Centerfield

Of course, your third one is a gimme. And this isn't baseball.

Well, I'm pretty much in agreement with that, although I'm still optimistic about the Dems winning the Senate (51-50), as well as the House. Of course, Katherine Harris' demise is a certainty, and a cause of celebration (modest celebration that doesn't devolve into an unhealthy obsession with the ruin of even people who deserve it).

I'll agree with those guesses. I think it's still up in the air with the Senate, but it is looking like the Dems will get the house -- but not enough of it to make any real difference.

Actually, I find myself kinda hoping for a Dem-led House -- just to watch Pelosi tank it for the Dems...

I didn't think that I needed to say this, but the Katherine Harris prediction was intended to state the obvious.

Between the GOP's very efficient get out the vote effort and shenanigan's like the usual package of dirty tricks I'm rather pessimistic about this election and the future. Especially now that the only protection as per the Bill of Right is that I don't have to quarter soldiers in my house if I don't want to.

LMAO, Marcus. Spare me the wingnut hyperbole.

The usual package of dirty tricks? So, we can expect Democrats to vandalize GOP vehicles to keep voters from the polls, buy votes from poor folks, call GOP voters and try to convince them that the election was on a different day,have Bill Clinton threaten GOP poll watchers, harrass GOP voters at the polls, and send union thugs to force their way into campaign offices and assault campaign workers?

Gee, I hope not.

Well, if I still had the right of freedom of speech, I'd predict the GOP to squeak by and keep control of both chambers. But since Marcus inf*rms me that the Bill of Rights no longer exists, perhaps my prediction counts as hate speech and I better keep my mouth shut...

Dems take the House by a good margin by winning 25 seats and tie the Senate by taking PA, RI, MT, OH, and MO. I think they will hold NJ (they seem to be immune to charges of corruption there) but lose TN and VA...although I am hoping that Harold Ford can pull out a miracle in my home state.

My (less obvious, less precise) predictions:

Republicans end up with between 49 and 52 Senate seats.

Democrats either come just short of taking the House (216-219) or take it by a large margin (>225-210).

Diebold.

PatHMV: your right of fr** speech has already been taken by the sp*mb*ts

House Dems 220-215

Senate Republicans only by Cheney 50-48-2

L*L, *ber*n!

#$@&^%*, $$#@!

ROFL!!! Glad to see that Tully understands current political hyperbole!

Who's in charge of this outfit these days anyway?

"Diebold....." sorry for the Citizen Kanish retort...computer was crashing.
The list you give Tully is a reflection on the sorry state of affairs in voting. Personally I have no doubt that the list of GOP transgrssions in Ohio are enough to balance that out. I do remind you that the GOP spent nearly a million dollars to defend the guilty guys who jammed phone lines in New Hampshire.

The thing that is most at stake in this election is the power of subpoena. Should the Democrats win control of one the House or Senate that will be the GOP nightmare scenario because then all the stuff that's been shoved under the mat will have a way of getting out. One example is the Senate Intelligence committee part 2 on the Iraq intelligence and how it was used by the WH. Remember that the chairman refused to continue it because we were too close to the 2004 elections. It's almost 2007.
You can also bet that there will be more hearings on prisoner abuse, the lack of planning that went into the post war iraq scenario etc. There will also be hearings on the abyssmal corruption going on in the Dept of Interior, the voting situation in 2004 in Ohio will also get a look.
No doubt about it. THe GOP is running scared. In terms of tactics they're no longer really talking about the issues, they're talking about the voter turnout and how their more efficient system will beat the Democrats. It's an admirable system to be sure but such reliance reflects how worried the GOP is about facing accountability.

It's been 4 years of one party rule and no accountability. A rubber stamp. I think America is tired of that and it's reflected in the current polling, most telling of which is the one that says 52% of Americans want Dems to control Congress.

I will say that to the credit of the CA GOP they have asked Nguyen to withdraw. Although the cynic within says this has more to do with damage control.

CPD(tm), Marcus. After the first round swap (necessary to show that it's pots calling kettles etc.) it's pointless. I'm sure you believe that the GOP demons are SO much worse than the Dem demons. That's more a reflection on your own mindset than anything else.

But I do love the "they do it so it's OK for us to break people's arms" implication. High-minded of you.

Give me a little happy gridlock. Some of the best economic years of this country have been when we had split government.

Personally, I am not too concerned about a year or so of investigations. Besides, if the Dems really screw it up, they will only be there short term. Almost calling the "not-Bush" bluff. Dem House and Republican Senate would be interesting to see in the budget process. Even if the Dems get both, the veto pen is still there. So I do not see the saftey of the republic imperiled by the Dems in Congress.

Give me a little happy gridlock.

King Log! I like King Log.

Jim, I don't know about you, but I remember all too well the utterly wasted legislative year or two spent dealing with the Clinton impeachment. I don't want to revisit that, with either side. But with John Conyers as chairman of the House judiciary committee, you can bet that that's exactly what we'll see should the Democrats take over the House. Want the Dems to take over in 2008 in the House, ok, but not this year, please.

As far as predictions go, the Dems would have to take eight out of nine toss-ups and leaners to get there, and I just don't see it. I expect the GOP to lose about three seats and maintain a majority. The House is much tougher to call. I expect a GOP loss of between 8 and 22 seats, and even with all the last-minute polls in hand I wouldn't place any bets on control shifts.

The Crystal Ball has good posts on the subject, including one today
on how the Senate might change hands as well as the House.

Good news, as far as I am concerned.

In Connecticut's U.S. Senate race, a new Quinnipiac poll shows Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) opening a massive lead on challenger Ned Lamont (D). Lieberman now holds a 52% to 35% advantage in his re-election race. Alan Schlesinger (R) gets just 7%.

Pat, I am not as pessimistic to believe that an impeachment process is likely at all. As I have stated before, impeachment would be their version of the nuclear option. The moment it is unleashed, all work stops and the Democrats will blow a chance to build for 2008. It is political suicide for no purpose. If the Dems get control of both the House and Senate, which I don't think will happen, it might be a little more possible. Impeachment without a chance of removal would not be a good idea. After the way the impeachment of Clinton went, I really have trouble finding any issue actually getting to the House floor. There will be investigations out the wazoo. By the time any actual impeachment motion would come around, the investigations will have had all of the juicy bits they want out and in the public for the 2008 election. I could not see an official impeachment motion on the floor until 2008 and I think they will already be too busy with the Presidential primaries to even want to bog down in actual impeachment hearings.

I would rather the Dems get in and screw things up now. The idea of waiting until 2008 and possibly having the Dems in control of both branches worries me more.

Republicans pull this one out. Because of security issues and immigration and all the lingering doubts about Democratic policies, the main story of this election will be: Who can provide a meaningful alternative to the Republicans? And does redistricting effectively prevent democracy in America.

The Dems will win the national popular vote for the House but fail to win control: 219 GOP - 216 Democrats.

Senate: 53-45-2. Lieberman wins by 1 point. DeWine, Santorum, Burns lose. Talent, Corker, Kyl, Allen win. Menendez loses to Tom Kean, Jr. in New Jersey. Cardin narrowly beats Steele in Maryland.

Other upset wins: Graf (AZ-5), Hostettler (IN-08), Shaw (FL), and Shays (CT-4).

Most of the GOP losses will be where scandal has touched down: Delay's open seat (TX-22), Ney's open (OH-18), Foley's open (FL-16), Sherwood (PA-10), and Weldon (Pa-07). Several freshmen and sophomores defeated: Sodrel and Chocola in Indiana. Jim Gerlach (PA-06) loses. Geoff Davis (KY-04) loses to Ken Lucas. Thelma Drake (VA-02). Simmons (CT-02).

Four open seats lost by GOP: Nussle open (IA-01), Mark Kennedy open (MN-06) and Beauprez open (CO-07) go to the Dems.

Bean (IL-08) is the only Democrat to go down to defeat.

Democrats will barely take control of the House picking up 18 seats, avoiding a much needed tail spin and possible rediscovery of what it is they stand for as a party. The Kosites will declare success... The Democratic potential nominees will pander to liberals only to get crushed by McCain or Giuliani in 2008.

They will pick up 4 seats in the Senate and the Republican majority will be saved by centrists Lincoln Chafee and Tom Kean.

Both houses of Congress will be more divided than at any other time in the history of the United States, leaving Congress with its lowest approval ratings ever, a backlash against incumbents of both parties in 2008, and over use of the word "reform."

The final tally?

Senate:

51 R - 47 D - 2 I

House:

219 D - 216 R

Clarification: I carelessly put Lieberman and Jeffers in my "D" category because I assume that they will both caucus with the Democrats. Otherwise, Mathew and I are in complete agreement with the exception that he is not willing to go out on a limb regarding Katherine Harris. :)

Actually, Jeffords is on his way out. Likely replacement: Independent Socialist Bernie Sanders.

I am not sure Shaw will pull it out in Florida. Collateral damage of the Foley affair could be the kicker. Extensive coverage of Foley in that region.

Florida-13 is very questionable for the GOP, Kathrine Harris's old seat. Jennings seems to be holding that lead over the Republican Buchanan.

The House could flip based on these two races.

Well, that would certainly make the difference, Jim, but I'm not sure why voters would hold Clay Shaw responsible for Foley's indiscretions assuming they were disposed to voting for him in the first place.

You may be right about Harris' old seat.

Whether there's an actual impeachment or not, the sheer amount of and nastiness of investigations will drag business to a halt.

Impeachment without a chance of removal would not be a good idea.

Turns out it wasn't a very good idea for the Republicans, either, but they still did it. Just because you and I think it would be a long-term disaster for the Democrats does not mean that Pelosi and Reid and Kennedy and Conyers think so.

I am coming to the conclusion that how you expect this election to turn out depends, even more than usual, on the community in which you personally are living.

Here (CA-11), for example, we have a district which was gerrymandered for a solid GOP majority. But even some of the local papers which ordinarily endore Republicans, and which endorsed the incumbant in the past several elections, are endorsing the Democrat.

As I drive around the neighborhood, I see McNerney for Congress signs. I see Republicans for McNerney signs. But I don't see ANY Pombo signs. (Lots of signs supporting other Republicans, however.)

In past years, the incumbant sent maybe 2 mailers in the weeks before the election; nothing otherwise. This year I'm getting 2-3 mailers from him every week. And hearing increasingly hysterical commercials on the radio all the time -- as in nearly hourly, every day. If he's not a badly worried man, he certainly simulates one well.

But this district isn't even in most of the Top 20 lists of seats liable to go to the Democrats. So from here, a massive change in the House would appear likely. Obviously many of the rest of you have different experiences at home.

Not saying they will vote against him. Just may suppress the turnout of those who may vote for him. Florida really has no compelling elections or amendments on the ballot this time that would drive turnout on other issues. There is not a lot to really drive GOP turnout right now. That is my idea of collateral damage by turnout suppression.

As far as the Democrats, I don't think the Democrats in Congress will act as a monolithic force. There are enough Democrats whose seats are not safe that will think twice about engaging in the Tomfoolery of the leadership. I would not be surprised to see a caucus mutiney on the Democratic side that ends up keeping Pelosi out of the chair. She will still probably get it; but I think there is not going to be a lot of cohesion of action if the leadership tries to ride along the far left bank.

wj, was the incumbent connected to Abramoff or Ney at all? Under investigation? Do something to particularly tick off the local establishment?

I'll believe an impeachment is in the offing when I find a Democrat, any Democrat, who thinks a President Cheney would be a step forward.

Or can make a convincing case for Cheney having any legal responsibility (as opposed to their views on his moral responsibility, which is legally irrelevant) for anything that they don't like in the past 6 years. So far, haven't found one.

Pat,
Yes, he (Pombo) is connected to Abramoff. But that appears to be, at most, a final nail in the coffin. His corruption net spread far wider than that.

Also, the rising inclination to feel that Christians should be good stewards of the Earth that God gave into man's keeping works against him. As far as I can find, Pombo have voted against any and every bit of environmental legislation that has come along. (Except subsidies for wind farms. But then, his family owns a lot of land with wind farms on it. Coincidence, no doubt.)

The Kosites will declare success...

Aw, c'mon Mathew! That's a straight gimme. They declare success even when they get their asses stomped.

Tully,

As Todd said, .333 is a good batting average.

But it's not baseball....

.333 is 2 to 1 against.

Late last year I was picking a two or three seat GOP loss in the Senate and a 12 seat loss in the House. I wonder how close that will be. Frankly, for all the noise and all the cheerleading, the grouped fundamentals haven't really shifted all that much, even though the seats in contention aren't all the same ones I would've picked in December or January.

Exactly Jim,

If the Dems take over the margin is going to be so narrow it will almost feel as if the Republican hadn't lost. They won't be running things but they'll be constantly swatting down Democratic legislation. In fact, the conferences with the Senate could be impossible simply because Pelosi won't be able to deliver the votes without talking to Boehner. Granted the "Mainstream Partnership" will become friendlier but having won the majority by simply NOT being Republican the Democrat's leverage with these folks will be more open to Republican interpretation than Democratic.

But in this era of twisted mid-terms (1998 and 2002) I still think the possibility of a purchased election is not outside the realm of possibility for the GOP.

But your right, the polls aren't very pretty for them at the moment.

Tully,
Chavez and Kimmie have also declared "victory". Don't you know by now there are no greater demons than those imperial Republicans? Pelosi’s interview on 60 minutes was telling. First, she calls for civility and then she exempts the Democrats from such civility (because they MUST win) claiming "immoral" "running a criminal organization" to be very understated comments. She dodges her more liberal positions by asserting that winning right now is everything regardless of positions Left in the closet. She is proud of her lock stepping.

Pat,
Yes, the Democrats learned little from the wasted time of the Clinton ordeal. No consideration of the more serious position AMERICA is in now. Sudan, Congo, NK, Iran, Afghanistan and even OBL are all at the bottom of the list. Who the hell thinks Democratic power would not bring out the partisan dogs? They will spend two years sensationalizing and weakening their position for 2008. Hillary was a bit refreshing in her NY debate. Great hair cut. Not too shrill.

I think Pelosi is one of the richest representatives. I have to laugh when she claims she will not raise taxes, try to impeach Bush, obstruct any use of force and parade a series of important issues like gay marriage, limiting out-sourcing and ignoring social security and rising medical costs.

I agree with the original projection posted at the top. And then of course, the Democrats will over-reach. Obama actually might seem centrist a year from now. McCain might become born again.

There is still time for global events to play a role before November. Don't we all know that Cheney directs terror from a secret bunker?

Yeah, things will be much better a month from now.

I debated several Palm Beach Democrats over the weekend. They asked me why I was taking so many "Republican" positions if I was a "liberal". I told them I was a Democratic trainer. Weak positions and mindless rejectionism is like fat. Getting in shape is much better than saying fat is beautiful. No pain, no gain. Want to win? Harden the the argument, not the mindset. I think they got the point and I reminded a few that while valid views can be subjective, facts cannot. Accuracy is only valid for teaching evolution?