A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics
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A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics | |
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June 08, 2007Open ThreadOpen thread, or as some folks in the weirder-accented local environs of MA say, "open tread." So tread wherever you want. My starter? Curt Schilling came within one out of a no-hitter. But don't feel sorry for him. ESPN says that the Blue Jays' Dave Steib came within a single out THREE TIMES. Poor b@$tard. Every time a no-hitter occurs, I regard it as an infrequent and remarkable but largely randomly determined event. When you look at the list of mediocrities who have done it and the list of outstanding pitchers who haven't, that tells a story. Not to say skill isn't involved. Sure it is. Mediocre guys do it on that day they had great stuff, for example. And Nolan Ryan doing it, what 7 or 8 times, also tells a story. Skill matters. But luck is inexorably involved as well. As the sabremetrically inclined will know, Voros McCracken touched on this when he demonstrated the very substantial luck component of baseball by showing that pitchers experience a great and largely random variation in batting average allowed on balls that are put into play. Pitchers don't seem to have the ability to, say, make ground balls more likely to be outs than singles, or to control fly balls so that they find outfielders' gloves. Posted by Kranky Kritter at June 8, 2007 12:39 PMComments
Shockers in the super-regional on ESPN. AT HOME, just a little ways up the road. Full-session tickets in my hand, completely sold out, record crowd expected. Baseball weekend! Damn NCAA no-beer/booze-in-stadium rules. Actually makes it worse--those determined to drink get tanked before the game and then sneak in hard liquor for ease of concealment, resulting in even drunker idiots. I shall wave at all from the outfield. We'll be parked at the table next to the camera tower.... Posted by: Tully at June 8, 2007 02:12 PMThat sounds like fun. College baseball is really good baseball, I usually watch some of the championship. The Red Sox drafted one of the pitchers who was a big star in last year's CWS, Daniel Bard, but he has struggled mightily so far in the minors. FWIW, If I had a kid that was a prospect, I couldn't see encouraging him to turn pro out of high school unless he was a going to be a real bonus baby that would get a big upfront offer like 300K+. Go to college, develop more there, get a free education that can be your fallback, and if you're really good, you get drafted higher.
Sadly I think we're losing a couple of our recruits to the MLB draft, right out of high school. I really do think that's foolish. Kids with that much talent should know the arm won't hold up forever, and the odds against them are long, while a free college education is begging for them. But yeah, if they were being offered a MAJOR signing bonus and were willing to bank it for future use, I might be a bit more ambivelent. I caught the Shockers' back-to-back wins against Arizona to win the regional as well. Very good baseball indeed. And I am very happy with home field for this playoff... Posted by: Tully at June 8, 2007 03:26 PMEnjoy, Tully! That does sound like fun. (envy, envy) We caught the Texas BB season opener at the nice local AAA field, but they've merely been good this season, and were lucky to get to the playoffs atall. There's a new centrist kid in the world - our wait's over. More later. There's a new centrist kid in the world - our wait's over. More later. There is a real philosophical divide between major league teams in regard to high school vs. college players. A lot of teams prefer to draft high school players because (1) they have more upside, and (2) you can get them to the majors at a younger age and, therefore, increase their prime years. Others prefer college players because they are easier to evaluate because they are older and have played better competition. Moreover, in terms of the players themselves, a high school player has more negotiating leverage because he can always go to college, whereas a college player has nowhere to go but back to school or out into the real world. And it's not like going to the NBA out of high school and sitting on the bench (obviously, not LeBron James' fate)because of the minor leagues. I have no problme with a kid coming out of high school going pro IF he is going to be a high draft pick. He will get a very large bonus and he still has plenty of time to go to college if baseball doesn't work out. Unfortunately, what you see in a lot of cases are guys that spend 10 or 12 years in the minors and never make it to the majors but have nothing else to fall back on. Posted by: Marc Schneider at June 11, 2007 04:21 PMHe will get a very large bonus and he still has plenty of time to go to college if baseball doesn't work out. But he sure won't be going on a sports scholarship, which for many of these players is the only hope of getting into one of the better schools. The second a player takes money for pro play of any kind they are completely and forever ineligible to be a college player. They can fall back on college if the pros don't work out. But they won't do so on a sportts scholarship. They can't play college-level at all once they make that move. I'll pass on describing the much-winked-at no-negotiation rules for baseball players, which the NCAA routinely pretends are not routinely violated both for high-school seniors but also for college juniors and seniors. Violation of those rules is supposed to end all eligibility as well, but they're apparently only for show. Posted by: Tully at June 11, 2007 06:43 PM |
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