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February 07, 2008

Super-delegates

Link.

We've done a bad job of explaing this, but it is now basically mathematically impossible for either Clinton or Obama to win the nomination through the regular voting process (meaning the super-delegates decide this one, baby!).

Here's the math. There are 3,253 pledged delegates, those doled out based on actual voting in primaries and caucuses. And you need 2,025 to win the nomination.

To date, about 55% of those 3,253 delegates have been pledged in the voting process -- with Clinton and Obamb roughly splitting them at about 900 delegates a piece.

That means there are now only about 1,400 delegates left up for grabs in the remaining states and territories voting.

So, do the math. If they both have about 900 pledged delegates so far, they need to win more than 1,100 of the remaining 1,400 delegates to win the nomination through actual voting.

Ain't gonna happen, barring a stunning scandal or some new crazy revelation. So, they'll keep fighting this thing out, each accumulating their chunk of delegates, one of them holding a slight edge and bothing finishing the voting process with 1,600 or so delegates.

And then the super delegates decide this thing.

That's the math.

Sound logic, as far as I can tell. This year is going to so much more interesting than 2004. (Via Political Wire.)

Posted by Todd Pearson at February 7, 2008 06:21 PM
Comments

Well, well, well - I think he's probably right - it's been a pretty even steven race so far. This could be interesting.... We don't see so many primaries where action happens at the convention anymore.

I foresee Edwards becoming VERY popular with the frontrunners....

Posted by: Jon Kaya at February 7, 2008 11:52 PM

You have to wonder why the party kept this superdelegates thing around. I mean, in any situation where it would matter, it automatically becomes a problem for the candidate helped by it. Getting pushed over the top by insiders, rather than voters, never looks so good.

There is some possibility, I'm guessing, of it not being as critical as the Political Wire suggests. If one of the candidates gets a little more momentum than the other, and builds up any sort of significant lead ... and if the superdelegates don't go the other way and flip the result ... then it could be viewed broadly as legitimate.

Question is, how close will it be?

Posted by: William Swann at February 8, 2008 11:18 AM

Yeah, I thought the same thing as Bill. As long as the superdelegates lead to the approval of the person perceived to have the demonstrated edge, then no one will care that much about the how.

But that's still a substantial if. If they are still neck and neck when all is said and done...

Posted by: kritter at February 8, 2008 02:34 PM

You all are even going to be paying for their conventions to party with each other.

Obama is wasting a lot of money that could be better spent than given to media cos. and consultants.

Why would you waste any mental energy on
these people's games with one another?

Wouldn't thinking people prefer a much shortened election cycle and much less money spent?

Geeze, all that money from both sides wasted.
Another symptom of the times.

Posted by: alex at February 8, 2008 04:42 PM

I think the longer battle between the two, if done right, gives Obama and Hillary a daily forum that will overshadow the seemingly already done deal for the GOP for the next few months. They can refine their messages and promote the general democratic message.

Posted by: Marcus at February 8, 2008 06:02 PM
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