Centerfield

My money is on Hillary because of the more restrictive nature of the primaries in some states.Obama is drawing a LOT of support from independents, and they won't be allowed to vote in every primary. Then factor in the superior insider favor-trading machinery in big states like NY, CA, OH, NJ.

Don't you have to think that the failure of accuracy of the NH polls was due to some of the model-identified "likely" voters not making it to the polls for Obama, especially independents?

In other words, Obama may have a few too many supporters who like him, but either can't vote for him or won't end up motivated enough to vote.

Although I don't exactly agree, it is interesting most pundits and candidates have kept their eye off the bouncing strategic ball. While Obambi is referencing JFK, and Hillary knows Putin has no soul, this just in:

"This is grave," said a senior Air Force official. "Two hundred of our air superiority aircraft are on the ground, and we are acting like it is business as usual." Defense Tech

F-15s too cracked to fly. So Iran sends speedboats at warships. More "diplomatic personnel" visit South America from Iran.

Republicans are loath to alarm and bring more anxiety to their watch. Being the messenger of Panic doesn't work well for the GOP right now, though maybe the GOP wouldn't mind a good fight on their terms to divert issues to crisis. What shape we are in right at this moment is another unspoken question.

Democrats are loath to alarm for fear of waxing hawkishly before voters to look tough or looking weak to the nation at large. Someone's gotta to push the discourse, but who?. Do both Parties try to put things off until the crap blows and everyone is rushing to read the latest news update? Adversaries do tend to send coronation messages.

Conventional wisdom night says terror favors Clinton over Obama, but maybe not because some will link Iraq to our inability to contain Iran. Still, the last big push against AQ in Iraq is underway. If Malaiki can deliver some progress with Iraq troops standing by Summer's end, we can reduce numbers and Iraq becomes the advantage McCain hoped, and perhaps Hillary as well, that is I think Hillary and McCain have the most to gain by Iraq improvement.

This will be a race towards planned expectations, oratory skill and charismatic “style”. Iran and other situations could prove national distraction however and force policy debates in a time of crisis. Media plays a huge role and judging by their bias in NH and the voter's rejection, they might take a different spin to regain their hold.

Reality, like F-15s has dangerous cracks and pits. I wonder at what point beyond meaningless blather over Pakistan media had recently, will we address real possibilities. What real options do the candidates have for Pakistan beside Richardson’s great ideas? How will a candidate respond to threats? How different will they be from their opposition?

Meanwhile Iranian aggression, trouble in Lebanon, chaos in Pakistan meets a new DOD shift to Afghanistan as Obama, Clinton and Biden suggested. What is the strategic thinking, or is it in autopilot and leaking?

At some point Obama must break the dovish pretense and explore what he would do as President in dealing with an attack on our warships. This will induce some convergence with Hillary because “talking to Iran” will go only so far. Even Obama knows that ALL candidates are well aware of how dangerous and determined our enemies are. It is not about Iraq or nukes and AQ in Pakistan.

Picture the oval office as fighters flew recon over Cuban missile batteries. Then picture the crisis over Iran with Obama or Hillary in charge. Events may prompt us to imagine based on several months of their campaigning and polciy positions. We will never make it all the way to November without something escalating. In the primary this favors anti-war on one side and bluster on the other. That dynamic hasn’t been in play for some time to the Republican disadvantage and Obama’s gain. It’ll never last. At some point this charade will lift and the question is whether world events come before the nominees lock things up. The closer the race, the more time for the news to shift the stumping.

If things heat up, what shape is our country really in? We need more than hope and change. Maybe we need a lot more Raptors.

As far as Obama, I think attrition works against him as does his eventual vetting and global tension. He must remain color neutral to avoid suicide whereas gender is different if carefully part of a grounded, empathic female of grace and clarity with a well-oiled on-target ground machine. Ah...there's the question, far greater than the rhetoric of fairy tales.

And Media is a fickled bunch.