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February 09, 2007

Another Prediction Right On Target: Al'Maliki

Well, Brian, take a bow. I think it was you who was prophesying that the pressure the Bush Administration applied would result in al'Maliki trying to throw out a stern anchor.

Sure enough, here it is. Or maybe he just wants to slow his coalition's collapse. Anyway, here's a report giving excuses why that nasty law stuff should'n't be enforced on the poor militias, in the process in effect blaming those evil Sunnis for Shi'a gang bad behavior.

There's an interesting relationship between reports and politicians, isn't there? This is the second report pointer on Centerfield just today that probably nobody can learn anything from, really. But they give their creators political cover.

Posted by Jon Kay at February 9, 2007 01:17 PM
Comments

Not sure I desereve any credit. probably based on something Tully or Bobby pointed me at. I know some folks have suggested Maliki would try dragging his feet.

IMO, the Us wants Maliki to see his choices as constrained to "get on the train and play conductor" and "get out of the train's way." This is an interesting development because it suggests that Maliki and his cohorts realize there's another option, which is "the Iraqi government will decide what to do, not America."

Of course, if they decide "wrong," we may tell them they are on their own. So what it might really be is something more like judicious ass-covering by Shi'ite pols who want credit for trying to prevent confrontation with the shi'ite militias.

Posted by: bk at February 9, 2007 01:58 PM

"Ahmed Shames, a member of Maliki's media office who was a co-author of the report, said in an interview that it will be widely read in the government, but "it does not mean the government will follow these recommendations.""

In fact, there has been activity against militias and two days of Maliki crying for the start of clean out operations in Baghdad. Was this struggle not obvious? The capture of Sadr associates and Iranians doesn't please the Shia. In some places, Shia militias have brought relative calm so economic development can go forward. This report is local leadership protecting their asses and Maliki is must be quite aware of the hole he is in. With 100 billion, the Sunnis can do alot of damage. The idea of AQ supplied with advanced shoulder launched missiles via Syria/Russia/Iran is not good news. And the Kurds role here? Disorder might move troops into their region while violence plays out, thus countering Iranian and Turkish pressure. Expect much more of this while Sunnis arm and Shia balk at Maliki's forced pacification. This Shia report is the equivalent of the Baker report. Let us see if Maliki does to this what Bush did to the ISG. “I accept it, BUT really violent militias must go”.

And I think Bobby, in response to Jon, mentioned the foot dragging and political ties of Maliki. Iraq is very complex and will probably require much more escalation to force a center path.

Another sterling achievement has been the truce between Hamas and Fatah. Now they both agree to fall short of recognition of Israel in a bid for international money. Saudis are not likely to tolerate bogus promises on the Shia side, nor is Israel or the US. Let us hope the special ops Iraqi Unit gets real big and follows a nationalist course working with the US.


Posted by: Maxtrue at February 9, 2007 03:34 PM

My pet peeve today is being run by the 2nd team.

Rather more than a fair share of high US gummint, er, talent came from Texas. Especially Central Texas.

But the GOP runs Texas as well, basically on the 2nd team. Texas contracts are wimpily negotiated, not, so much, I believe because of malfeasance as because of lack of talent. It feels to me like just about every aspect of state govt is worse-run than before 2000; I mean, you don't expect great government in Texas, but it used to be better.

Posted by: Jon Kay at February 10, 2007 12:26 AM
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