make it clearer somehow that he cared about them, bitterness and all.

UPDATE: We're in our very own bitter state as well now. I just dropped some yummy spaghetti quasi-Carbonara.

Posted by Jon Kay at April 15, 2008 11:01 PM
Comments

I was going to write about this over the weekend but didn't because I didn't want to sound like a band wagon talking head. However, I was offended by Obama's comments... truly offended. It showed a side of him that many have said was there... now they have ammo. Deep down I couldn't take away anything from his comments other than he truly believe what he was saying, which shows a real misunderstanding of how most Americans live. "Guns and God" are a part of the culture of many small towns, usually based on heritage and tradition, not bitterness and despair. Furthermore, I am not so sure that rural America feels they are as bad off as the Senator believes they do.... I don't go hunting with my buddies because I am frustrated about my place in life... I do it because my dad did it, and his dad did it, and his dad did it.

If I was leaning toward McCain, Obama pushed me even further away. Look for the media to kill him on this for weeks to come in order to save the Democrats by ensuring Hillary rises from the dead to win the nomination. If she wins in Pennsylvania and Indiana, the Democratic Party has a huge problem on their hands. Barack Obama did this to himself, and at least for today, I have a heard time giving a crap.

Posted by: Starbucks Republican at April 16, 2008 12:00 AM

I'm not so sure. Certainly a some political junkies (i.e the sort of people who read and comment here) have been offended by Obama's remarks. And a lot more, while they actually agree with them in substance, think that they will be damaging -- that is, that it was impolitic of him to actually voice the truth here.

But as far as having an impact on the actual voters on whose behalf they are concerned? I'd like to see some actual post-gaffe polling results before jumping to any conclusions. Because I've also seen a number of comments from people who are part of the supposedly offended demographic saying, essentially, "Yup, that's pretty much right on."

It's obviously just anecdotal at this point. But it encourages me to want to see an actual broad scientific sample.

Posted by: wj at April 16, 2008 10:11 AM

I'm not bitter and I didn't feel described--that would be ascribing accuracy to Obama's remarks. He certainly managed to piss me off, much as any glib, superficial, and profoundly mistaken and insulting description would piss off anyone.

Of course the odds that I would vote for him were already pretty small at this point, but it still a stupid and telling remark, and his attempt to explain it was even worse. Those who think his take was accurate were in no danger of voting for McCain anyway, but the Great Indie Middle where elections are decided heard him loud and clear, and he just lost a HUGE chunk of them.

Sadly for the D party I think he's probably unstoppable at this point, barring a complete implosion. As long as he goes into the convention leading however slightly in the popular vote and regular delegates, he will get the nomination.

At this point it still looks like the convention is going to be a riot--and I mean that literally. Stock up on popcorn, pizza, and beer.

Posted by: Tully at April 16, 2008 12:15 PM

Agreed Tully, and flipping the bird and calling vetting a distraction is setting up McCain for the WH. Quite a revolting show from the Democrats.

Posted by: Maxtrue at April 18, 2008 03:59 PM
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