A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics
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A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics | |
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March 15, 2008Discounting PetulanceInstapundit has sent folks to visit Classical Values' crowing about current dissension in the ranks of the Democratic Party: This is just peachy. For McCain. I like that. To find out what rank and file Democrats are thinking about this read the comments here. An example: So folks in the GOP column are taking the same measure of pleasure from internal democratic dissension as folks in the Dem column have been taking from internal GOP dissension. But will such petulant threats still have legs come November? My gut says they mostly deserve to be discounted. Most of the chickens will come home to their traditional party to roost, although some may decide to stay home. The question is "how motivated is each side's partisan base?" At the outset, I'd like to ask folks out there what they think on that matter. It's an open question to me how many socon GOP partisans will stay home. McCain is as strongly identified among these folks as a RINO as any GOP pol in recent memory. But either Clinton or Obama will surely provide ample motivation for socon turnout. Will petulance from the dem loser's supporters endure from August into November? With anti-GOP admin sentiment as high as it could be, I have my doubts. But there will be less time than usual for such sentiment to fade should the battle carry right onto the convention floor. Mileage may vary, but my gut says that Obama supporters are more likely to behave petulantly. So many Clinton supporters back her because she's a ruthless fighter, and they want to win. They'll back their team. meanwhile, Obama supporters are now nurturing a strong and growing loathing of the Clinton campaign, and they may well bolt for the progressive fjords if Hillary orchestrates a convention win via superdelegates. Now I don't think that's going to happen. But if it does. let's not forget that Gore's 2000 Nader-induced loss is still pretty fresh in the memory. Would disgruntled Obamites really behave so as to enable a McCain presidency that would extend GOP executive rule to 12 years? I dunno. they might rabbit, they might. What do you think? Posted by Kranky Kritter at March 15, 2008 11:32 AMComments
I'll be fascinated to see a collection of opinions. For myself, I long since gave up trying to figure out what the so-called "base" of each party was likely to do nationwide. In California, they will typically go as extreme as possible in the primary. But if the Republicans are faced with a moderate Republican vs. any Democrat, they will turn out in the general election. Similarly the Democrats (although their base, popular perception notwithstanding, is not quite so extreme). Given the number of moderates, that means either party can win. IF they happen to nominate a (relative) moderate. When both go to extremes, the moderates frequently split . . . which means that the Democrats tend to win from sheer numbers. (But most often, the Democrats go with strong, but not extreme, liberals. So they dominate state politics these days.) What does that mean for the Presidential race? If McCain had had the good fortune to come up against Edwards (or one of the others), he might well have carried California. Against Obama, however, McCain loses solidly. And against Clinton? Revulsion at her sleeze tactics keeps her to a razor-thin margin, but she probable squeaks thru (although I wouldn't bet the ranch on it). Posted by: wj at March 15, 2008 12:37 PMIt's gonna hafta be REALLY ugly to lose me. As in, so bad that a third GOP term is better. Corruption makes me even reluctant at the idea of Dem third terms, never mind a GOP one, and especially not this one, since McCain's said zilch about calming things down and returning any of 'em human rights thingies and shows no sign of being less clueless than the President on Iraq. Some of the losers' supporters will be lost, IMHO. If Obama wins, who sees Ferraro supporting him? To lose more than a few of Obamas' supporters, IMHO it'd take a loss despite popular AND delegate wins. It might even have to be done ugly. I think somewhat more of Clintons' supporters will be lost no matter what, because Hillary's been playing on fear. But nothing like the numbers of those who say so, IMHO. Hopefully, Obama'll be smart enough to do serious reachout work if he wins. Obviously, if a miracle happens, and Clinton has a pleded-delegate advantage, Clinton supporters will be, I think, even more cheesed if C doesn't get the win. Another thing that could lose them is if something REALLY ugly turns up involving Obama directly and not just his buddies. The danger is that The Mac and Hillary show will take it into November. That will mean it will be politics as it has always been. The politics of yesterday. Just a better version, but yesterday still. Obama at least tries to show some sort of vision in a country that has neverbeen more divided. Is he right? Your call. But is he offering something the others don't? for sure. I tried to play this tune through an Oasis song on my blog -
The Mac and Hillary Show Mac & Hillary Posted by: Angry African at March 16, 2008 01:50 PM I am afraid the "new" people that Obama has brought into the process will just stay home if Hillary steals (in their mind) the nomination via super delegates. The emotion is running high on both sides from what I can tell. This grandma has donated to a political campaign (more than I admit to my hubby) for the very first time in her life. (First Edwards, then Obama). I feel strongly about the need for change, but would probably hold my nose and vote for Hillary - as I have done in most elections over the last years. But you can be sure that after the actions of the Hillary team the last month, she will not get one dime from me for the general election. Posted by: JWC at March 16, 2008 06:51 PM |
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