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April 24, 2007

Who Wins at Chicken?

Doug Schoen suggests the battle between Democrats and President Bush over Iraq war funding is A Dangerous Game of Chicken for the Democrats:

It's a dynamic I know well. In 1995, I was one of the political consultants who advised President Clinton during the government shutdown, which was brought on by another clash between another assertive Congress and an equally determined president. Then as now, the stakes were high. Had we failed, Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich would have become America's de facto prime minister. Instead, Clinton's presidency was restored.

This time, if Democrats insist on their policy and public sentiment rallies behind them, the GOP collapse on national security issues will be complete. If, however, the public blames Democrats for risking troops in Iraq, congressional Democrats will have committed a political blunder nearly as dramatic as the invasion of Iraq itself. So who should swerve first? The lessons of 1995 suggest that Democrats today are on the verge of a major mistake...

...Democrats should not be misled by polls showing that most Americans support the idea of cutting off funding for the war unless benchmarks of success are reached. Of course they do, in the abstract. But Bush's counterargument -- that Democrats are prepared to undermine troops in the field -- will be a powerful one, in part because it is far more concrete than Democrats' complex, poll-tested plan....

...The 2008 election is the Democrats' to lose. Attempting to usurp the powers of the commander of the chief -- or risking the charge that Democrats have abandoned troops in the field -- is one of the few ways the party could jeopardize its seemingly impregnable position.

Read it all. Definitely food for thought for aggresive Democrats. The President is the commander-in-chief, not congress. Those are the constitution's rules. Not mine. IMO, the Democrats are poised to overplay their hand.

At this point, I am drawn to contemplate the likelihood of the following outcome regarding Iraq: we eventually withdraw as something resembling the current stalemate endures. Both sides blame the other. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

Posted by Kranky Kritter at April 24, 2007 06:26 AM
Comments

All good points. The GOP lost power in large part due their continual overreaches. I predicted that would happen right after the 2004 elections. It looks like the Dems are about to make the same mistake with this, with the consequences being even more severe.

Posted by: Rafique Tucker at April 24, 2007 05:03 PM

The difference that while the GOP overreached, the Dems,according to the Pew polls are not reaching far enough. Americans want the Democrats to stop George from doing more of the same. Washington Post and ABC Newspoll earlier this month said that 66 per cent of respondents think the war with Iraq was not worth fighting. That's a huge number, much larger than what the GOP had to work with when it tried cutting social programs in the 90's.

Furthermore I think its a mistake to discount "corrupt republican" fatigue and other factors like the 9 trillion debt, the total disastrous inability to run big government, the politicization of the Justice dept., the now constant drumbeat of scandal (today the Tillman/Lynch episode front and center, tomorrow Doolittle?) and a Lot of etc.s Just think, last week FEMA was still UNABLE TO FILE A NATURAL DISASTER PLAN. Uh, maybe they can dust off the successful ones from the Clinton FEMA. Can we mention 3+ billion in bad FEMA contracts? and counting? I don't think that the electorate is done with the GOP. The neocons have really dragged it down. The only GOP causes left are abortion and gays. The GOP has major structural problems to deal with and they won't go away until there's a clean sweep of the current power structure.
That's about it.

Posted by: Marcus at April 25, 2007 01:10 AM

Splendid lathering Marcus. Don't forget to rinse and repeat.

I note how you describe those poll results. I think it's questionable (and risky for congressional democrats) to connect the "shouldn't have started war" bone to the "withdraw asap" bone.

I am totally unshocked that, with the benefit of hindsight, 2 out of 3 folks feels the invasion was a mistake. But hopefully they're smart enough to know that you can't uncrack an egg. If 2 out of 3 Americans agree it was a mistake to drop the egg on the floor, that doesn't mean that 2 out of 3 Americans thinks its OK to walk away and leave the mess behind.

Time will tell. I feel pretty confident that if Congress doesn't find a way to work with Bush to fund the troops, the people will blame the democrats in charge. Folks are unlikely to look kindly on the use of the troops as pawns caught in the crossfire between Bush and congress. Bush is the C in C, period. That's the way it is.

We'll see. I expect the democrats to back down and provide the funding with no more than a vague non-binding blandishment included in the wording. And we all know how much force comes with "non-binding."

Posted by: bk at April 25, 2007 12:23 PM

comment thread is hysterical

There will be more attacks and more bluster from our adversaries. Once things get serious again, the Democrats will say and do what? Claim the attacks are Bush-related? Notice attacks on Chinese oil workers in Africa? Note probable French victor claiming AQ in North Africa is tied with Iran as Europe's greatest threat. Note POlls in Europe backing action against Iran (52%) as they discuss selected enrichment offers to Iran. Note Syria positioning missiles near Israeli border. Note attack by Hamas on Israel. Note..note..note..etc.

TDS made fun of Reid. McCain held his own. SF alerts us to reality check.

At some point before 2008, conflict will start again and the American people might not find much solace in the five year chant of "Bush is the cause of everything bad". As I said before, Bush, Democrats and extremists have created a perfect storm. It will pass. The Republicans gave Clinton a hard time for five plus years, yet he got some things done. Now the Democrats chase politics. This cycle of crap must end. The question is; will our adversaries be better armed and situated when the rain lets up? Should Dems win in 2008 will the wmd genie be out of the box by 2012? The steps we take now may destroy a Party in the future aftermath of terror and extremism. I am not sure what we have learned from 9/11 or even from reading the daily reports from our adversaries.

Posted by: Maxtrue at April 25, 2007 04:56 PM
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