Centerfield

The Iraqi Militia Lifetime Employment Act of 2006

That's what I'm calling the Iraq Study Group recommendations. They would just lead to further non-containment of Iraqi militia and continue increases in violence. The problems posed by the militia are well-documented in the excellent first part of the report, notably including plenty of ethnic cleansing, but the report's recommendations on fixes would just allow them to continue getting worse.

The fundamental trouble is the report blames political and diplomatic problems rather than a lack of enforcement on militia increases. Though they do give themselves some political cover, it looks to me like the biggest reasons militia operate with increasing force are the same underlying reasona as unchecked bullies anywhere else in the world: because they can, and because it's fun and profitable.

Right now, the US is making no direct effort to bring the biggest, most blatant, and most dangerous militia, Sadr's, down to size. In fact, US troops are really only trying to take down militias that attack US troops (mostly Sunnis - Sadr is a Shi'ite). What would happen to US domestic order if the FBI decided to just make a deal where the Mafia agreed not to shoot at the FBI if the FBI stopped shooting at and indicting Mafiosos? That's precisely the deal we've made with Sadr. You'd expect exactly what we've seen in Iraq: ever-increasing violence in increasingly gang-laden cities, and, after a couple of years, politicians making protection deals.

The theory appears to have been that Iraqis could eventually deal with militia threats themselves. The reality has been effective inaction, probably because of the security threat militias pose to politicians.

Let's take a look at the report's approach to security and what we should do with our army:

RECOMMENDATION 43: Military priorities in Iraq must change, with the highest priority given to the training, equipping, advising, and support mission and to counterterrorism.

That set of priorities is unlikely to ever let us curtail the militia because it doesn't matter how good or plentiful the Iraqi troops are, the militias will stay ugly and near power. The Prime Minister of Iraq appears to have made deals with the worst militia, al-Sadr's, probably to avoid being shot. That has to include promises not to take action against them. Therefore, additional measures are needed to stop the escalating violence. And the same dynamic is likely to apply to his successors, just as few of his predecessors did much about the militia.

To my mind, getting the militia under control is the only fatal problem our occupation faces in Iraq. It's definitely the reason violence and ethnic cleansing are escalating, and democracy in threat. I'm not hostile to taking action on some of the recommendations, but if I'd done the report, I'd just have one recommendation:

JON'S ONE AND ONLY RECOMMENDATION: Stop making deals with the militias and fight them! We must fight Sadr and other militias on our own initiative, and on our own plan, using Coalition troops. The Iraqi government is unlikely to do that of its own accord, since many Iraqi politicians depend on militias to not be shot. We have enough troops there to do this right now, given appropriate planning. We don't have to get every militiaman - just forcing Sadr and his force structure off the streets and into hiding would be a big advance.

UPDATE: I notice that Iraqi politicians are trying to form a new government that doesn't depend on militias. So maybe there's some hope. Maybe. But notice: dealing with the militias is easy for us, with a huge army, and no security threat to our politicians, but hard and risky (fatal?) for them. Any militia-free government will have to live in terror. Shouldn't we help them more with this problem that's easy for us and so hard for them?