Centerfield

Texas Dem Update

The race seems to've tightened here in Texas.

According to the Austin American-Statesman, organizing Guadalupe Valley (TX S border region) was Clinton's first political job, so she has long-time contacts here, and there are long good memories of her and her husband. There are many good memories of the Clinton Administration here, and there's a fair amount of cultural friction here between many Latinos and many blacks. Thus, Clinton started with a huge advantage among Latinos, according to the Statesman.

Now, (maybe from the momentum? or maybe some Latinos are feeling more comfortable with Obama than their neighbors?), the polling numbers among Latinos are narrowing, though the lead's still there. But that means the overall gap is alot narrower.

So, I still think Clinton's likely to end up ahead here, but with a narrow enough margin to still be in trouble overall. I think she'll lose Ohio, though maybe narrowly.