A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics
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A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics | |
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October 04, 2007A Thought Or Three On Obama's Mistakes and Clinton's LikelinessClinton has widened her lead commandingly. At this point, it'd take the proverbial dead baby in the bed to keep her from winning the nomination (and, I'd say, from winning the election as well). That's made me think about what Obama did wrong, as at one point I was pulling for him. Well, for one thing, he had to outperform Hillary to win this. His personality is, IMHO, suitably leaderly and charismatic to win the job, but Hillary also shares the novel minority advantage. Biggest, of course, is the name-recognition factor. The Clinton name is associated with eight pretty good years in many minds, especially as with the inevitable weight of an other-party second term right at hand in bad relief (yeah, it was the other way around eight years ago, I'm just trying to explain where we are NOW). To win over that big name advantage, IMHO Obama would've had to do much better job on the policy front. He would've had to spend alot more time researching, talking about, and thinking about Iraq and at least one other policy area, as I see it. I still think she's likely to win over Giuliani in the general. She suffers little if atall from the branding and corruption woes incurred by Pelosi and Reid. The GOP will be at the height of revealed corruption and bad management (like every two-term President in history). And the in-power coalition (base and moderates) is, as usual after eight years, split, while we're tired of being out of power and will unite. Posted by Jon Kay at October 4, 2007 01:06 AMComments
Obama has outlined many policies on various issues. But it's difficult to articulate a complex policy in a minute and a half in the type of primary debate format we have. The policy details are out there, but you're not going to find them in the debates. Unfortunately, that's what voters primarily base their views on. Since very few are going to go out of their way and actually conduct their own research. Posted by: Jeff at October 4, 2007 12:14 PMH. Clinton energizes the right like no other Democratic candidate, so I can still see the Republicans uniting once again against a Clinton. It is for that reason I think she is the wrong candidate for the Dems, but am resigned that she will be the choice of the party. I certainly don’t see her as a slam dunk to win the election. Many voters will be looking to vote for a divided government, given the sad lessons of recent events and one party rule. Jeff I looked on Obama's site a month or so ago, and didn't see much then along the lines of innovative suggestions, or an Iraq policy looking at events in Iraq. H. Clinton energizes the right like no other Democratic candidate, That's what people used to say about one GW Bush. Now he's Bush II. I hope you're right about Congress, as I don't trust Clinton so much, much less Reid or Pelosi. But I have my doubts. Clinton is likely to have at least some coattails. The results of avoiding accountability in its years in power, though, will continue, and the GOP will continue to be looking even worse than Reid and Pelosi. I agree that Clinton will take the Democratic nomination. Obama's lack of experience has really shown through and has been expertly displayed by Hillary's campaign. Edwards is running for VP again, unwilling to attack Hillary. How she fares in the general, tho, is less certain. Of the GOP candidates, I see Giuliani as the one guy who could beat her. Polls show a generally favorable attitude toward him, not split like Hillary. I think he'll take a big chunk of the moderate and independent votes, and Hillary would motivate the hard right to vote for Giuliani even though they don't really care for him. If it's ANYBODY else from the GOP, I see another Clinton presidency. Posted by: WeekendPundit at October 8, 2007 02:15 PM |
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