Centerfield

Kranky's Delegate Projections

Kranky's getting tired of debating the moral rectitude of various possible actions of superdelegates (SD) come convention time. I'm ready to guess that the opinion split we're seeing in the wonkosphere will be roughly duplicated by the SD unless the candidates' win patterns break. Because I've got a bit of detail below, I've boldfaced the cut-to-the-chase bits below, in case folks want to skim or skip. If you skip, note here that PD is short for regular pledged delegates.

When Obama wins Mississippi, it will leave the win patterns for both candidates intact. When HC wins PA after BO closes the gap but fails to catch up, that will also leave the win patterns for both candidates intact. As will BO's wins in the majority of smaller states. As will a split of NC for BO and IN for HC. All of that will leave the current PD count in the same ballpark it sits today.

IOW, right now it's not about any one state unless HC loses PA, which seems unlikely today. It's about the summary outcome of regular pledged delegates (PD) in all the remaining primaries and caucuses, and how that effects the views of the undecided and waffling SD.

It's currently unlikely that the SD are going to vote as a block or landslide in one way. Much more likely, they'll split along some sort of percent line like 60-40 or 55-45. Because mileage will vary among these folks just like it does among us folks. Let's grant them non-lemming status for now, OK?

BO is ahead by around 140-150 delegates right now. If HC wins PA by 5 or 10 percent, she'll pick up a few SD, but that will probably only equal what BO gains in the smaller states he carries. BO and HC will likely split the other remaining big delegate states, IN and I think NC. So the PD deficit projects to remain stable, excluding what happens to the 360-something delegates FL and MI. If both states get together some sort of half-baked do-over, the best guess is that HC can pick up good ground in FL and slightly lesser ground in MI. With about 360 delegates at stake in those states, HC could pick up 50-80 delegates if she wins by a margin like 55%-45%.

Why is that important? Because she needs that sort of margin to get her PD deficit down to the mid to high double digits. If she can get it that low, THEN she can win at the convention with a similar 55-45 split among SD. If BO can stay 100+ delegates ahead, then Hillary starts to need closer to 60% or even more of the superdelegates.

Which starts to be a real uphill climb.

Here's the big finish, folks:

IOW, if HC has mo at the convention because she only trails in PD by 50-75, she can overturn the PD count with a 55ish% SD majority. If her PD deficit is even smaller, then she has even bigger mo and needs an even smaller SD majority to steal the nom. But if BO keeps his PD lead in the triple digits, Hillary's mo is debatable, and she'll be hard pressed to carry the SD by more than a few percentage points.