Centerfield

I think that's a fair criticism of Stratfor, generally, Jon, though I'll save for later a debate over the exact dynamics of the UK / French rivalry.

The reason I link occasionally to Stratfor's free columns is that, however imprecisely, they do make the reader think about the deeper historical forces which affect global opinion and international foreign policy decisions. Too many people in this country have a very simplistic notion of foreign policy, leading them to conclude, for instance, that if only we wouldn't have invaded Iraq, the rest of the world would still love us.

As I pointed out in either the post you link to or another recently, all the other countries in the U.N. are very busy pursuing their own self-interests, but some critics of the American goverment assume that, or at least act as if, the other countries have no self-interests, and are only promoting the "greater good." Stratfor usually points out some of the larger issues being played out in the controversy du jour.

But as I say, you're quite right that they don't always go deep enough (at least in any given article) and their predictions aren't always on the mark. I've noticed in their bulletins about Iran, they tend to keep going "ooh, Iran has really got us over a barrel, there's not much way out of this one." Then we do something which seems obvious to me, but they seem to find rather unexpected (like fighting back), and boom, the whole dynamic changes.