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July 20, 2006

Lamont surges

Link.

Anti-war Connecticut U.S. Senate candidate Ned Lamont has surged to a razor-thin 51 - 47 percent lead over incumbent Sen. Joseph Lieberman among likely Democratic primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 55 - 40 percent lead for Sen. Lieberman among likely Democratic primary voters in a June 8 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In possible general election matchups:
  • Lieberman defeats Republican challenger Alan Schlesinger 68 - 15 percent;
  • Lamont beats Schlesinger 45 - 22 percent, with 24 percent undecided;
  • Running as an independent, Lieberman gets 51 percent, to 27 percent for Lamont and 9 percent for Schlesinger.
I haven't looked yet, but I imagine that the lefty blogosphere is buzzing this morning.

Posted by Todd Pearson at July 20, 2006 10:05 AM
Comments

Yeah, you're not kidding.

Posted by: Rafique Tucker at July 20, 2006 01:10 PM

I do hope that Leiberman loses the primary. It would show the "hardcore" Dems for what they really are....

Posted by: Dan at July 20, 2006 01:27 PM

Americablog.

If Lamont wins the primary, and Lieberman runs as an independent, it's going to tear the Democratic party and the grassroots apart. . . . [T]here will be open war between the blogs, the netroots and the Democratic party for the next four months.
In other words, "we will destroy the party if necessary to save it."

Posted by: Todd Pearson at July 20, 2006 02:24 PM

At least there are some within the Democratic establishment fighting the war against the nutroots on the left. As a moderate Republican I am continually disgusted with the establishments pandering to folks at Redstate and other like minded groups. I guess, in other words, I would prefer a war over extremism in both parties. I still don't get why Joe Lieberman is their sole target. A war supporter who opposes a deadline and voted for CAFTA and against filibustering Roberts and Scalia, incumbent U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell, is currently enjoying party unity in my own state. The anti-war lefty in her primary recently dropped out of the race and joined her campaign staff after months of insignificant squabbles at the netroots level. Why aren't they going after Cantwell? In more than one instance her record is more Republican than Lieberman's.

Posted by: Mathew at July 20, 2006 02:33 PM

Mathew's post pinpoints Lieberman's problem. Joe's main supporters aren't Democrats; they're moderate Republicans.

Well, and Clinton, of course. But Clinton once described himself as an "Eisenhower Republican" so he counts too.

Posted by: Blue Jean at July 20, 2006 03:18 PM

LOL. Why, Jean, one would almost think you were using "Republican" as a synonym for "not rabid left wing Lieberman-haters."

Lamont has focused his ad buys on anti-Lieberman buzz focused at "likely Democrat primary voters," and it shows in the poll. The poll also shows that among the likely Dem primary voters that the "Lamont" voters are 2-1 in citing "against Lieberman" as their reason instead of "for Lamont." While the same group shows that Lieberman voters are 9-1 voting FOR Lieberman, not against Lamont.

Also of note is that moderate Dems are for Lieberman 2-1, and liberal Dems for Lamont 2-1. This is also reflected in the "deserves to be re-elected" question, where Lieberman gets a 5/3 "Yes" from all Dems. Joe's problem is that the anti-Joe liberals are more likely to show up for the primary.

Posted by: Tully at July 20, 2006 04:29 PM

For all the centrists who are fed up with the wings running the show for the major parties, this would be an excellent time to step up to the plate and go help an honest-to-god thinking moderate fight off a challenge from the wings... Contribute some money to Lieberman. Send some letters to the editor. Speak up against rigid ideology and partisanship being used to establish litmus tests for candidates. We're not going to see a clearer case than this, on the left or the right, for awhile.

Posted by: PatHMV at July 20, 2006 06:08 PM

I still don't get why Joe Lieberman is their sole target.

The general concept is covered here, Mathew. This is quite relevant as well. And this has some tangential bearing.

In the meantime, Joe's letting the dogs out. Political kabuki is a great spectator sport, don't you think? :-)

I'm still giggling at the thought of Clinton as an "Eisenhower Republican"--though I believe he was complaining that he'd been forced to act like one by Congress when he said that.

Posted by: Tully at July 20, 2006 06:45 PM

Of course, the best way to do something about the winger ideologues is to actually get out and vote in the primaries.

As a rcent article in USA Today notes:

"The higher the turnout, the more representative an election is," says Rhodes Cook, publisher of a non-partisan political newsletter. "The lower the turnout, the more the election is likely to reflect a wing of a party or an ideology."

If you want boradly representative candidates instead of wingbots, you have to vote in the primaries.

Posted by: Tully at July 20, 2006 07:07 PM

It's just an accountability moment. Like a stomach ache it will pass.

Posted by: Marcus at July 20, 2006 07:25 PM

LOL. Why, Jean, one would almost think you were using "Republican" as a synonym for "not rabid left wing Lieberman-haters."

But...but...some of my best friends are Republicans! ;-)

Funny you should mention primaries, since news reports say that Republicans are changing their registration to vote for Lieberman. That's their right, of course, but it does kinda feed the impression that the GOP supports Joe more than the Dems do.

For all the centrists who are fed up with the wings running the show for the major parties, this would be an excellent time to step up to the plate and go help an honest-to-god thinking moderate fight off a challenge from the wings... Contribute some money to Lieberman. Send some letters to the editor. Speak up against rigid ideology and partisanship being used to establish litmus tests for candidates. We're not going to see a clearer case than this, on the left or the right, for awhile.

Stirring words, Pat. Tell you what; I’ll be happy to donate to Joe’s campaign if you’ll pay a matching donation to help moderate Republican Senator Lincoln Chaffee save his seat from conservative challenger Laffey, which is the same story, but doen't get nearly as much play as "OMG! W's best friend is being victimized by them evil liberals!" does.

Now, I'm sure Pat, Tully and Simon are already tapping at their keyboards to say "But Joe's not W's best friend!" No, but Joe's home state is more Dem than Rep, and the sixth most anti-W state in America as well. It's no coincedence that Lamont edged ahead for the first time when W cast his first veto of the stem cell bill. If I were Joe. I'd be racing to the Senate floor to denounce that veto. (OK, I'd do that anyway, but for Joe, it's a must.)

I'm still giggling at the thought of Clinton as an "Eisenhower Republican"--though I believe he was complaining that he'd been forced to act like one by Congress when he said that.

Glad I was able to bring a little sunshine into your life, Tully, however inadvertantly. ;-) It's true Clinton was frustrated when he said that, but his governing philosophy was far closer to Ike's than W's is.

And I must admit I mispoke. The Big Dog agreed to support the winner of the Dem primary, not Lieberman himself. My cracked crystal ball still sees Joe as the winner, but...Bill's probably cheering for Lamont.

Posted by: Blue Jean at July 20, 2006 07:43 PM

Whoops! I got it right the first time. Bill will campaign for Lieberman, which shows he's a better man than I am.

Though, since I'm not a man at all, isn't hard. ;-)

Posted by: Blue Jean at July 20, 2006 07:50 PM

You know, the sad part is that the wingnuts in the Democratic party will consider a victory as long as Lieberman does not win as a Democrat. That just shows how idiotic that group is. In winning a battle, they lose the war. I just sit here amazed at how the Democrats have not figured out that the idea is to win the election so they can have a real voice. Maybe I'm not giving the wingers enough credit, though. If the Dems do win, the wingnits would probably be the first group that gets jettisoned.

Posted by: Jim M at July 20, 2006 08:30 PM

Yes, yes, I'm quite aware how much everyone here hates the left, even though the righties are at least as much a threat to the middle as the lefties. Now, does anyone have anything valuable to say about what Lieberman can do to turn this situation around? Or is this going to dissolve into just another bitch session about them evil libruls?

Posted by: Blue Jean at July 20, 2006 09:12 PM

OK. "Kevetch" would be a better word than "bitch." Either way, it's a waste of time.

Posted by: Blue Jean at July 20, 2006 09:14 PM

Blue Jean:

The lefties may have received more attention around here recently, but I think that it is for this reason: The right is in control and moderates are frustrated that the Democratic party don't seem likely to fill the center vacuum anytime soon.

Posted by: Todd Pearson at July 20, 2006 09:27 PM

Jean, I will more than happily match your primary contribution to Joe with a primary contribution to Lincoln. I am on record somewhere in the bowels of Redstate chastizing them for their wanting to unseat Lincoln, for the same basic reason I think Democrats are foolish for trying to unseat Joe.

Actually, the argument is stronger for Republicans to keep Lincoln then for Democrats to keep Joe, because Ned has at least some chance at winning the general election, while Lincoln is probably the only Republican who could win his seat, and his voting record is more conservative than all but about 2 Democrats, and far more conservative than the Democratic Senators from Rhode Island have been (if I'm remembering correctly; it's been awhile, and I don't feel like searching for my old posts).

So how about it, Jean? $50 each to our respective party's outlying moderate?

Posted by: PatHMV at July 20, 2006 11:06 PM

Hell, I want an alternative. I would love to see something come from the Democratic party. I just want something more then the "We are not Bush" party. Almost every postion is a polar opposite. I don't live in a world where everything is black and white. My life is shades of gray. It is not Red or Blue. It seems almost kneejerk and predictable theese days. I almost feel that if President Bsh came out in favor of increasing ping-pong ball production, Nancy Pelozi and Harry Reid would call a press conference with some slogan that says "Bush plays ping-pong with the US economy." I hate the canibalistic and hyperbolic nature of both sides right now.

Posted by: Jim M at July 20, 2006 11:16 PM

So support Lieberman, Jim. He's nobody's "yes man".

Posted by: PatHMV at July 21, 2006 12:05 AM

Please dont contribute to Lincoln Chafee's campaign. He may be a "liberal Republican" but his is one of the worst representatives RI has ever had. His father must be rolling in his grave to see how his son is acting since being APPOINTED to his position. Laffey is much more of a centrist-style pol. Laffey bucked the party, the unions, even the PEOPLE to do what was right and saved his city (Cranston, RI) from the brink of state takeover and bankruptcy. What has dear old Linc done? Well, while he was mayor of Warwick (my town) he raised property taxes twice and started a sewer program which the people really didnt want and then pushed through a plan where each resident would have to pay approximately $8000 for it, oh but we can pay over 20 years, and 18% interest. Or we can pay it all up front. Thanks Linc, maybe you can sell your share of the company which is doing the work now. No bid contract, his company gets the money, over 20k per household. Nice. And his is still very good friends with Ed DiPrete. DiPrete's legacy is that as governor of this crappy little state, he took over $30 million in kickbacks on no-bid contracts....

Also, Chafee got a hold of the list of all registered Democrats in teh state and sent out an email to them asking them to switch to Republican for the primary and keep him in power. Chaffee has not run one single "positive" ad on TV yet, and Laffey has run nothing but positive ads. Laffey, contrary to popular opinion, is NOT endorsed by the party favorites. Chafee is "politics as usual" - Laffey is a breath of fresh air.

Sorry, had to vent on this issue. It just burns my biscuits when people talk about Chafee like he is some kind of centrist when in fact, he is far from it. What he is is a scoundrel, a pure politition who has not lived up to his "promises".

Posted by: Dan at July 21, 2006 12:08 AM

When all's said and done, I really don't expect either Chaffee or Lieberman to lose.

Both of these guys are guys that are well liked by their constituents in general, but disliked by their own party's wingier partisans. If the wingier partisans dominate the primary, maybe they will lose. But my guess is that moderates who don't usually vote in primaries are more likely to bother to vote in those primaries because they are not fans of the challenger.

If you re-do that poll and check the preferences of the slightly less likely to vote in the primaries, I bet you'd find that THOSE voters are solidly in favor of the incumbents. My prediction is that they come out in greater numbers than the pollsters are modeling.

Even though RI is a western neighbor for me, I don't know much about Chaffee outside of the fact that whenever I hear someone complaining about him, it's a Republican. What little I know about Laffey is that he seems like a bit of a looose cannon. As Dan testifies, he does seem to have made the necessary hard decisions to restore solvency to Cranston while in charge there.

Posted by: bk at July 21, 2006 09:13 AM

Matthew: "I still don't get why Joe Lieberman is their sole target."

While there are others with records that one would think would raise the nutroots' ire, they mostly live in red states, which gives them an excuse--that it's what's needed to win the general election. Another potential reason is that while there are other unapologetic Democratic war supporters, they mix their support with criticism of Bush's conduct of the war. Even some diehard Republican supporters of the war, like McCain, engage in criticism of the conduct. However, Lieberman largely stays out of the debate of the conduct of the war.

Todd Pearson: " I haven't looked yet, but I imagine that the lefty blogosphere is buzzing this morning."

What about the righty blogosphere. I imagine some of them must be salivating over the prospect of running an ad featuring Lamont's win against Jim Marshall in Georgia and other Democrats in heavily Republican districts/states. Some of them haven't even waited until this came out to prepare such an ad.

Blue Jean: "Republicans are changing their registration to vote for Lieberman."

Thank goodness Conn. allows voters to do that. In NY, if you change your registration, you have to sit out at least one primary season.

Posted by: Scott Smith at July 21, 2006 09:34 AM

Matthew: "I still don't get why Joe Lieberman is their sole target."

While there are others with records that one would think would raise the nutroots' ire, they mostly live in red states, which gives them an excuse--that it's what's needed to win the general election. Another potential reason is that while there are other unapologetic Democratic war supporters, they mix their support with criticism of Bush's conduct of the war. Even some diehard Republican supporters of the war, like McCain, engage in criticism of the conduct. However, Lieberman largely stays out of the debate of the conduct of the war.

Todd Pearson: " I haven't looked yet, but I imagine that the lefty blogosphere is buzzing this morning."

What about the righty blogosphere. I imagine some of them must be salivating over the prospect of running an ad featuring Lamont's win against Jim Marshall in Georgia and other Democrats in heavily Republican districts/states. Some of them haven't even waited until this came out to prepare such an ad.

Blue Jean: "Republicans are changing their registration to vote for Lieberman."

Thank goodness Conn. allows voters to do that. In NY, if you change your registration, you have to sit out at least one primary season.

Posted by: Scott Smith at July 21, 2006 09:45 AM

Jean, a few niggling points...

There's only one "e" in kvetch. :-D (Hey, I said niggling! How much more niggling can one possibly get than kvetching about the Elnglish-language spelling of kvetch?)

Republicans are changing their registrations to vote for Lieberman

You're not forgetting the Grand Kansas Tradition of registering for the other party so as to vote for their worst primary candidate, are you? Don't assume they're doing it because they like Joe. ;-)

The only out-of-stater I sent any money towards this year (or will) is Kinky Friedman. At least part of that was because I just couldn't resist the talking Kinky Friedman doll--er, I mean "action figure"--that I received for my donation. ("Why the hell not?") Sending money to either Chaffee or Lieberman is Right Out for me--I've got kids to feed. But I'll offer you a challenge. If you'll donate a little time or money to a particular aisle-crossing registration-changing turncoat GOP'er turned centrist Democrat, I will exceed your donation and/or volunteer time for that particular candidate. Namely, this guy. Even though he's a bullet-head party traitor! Suits? :-D

If you re-do that poll and check the preferences of the slightly less likely to vote in the primaries, I bet you'd find that THOSE voters are solidly in favor of the incumbents.

5 to 3 favored "good job" rating by all voters, slight edge among all Dems. 2 to 1 favorable rating all voters, 3 to 2 with Dem voters. If the election were held today, Lieberman would win by 2 to 1 over any other candidate, and by larger margins over the runner-up in any two-man race. If the election were held today with only Democrats voting, he'd still win. It's only when you reduce it to "likely Dem primary voters" that it's tight.

Posted by: Tully at July 21, 2006 11:27 AM
Republicans are changing their registrations to vote for Lieberman

You're not forgetting the Grand Kansas Tradition of registering for the other party so as to vote for their worst primary candidate, are you? Don't assume they're doing it because they like Joe. ;-)

But it's all meaningless anyway. Conn. requires three months advance registration switch in order to vote in a different primary, so unless they switch by May 8, they'll be ineligible for the Democratic primary.

As for voting the the opposite party's worst candidate, the only way that could be a sensible strategy is if the "worst" candidate is the weakest for the general election. Somehow I doubt Joe falls in that category.

My assessment is that it will be a turnout battle. If Lamont supporters turn out 50% more than the rate of Lieberman supporters, he could win the primary. Now excuse me while I bite my nails over that thought.

Posted by: Scott Smith at July 21, 2006 02:41 PM

As for voting the the opposite party's worst candidate, the only way that could be a sensible strategy is if the "worst" candidate is the weakest for the general election.

Absolutely. That's exactly why Kansas Dems do it--the idea being to help vote in a nutball right-winger in the primary that can't beat a Dem moderate in the general. We like moderates, regardless of party. Any Dem loses to a GOP moderate in a state-wide election 'round here, but a Dem moderate can easily beat a frothing fundie right-winger. That's why "red" Kansas and "red" Oklahoma have moderate Dem governors right now, and why moderate Kansas GOP'ers routinely change party when the primary numbers are against them. Sebelius' current and next Lt Govs are both "turncoat" GOP mods, as is the AG candidate I linked above, who changed party to run against the truly excreble right-wing incumbent.

Posted by: Tully at July 21, 2006 02:56 PM

Um... just to keep things interesting I thought I'd point out that Lieberman isn't the only potential Independent in the General Election soup.

Republican state Representative Diana Urban, who took over now Congressman Rob Simmons (R) state district when he moved up the ladder, filed papers to challenge for Lieberman's seat as an Indie. Meanwhile she's also campaigning to retain her state seat... as a Republican.

This was first pointed out to me by an old Indie friend who lives in Connecticut. Interestingly enough he's a huge Pat Buchanan fan and is steadfastly opposed to Lieberman.

Posted by: Kevin at July 22, 2006 02:54 PM

Saw that, Kevin. Pretty interesting stuff. As near as I can tell from having gone over the demographics, she's not liable to be peeling any votes off of Lieberman, only off of Lamont and Schlesinger.

Which begs the question--if Urban is running as an anti-war GOP candidate while also running for her state legislature seat, is she actually being fielded as a stalking-horse ticket-splitter by the Lieberman camp to siphon off some of the Lamont and Schlesinger votes? Or is she just using the heightened controversy to grab some creds and visibility for herself for other reasons?

(Anyone thinking that a GOP state legislator wouldn't possibly do such a thing to help out her Dem US Senator hasn't spent enough time in local politics--which is often both Byzantine and more pork-barrel than partisan.)

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Tully,

Tell me about it. I had a Kansas friend who was a die-hard Green, yet she was a registered Republican. When I asked her why, she said that she wanted to vote in the GOP primary to "weed out the worst of them". Like I said, that's a voter's right, but it does add to the impression that Joe's playing for the other side.

Doesn't mean that Lieberman's the favorite of the GOP.

Oh, really, Tully? There's a Gallup poll that says different.

Pat,

Fifty dollars? Yikes! Hey, I'm just a mild mannered librarian (except out on the streets, where I'm known as the Dark Avenger. ;-) so I'll pledge ten bucks to Joe if you pledge ten bucks to Linc.

Tully,

You're on! Though I'm afraid it's a little late to help our guy. Been busy with funerals, or I'd be more on top of things.

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