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March 22, 2007

Horse race thread

I'm embarrassed by my weakness, but I can't seem to avert my eyes from the daily coverage of the horse race. If you are similarly cursed, this thread is for you.

My summary of the race at this point would be as follows: Giuliani is doing remarkably well and improving in the early polls, McCain appears to be regrouping, Hillary is proving that she is tough, Obama is learning about the Big Show, and Romney's ability to draw support is theoretical at this point. I also think that Al Gore has a surprise up his sleeve.

Posted by Todd Pearson at March 22, 2007 01:38 PM
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Posted by: heyhey at March 22, 2007 02:20 PM

If Al Gore thinks he has a surprise up his sleeve, I think he'll discover that voters have a rude awakening up theirs.

I'm interested in the shifting primaries and whether the result will be an unsatisfactory enough outcome to generate support for brokering a cooperative scheduling system that rotates positions from election to election.

My take is that Romney WAS poised to become the default standard bearer for the GOP's socon wing, but Thompson is making a bid. That's an interesting development, because I think Thompson is far more palatable to your average socon, but at the expense of palatability to the gen pub. I think Fred's appeal come the general election would be limited. But my feeling is that his entry, should it occur, is being done primarily for the sake of giving socons and those who fashion themselves true conservatives a more genuine proxy. Fred can at least temporarily move the GOP to the right in a way that I don't think Romney is even interested in doing. That's good for socons, but is it good for the party's 2008 prospects? I'm not convinced it actually matters. My gut says the GOP nom will be a relative moderate like Guiliani, and if the socons don't like it, they'll have to decide whether to hold their nose and vote the party line or stay home out of spite and give the democrats a cakewalk.

Notably, Obama and Clinton may leave the anti-war left with similar choice.

Both notions warm my heart some.

Posted by: bk at March 22, 2007 02:24 PM

A few random responses:
- Stage IV metastatic breast cancer...Senator Edwards,spend this time with your wife
- Obama campaign certainly responded more quickly to a brewing Internet controversy than the Edwards campaign
-Why is every time I see something about Thompson running for president I think its an early promo for an upcoming movie? Well he's at least got the military experience since he was the comanding office of Naval Aircraft Carrier..... oh wait a minute , that was "The Hunt for Red October"...OK please re-orient me, is he really a lawyer or does he just play one on TV?

Posted by: C3 at March 22, 2007 07:52 PM

I still think Giuliani and Clinton will likely win the nominations (continuing the fight interrupted by Giuliani's cancer), and Clinton will win the overall.

Posted by: Jon Kay at March 23, 2007 02:10 AM

Tom Delay was on WPRO this morning puffing his book and his achievements, and fronting for the further right.

The talking points?...

1...the GOP congress did amazing things but the evil media didn't cover them

2...the democrats have built a vast network led by rabid leftists and if good conservatives don't fight it now, the evil Hillary Clinton is as good as elected...visit our website where we expose the vast left wing conspiracy.

3...the current alleged frontrunners in the GOP are a creation of the media, but it's way too early, and smart conservatives ought to ignore this and wait for someone of solid conservative timber to emerge.

Honestly, it had the sorry stink of sad and half-hearted salesmanship. My mileage there of course.

I'm not sure how much longer the "it's way too early meme" can survive. Not saying there hasn't been any credence to it, for sure. But with CA and very possibly NY and maybe other states moving their primaries to February, we're less than a year from what could be the decisive contests in picking who the nominees will be. So let's note that if there's one thing we've agreed upon here in the past it's this: early participation is the only plausible option if you complain that the final choice is always between the lesser of 2 unpalatable evils.

So if you're too busy to pay attention to who's running now, maybe because you're poring over your stock investments on the internet while the Pussycat Dolls train your daughters for adulthood, you'll probably get the candidates you deserve.

Posted by: bk at March 23, 2007 09:20 AM

Brian,

Delay is a joke and a bad one at that. You seem right in your speculations. I predict Hillary v Giuliani unless there is an attack here, or if there are noticeable successes so McCain can say "I told you so". I wouldn't write him off. Bill was here in NY yesterday on the upper West side with thirty sweaty women in a heath club. He is the difference that will beat Obama. I still think Hillary/Obama beats Giuliani.

I don’t know if you all watch Colbert, but he is smoking……….

What, I'm not sure, but he is smokin....

Posted by: Maxtrue at March 23, 2007 12:05 PM

Do you think the bad blood between Hillary and Obama could be reconciled to be on the same ticket?

I can't see either of them beating Rudy, IF he gets the nomination.

Thats my 2 cents.

Posted by: Bernie at March 23, 2007 06:34 PM
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