Centerfield

I Don't Know How The War Is Going

Does anyone else? See, what confuses me is that all the democratic partisans seem convinced Iraq is on the verge of collapse, and all the GOP partisans seem convinced that the surge has been so magic that victory is all but assured, a simple matter of more time and hard work. Color me skeptical that either side has it quite right.

Steve Chapman hypothesizes that both sides are off and a stalemate is what we're looking at...

The more sober supporters of the war recognize we have far to go. "Very real progress is anything but stable victory, even in the area where the U.S. and Iraqi surge has been most effective," writes Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The surge, he says, "has not brought lasting stability and security" even to Baghdad.

The surge itself may not be as important as another change in strategy—joining forces with Sunni militias previously allied with al Qaida. "Paying them not to blow us up" is how one American sergeant summarized it for the Los Angeles Times.

For the moment, at least, that tactic has served to quell attacks in some areas. But it comes at a high price: strengthening groups that, once we leave, may revolt against the Shiite-dominated central government.

Mark Kimmitt, deputy assistant secretary of defense for Middle Eastern affairs, recently said that if he had to guess the chance that the surge can bring stability, he'd say "maybe it's three in 10, maybe it's 50-50, if we play our cards right." That glum forecast may be too generous, since playing our cards wrong has been the hallmark of the occupation.

The surge, it's easy to forget, was not intended merely to improve security, but to facilitate political progress. But of the various legislative actions Bush demanded of the Iraqi government a year ago, the only one it has passed is a new law to allow former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath party back in government.

Plenty to make both sides' partisans grumpy there, which suits me just fine. Of course, the anti-war folk are bound to chime in that a stalemate means we ought to quit, while the pro-war folk are bound to be unable to refrain from the truism that we can't win if we don't stay.

More on the prospects for the long-term endurance of this schism over the war in the post above.