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January 27, 2008

Bill Isn't Good At Going Negative

According to CNN's Political Ticker Blog,

Roughly 6 in 10 South Carolina Democratic primary voters said Bill Clinton's campaigning was important in how they ultimately decided to vote, and of those voters, 48 percent went for Barack Obama while only 37 percent went for Hillary Clinton. Fourteen percent of those voters voted for John Edwards

And here's Jonathan Chait's column on his and others' exiting of the Clinton coalition. Must build big tent, not tear it down.

Posted by Jon Kay at January 27, 2008 12:12 AM
Comments

Yeah, I thought that was a weird stat, because the poll didn't explicitly ask voters which way Clinton swayed them, or whether he in fact did. Folks may well have been willing to talk about Obama lacking in experience, especially since it's a valid criticism being echoed by quite a few others.

But it's an ongoing question as to whether such anti-Obama criticism is actually capable of dissuading voters who find Obama's pitch appealing.

In other words, what this stat pairing implies may not actually be the case. It's entirely possible that folks were willing to listen to Bill Clinton as an important voice, but that ultimately they didn't vote the way Bill wanted them to...

...for example, many black voters have expressed respect for Bill Clinton. But that doesn't mean that they therefore passed up their first chance to vote for a legitimate black presidential candidate.

IMO, folks are way too in love with the Bill Clinton angle. Of greater interest to me are these:

• blacks turned out in droves for Obama

• John Edwards is hanging in there.

Hillary's high negatives endure, of course. Whether that's explicitly due to Bill's foray into the campaign is something I remain skeptical about. But it has entered into the conventional wisdom, so I guess it counts as true for all intents and purposes.

It bothers insiders and wonks. So they can't resist blathering about it as a given. But I don't think it's driving that many people's voting choices.

Posted by: kritter at January 27, 2008 01:47 PM

I'm not sure it's Bill Clinton's skill, or lack thereof, so much as the fact that Obama is the target. The best antidote to negative campaigning is a likeable candidate. Attacks worked against Gore and Kerry because they're not your average guys who relate well to their fellow human beings. They didn't work against Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan because both of those guys are personable, likeable, and at ease with people.

It's a bad strategy for Hillary and Bill to go negative on Obama because that stuff's gonna bounce right off him -- and get flung back in their direction. I thought Obama's victory speech was masterful, in that respect. He really turned the attacks into a liability for the attacker. It sounded so much like the politics of old that many people want to get past these days.

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