A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics
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A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics | |
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January 19, 2007China: Look What We Can Do!China last week successfully used a missile to destroy an orbiting satellite, U.S. government officials told CNN on Thursday....According to a spokesman for the National Security Council, the ground-based, medium-range ballistic missile knocked an old Chinese weather satellite from its orbit about 537 miles above Earth....The test took place on January 11....Aviation Week and Space Technology first reported the test: "Details emerging from space sources indicate that the Chinese Feng Yun 1C (FY-1C) polar orbit weather satellite launched in 1999 was attacked by an asat (anti-satellite) system launched from or near the Xichang Space Center."...A U.S. official...said that U.S. "space tracking sensors" confirmed that the satellite is no longer in orbit and that the collision produced "hundreds of pieces of debris," that also are being tracked. Why did China do this? Why does a dog lick his.... Posted by Kranky Kritter at January 19, 2007 12:06 PMComments
Two knee jerk reactions: LOL... can anyone imagine how the Democrats would react if Bush tested a space weapon? And imagine Bush killing a critic with Polonium or beheading captured insurgents. Iran and North Korea could test nukes together and Americans might still be focused on Gitmo or an additional carrier in the Gulf. Remember why Bush decided to increase snooping in the China Sea which China claims is its territory? And who cries about Russia testing a maneuverable warhead or Iran equipping its subs with the capacity to run silent for a week? China knows that our satellite systems give the ability to target almost anything anywhere. Why they would want to expose their capability now is interesting. Maybe they think that Bush is so under siege that Congress will not respond to the test. I wonder. Would Democrats call Chinese test an "escalation"? And how will they react? North Korea says progress is taking place in nuke talks and China tests a space weapon. As I said elsewhere, Obama, Hillary, Biden and others have alot of explaining to do. Our moratorium on space weapons did what? Here comes the Death Stars. Just as a note: it would be easy for NASA to take out a satellite. Same with the Russians. In fact Russia probably helped China and might easily help Iran. From the BBC: Foreign ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao said: "I can't say anything about the reports. I really don't know." But he added: "China advocates the peaceful use of space and opposes the weaponisation of space, and also opposes any form of arms race."
Will they pay us billions if their debris hits our near-by eyes in space? How about the space station? Posted by: Matrue at January 19, 2007 05:26 PMJust a note: Gary Samore, the director of studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said in an interview: “I think it makes perfect sense for the Chinese to do this both for deterrence and to hedge their bets. It puts pressure on the U.S. to negotiate agreements not to weaponize space.” Yes, that is the ticket. It makes perfect sense. Am I the only one noticing a drift to the Left by the CFL? And the NYT doesn't mention Chinese anti-sat laser tests, or the mounting of lasers on their tanks. I get the sense that the Times lays a lot of blame at Bush's feet. I think China believes that Patriot system and other defenses rely on Sats. One way to defeat our missile defense is to blind or destroy our space-based eyes. This may be less about our using space, but rather our lead in missile defense and the ability to exploit space to control autonomous systems such as killer drones on earth. In any case here is a 2003 report on ASATs. Globalsecurity.org states China's public policy on space: "China's declaratory policy is that China explores and develops technology in outer space for peaceful purpose only. China always maintains that the outer space should be free of any weapon and that to prevent arms race in outer space confirms with interests of all countries. China is willing to have cooperation with other countries in this regard. China's declaratory policy is that China has never and it will not participate in arms race in outer space in any form." Another link to Chinese military technology. See remarks about lasers. Posted by: Matrue at January 19, 2007 08:13 PM
Posted by: Matrue at January 22, 2007 08:57 AM
I agree with the Times. You don't have to be a foreign relations expert or a left leaning council to understand that this missile firing is precisely what it is, a show of chinese capability. Notice how little this has been talked about. Does the US want to raise a big stink that leads to closer examination of who can do what with outerspace technology? Nope, we don't. Posted by: bk at January 22, 2007 09:58 AMI differ Brian. There are many allies abroad who are furious with China and Russia actually claiming no test happened. Domestically, the Left does not want to discuss this Chinese test because it STRENGTHENS the need for Space Defense (how about anti-ASAT weapons?) and brings to attention the fact China has tested other ASAT systems that could blind or destroy us in space. You suggest this test does the opposite. China, after all, is building ICBM to point at us as well as helping other countries who soon will also possess the ability to use ASATs and long range missiles. Biden claims this missile build-up is the result of Bush advocating missile defense, but that is disputed by facts. Russian upgrades and the Chinese roll out happened long before our modifying the ABM treaty. The Chinese claim that the whole of the China Sea is theirs because they do not want our snooping on their SDI programs. I suppose their trailing our fleet, blinding our pilots and satellites and conducting military maneuvers near Tiawan during “PEACE MISSION 2005” was just a reasonable cry for sanity. On another related note. The same day a " Chinese weather satellite” was destroyed, the US lost communication with a new experimental satellite. Let's be clear. Reagan proposed a missile defense shield, which he offered to Russia. Today, Russia and China are very opposed to a missile defense shield here on earth to protect allies in Europe and the Far East. Do the Democrats really want to deny credible defense to Poland or Japan? Do they now want to shut down missile defense? Our adversaries know if they can disrupt our satellites they can neutralize a significant US deterrence. Lasers will undoubtedly result in the shielding satellites. ASATS will require us to make billion-dollar satellites maneuverable and possibly have anti-ASAT systems in space nearby. These developments would constitute "weapons in space". China makes a point by creating dangerous debris in the orbit of our military satellites? Again; 'But a report, “Missile Defense, the Space Relationship and the 21st Century,” researched by a group of organizations that focus on national security issues and published late last year by the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, called the military development of the high frontier vital to the nation’s protection from a wide variety of threats — including Chinese arms. “Without the means to dissuade, deter and defeat the growing number of strategic adversaries now arrayed against it,” the group warned, “the United States will be unable to maintain its status of global leadership.” ' NYT One finds Russia pretending that an inflatable shuttle that can fit in an ICBM is not a maneuverable warhead. LOL (and so far it has failed) You have Chinese energy beam experiments (some directed at the US). You have foreign warheads and cruise missiles (see Iran's claims) that are invisible to radar. You have North Korea determined to fit a nuke in their long-range missiles (see one explanation for blast yields in last NK test). I find it rather humorous that China and Russia do not want our allies to protect themselves with a ground based missile defense as they help those nations we are trying to protect ourselves from. This shot across the bow was more about Taiwan, American conventional capabilities and our emerging defense alliances. The knee jerk reaction to posit reasonable arguments to the Chinese view, flies in the face of actual fact. The clearest reason for weapons in space (missile defense) is North Korea and Iran, which receive technical help and political shelter from the Chinese and Russians. Any agreement on space will involve an end to the proliferation of delivery systems that put us and satellites at risk. Should we conduct an ASAT test and tell media it is a cry for the Russians and Chinese to stop helping extremists build missiles and delivery systems? How about the WMD to put in their warheads?
Honestly Max, I don't know what all you're on about regarding what and why "the left" doesn't want to talk about and Reagan's plans for missile defense and so on and so forth. I'm not saying anything AT ALL about the left or any of the other things you mention. My point is that China marches to China's drummer. They do what they want. This makes most of what they do understandable. IMO, China shot down a satellite with a missile because they wanted to, because they could, and because it would give them pleasure. Any feathers ruffled outside China? Not China's problem. Adds to the pleasure. China usually seems to act this way. I am sure China is confident in their belief that there's not a fricken thing we or anyone else can do about this. It's not just "look what we can do!" It's "look what we can do that the rest of the non-chinese world can't do a fricken thing about." A pretty simple message really. Posted by: bk at January 22, 2007 04:14 PMLet me understand. China tests an ASAT to prompt us to negotiate weapon-free space, or China wants to demonstrate (for pleasure) their ability to blow up a satellite (and many other things) because they CAN ? Is this the gist of what we should take away from the recent Chinese test? I elaborated above to those comments in the NYT's article that suggested the test was a fair escalation in negotiating a space treaty. Perhaps it was a warning to all who have space assets to consider what technology China could transfer or use in case of international conflict. Lasers and missiles have already tied outer space to terrestrial conflict. Space is a critical part of our military deployment in the Gulf. It connects our theaters from from Asia to Africa. In the end, the test may work against China's "demonstration as leverage". It may not have been worth the counter-effect it will produce. The International community could easily sue if debris damages the Space Station or near-by satellites. As far as China doing something provocative because it gives them pleasure, I am not sure that is what is going on. China is increasingly becoming prone to unrest and its neighbors are not all too thrilled. Modern communications is making China's society a bit porous. Conflict and sanctions around the world will produce decreased GDP, which the Chinese leadership greatly fears. That is one reason they put their money in the US. Most of the technology used in their ASAT test (we tested twenty years ago) was either stolen, bought or copied (not trying to take anything away from Chinese expertise). They are only giving an excuse for those here and in the West (including India and Japan) to accelerate their arms development. Remember also, a Chinese cruise missile hit an Israeli ship. A Chinese missile nearly hit our central command days before our full-scale invasion of Iraq. What technology went through Iran and helped down a black hawk in Iraq? No, I do not think China does things usually because it can. Their moves are more calculated for profit, warning or compromise and in this case, their “test” might prove to be more self-defeating coming weeks before Iranian missile games. "I am sure China is confident in their belief that there's not a fricken thing we or anyone else can do about this." Perhaps a 1000kw laser? This summer we can fire our own ballistic missile up at an old satellite and zap it with a laser before it gets there. We can borrow the money fromm China (with a promise to let them eventually steal the blueprints), or place a 2% tariff on Chinese goods...
Posted by: Maxtrue at January 23, 2007 02:09 AM
As Olberg points out, all ICBMs are technically space-based. For decades, the Russians have been trying to advance manueverable warheads and an ICBM-lofted mini inflatable shuttle that could circle the globe for months with whatever payload it picks up (a pre-positioned weapon?) and then re-enters (and maneuvers). Of course, the Russians say they are building it for other reasons (see link), but the capacity is there and Olberg points out past secret Russian military policy. Imagine if we lofted a robotic shuttle on an ICBM that could chase down any satellite for the purpose of "repairing it, or bringing it back to earth for servicing". Would that be an escalation? What if the Russians tested new materials that cloaked a satellite (or an Iranian warhead) or one that could receive and store substantial power from a ground based energy beam? Certainly a dual use threat. Once 100kw lasers are obtainable, mounting one inside a satellite with maneuverability is an unverifiable stone's throw away from a nasty ASAT. There is no treaty that forbids nuclear power in space. This is another loophole in the presently unverifiable realm of space. Of course, Global Strike suggests a wider use of space (a bit alarming) and I am hardly calling for the US unilateral militarization of space. Just be aware that it is already such a place and that the behavior of all parties and a reasonable system of verification will determine the degree of space escalation. For now it might be our answer to the asymmetry of the threats WE face. And we should hardly negotiate that away without a clear deal on missiles and WMD here on earth. The use of lasers, the reliance on satellites for military operations, the tracking of military deployment, the operation of missile defense all rely on space. The US is in a position to “plan” for the rapid protection of our satellites while ALL parties create a reasonable means to verify space activity and curtail the need for missile defense in the first place. The Chinese would not reveal the content of their experimental payload during their last manned space mission. I believe they crossed over America numerous times. They have taken provocative actions in the past which neither promotes negotiation nor serves as a serious warning about their capabilities.. If they plan to dock at the Space Station, they will need to “hit it”. The Russian position is hilarious given their behavior and former nuclear space ambitions. It is more a reaction to our plans to curtail the Space Station, our technical successes in the MDA than commentary on a Space Treaty the US has prevented.. The 16 links above should about do it for now..... Posted by: Matrue at January 25, 2007 10:44 AM"Analysts said the test represented an indirect threat to U.S. defense systems by raising the possibility that its spy satellites could be shot down. The threat wouldn't affect the anti-missile system, which relies only on ground-based radar." AP Yeah? I would love to know what "analyst" came up with this........ The Airborne laser platform and other missile defense systems do rely on "spy satellites". We are testing sensors in space that can spot missiles AS THEY LIFT OFF. AP is a great window on the world. Yes? 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