A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics
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A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics | |
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July 14, 2006The Weasels Are RunningSo, come to find out, the weasels are running. Here in Boston, we have a head of the turnpike authority trying to elude a Mitt Romney death blow in the wake of Big Dig tunnel collapse. And the Red Sox have a rookie pitcher, John Lester, who I am proposing Sox fans give the nom-de-guerre Johnny Weasel. He lets on all these baserunners, but they seldom score. His numbers so far: 5 IP, 5H, 5BoB, 1 ER For the sabermetricians, he's sporting a 2.45 ERA despite a WHIP of 1.61. That's unheard of. Of course, this may not last. Maybe he's just lucky and doesn't have a special weasel gene. But that's OK, because another weasel is back. Newt Gingrich... with a freshly parsed position on social issues. Running for prez in 2008? Hat tip Simon over at stubborn facts for pointing out this excerpt from a recent Newsweek interview: You haven't talked about a lot of social issues. What role should gay marriage and abortion play? I guess it depends on the measing of the word "fabric," eh Newt? I don't despise Newt Gingrich, but he speaks with forked tongue here. Tell us how you feel Newt. Is it acceptable or not? Many of the socons who might vote for you have only one question...fer or agin? Too bad Gingrich is so unelectable he may not get ANY traction. He's a thoughtful guy at base. Posted by Kranky Kritter at July 14, 2006 01:55 PMComments
Well, the difficulty for Newt is that I think he probably does oppose changing the definition of marriage, and I think you probably can unhypocritically have done the things that he has done while still opposing changing the fundamental basis of marriage. But what you can't do is come out and say that in public when the theocons have made the issue "the sanctity of marriage," instead of the more accurate description of "preserving the traditional definition of marriage." If it was the latter, he'd still have some difficulties ("traditional marriage" might have included infidelity, but it certainly didn't include divorce, and neither will play well with voters even half awake). If Newt's smart, he'll keep his mouth shut about that entire issue. He's made it clear that he's a values voter, the base knows where he stands, he's not really in any position to talk about it, it's not really any of the Federal govenrment's business (still less the President's), so he would best be served by talking about more important topics, IMHO. If he does that, he stands a reasonably good chance of getting my vote. Posted by: Simon at July 14, 2006 02:57 PM"the sanctity of marriage," instead of the more accurate description of "preserving the traditional definition of marriage" Yup, that's a huge distinction. If you're a parseltongue. :-) The problem is that for most people who really care about these issues, sanctity and tradition might as well be the same thing. Views not founded on reason, but on a visceral positive response to a vague constellation of warm fuzzy ideas. Posted by: bk at July 14, 2006 03:14 PMBrian, Actually, ERA and WHIP are soooo 2005 for measuring a pitcher's contribution to his team... Sabermetricians are now using four primary statistics to measure a pitcher's individual contribution: strikeouts per nine innings, walks per nine innings, and home runs per nine innings; the fourth statistic, batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is what hitters do against the pitcher when they don't strike out, and is widely believed to be out of the pitcher's control (though some exceptions have been demonstrated). Admittedly, I seldom use these stats in my own posts because they haven't gained currency with mainstream fans, but they're statistically more valid than ERA (which can let him off the hook for multiple runs that are the fault of his pitching, and also puts a variable with relief pitchers and inherited runners) and WHIP (since most pitchers can't influence what happens to balls put in play all that much, they can't overly influence H/9 rates). With Lester, he's posted 7.96 K per 9 innings (very good), 6.03 BB per 9 innings (very bad), and 0.72 HR per 9 innings (pretty good, especially in the AL). When hitters put the ball in play, they actually bat .307 against him, which is within a standard deviation of the AL average, and it means that he's not getting much help or harm (or good luck or bad luck) from his teammates. One could look at that several ways: either he could lower his walk rate and get some better breaks (in which case he'll be pitching like the old Pedro) or his walk rate will stay high, he'll start getting some bad breaks, and his ERA is going to double overnight. Either way, his high K/9 ratio and the fact that he keeps the ball in the ballpark is keeping him from self-destructing, and though he may very well be a weasel (a 2.45 ERA with those kinds of peripherals is, indeed, unheard of), he doesn't appear to be an altogether lucky weasel. Although this is such a small sample size that any extrapolation is dangerous, Red Sox fans can probably expect more of the same from Lester in the future. Posted by: Bobby at July 14, 2006 03:31 PMThe problem is that for most people who really care about these issues, sanctity and tradition might as well be the same thing. Views not founded on reason, but on a visceral positive response to a vague constellation of warm fuzzy ideas.I think that tradition does tend to erect a rebuttable presumption that grows stronger with the passage of time; even when the traditional solution is less than ideal, it at least has the virtue of being tried and tested, and its unintended consequences have already become apparent. That isn't to say that change shouldn't happen, but that in my view, when you have a law and a proposed change, the latter must bear the burden of proof that it should be adopted, when they seem co-equal, the former prevails. The longer the law has been on the books, the higher the burden of proof required. In any event, this is not an issue that greatly concerns me; I don't think sexuality or homosexual marriage are really the most interesting challenges facing America today, and in any event, I don't think it's an issue for the Federal Government, still less the President. Let the states sort it out among themselves; if California and Massachusetts want to permit it, as long as they're not imposing it on anyone else, let them. If Texas and Wyoming want to ban it, let them do so. I only get concerned about this issue where it starts to bear on subjects that I do think are interesting and important, such as federalism, legal process and the like. Posted by: Simon at July 14, 2006 04:07 PM
Posted by: Simon at July 14, 2006 04:09 PM
Right, his good K numbers make up for his high walks, to some extent. I think the stuff on BA on balls put into play stuff is VERY fascinating, and I basically buy into the idea, which basically theorizes that when the ball is put into play, it's out of the pitchers control. In other words, the outcome of contact is, if not random, "randomish." This rings true to me.Moreover, I've seen some of these numbers that do a great job accounting for a journeyman pitcher's one or two very good seasons. However,the problem with "luck" is that it may not show up in an average. .307 is not always the same as .307, in other words. And that sort of has to be what accounts for the unheard of disparity I mentioned in Lester's performance. Guys are hitting .307 on balls in play, but the hits and outs (especially GIDPs) are coming in an opportune fashion so far. I really enjoy some of the sabermetrics stuff I've read, but when Rob Neyer went behind the espn subsrciber firewall, it sort of dropped off my screen. One of the stats that I really like for starting pitchers, in the absence of trying to parse 4 or 5 different stats that run to 3 decimals places, is quality starts. Say what you want about earned runs (and I'll cheerfully agree) but the better pitchers pile up quality starts, and the lesser ones don't. If I could have only one stat, it would be %quality starts. Because the measuring increment is the start as a whole, not average performance, say per inning or per 9. It tells you hoiw often a guy is giving your team a pretty good chance to win. BTW, Bronson Arroyo led the Red Sox in QS% last season, which is why I was miffed we dumped him. I was far less surprised by his gpoopd first half. He wins because he's usually solid, not because he's lights out. Posted by: bk at July 14, 2006 04:12 PMYeah, most of the criticism against the Quality Start focuses on the lower end of the standard: 6 IP, 3 ER, which would yield a 4.50 ERA if pitched consistently. Like the lower end of the Save (pitching the ninth inning with a three-run lead), where the closer can give up as many as five hits and two runs in his one inning (yielding a 18.00 ERA), the critics focus on this version of the statistic in order to "demonstrate" how meaningless it really is. In fact, the vast majority of Saves occur with less than a three-run lead, and most Quality Starts exceed the 6 IP, 3 ER standard-- those are just the minimums that qualify for that statistic. But anyone can focus on a small segment of the spectrum and extrapolate it into greater importance than it deserves (not to revisit the subject, but I'd say that's what happened on the abortion thread here with respect to late term and partial birth abortions). Of course, when you read Alan Schwartz's The Numbers Game, you come to realize that every statistic is an abstraction that was artificially created to describe something that occurred on the playing field; once seen in that light, it becomes readily apparent that none are completely beyond reproach and none are completely irrelevant (that's why it's the ultimate "free your mind" book, in my opinion). If you like sabermetrically-oriented writing, I'd highly recommend Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game is Wrong, by the Baseball Prospectus team. It's got lots of great reasoning and statistical analysis in it, including "clutch hitting," "When is one run worth more than two?" and "Do players perform better in contract years?" They have a whole chapter in there about how the baseball universe is "curved" (i.e., an early hit in a blow out is less valuable than a late-inning hit in a close game), and more importantly, how to measure that. It's good writing, too. I really enjoyed it. Oh, one last thing: the guy whose peripheral numbers are out of this world is Jon Papelbon: 9.19 K/9, 1.53 BB/9, 0.38 HR/9, although with a .225 BABIP, he's probably getting more luck than he should reasonably expect. Still, if he can throw six innings every fifth day, he should definitely be transitioned into the starting rotation. Posted by: Bobby at July 14, 2006 04:50 PMThanks a ton Bobby. I think I'll check that Schwarz book out. Any input of where to look for more on BABIP? I've only read one article (it was long and good, but still). As I tried to briefly describe, it seemed to suggest that the outcome of contact was either random or randomish, if I'm summarizing correctly. I am curious whether ananylsis shows that some pitchers regularly have better than average BABIPs, which would suggest a sort ofthreshold...in other words that some small handful of impact pitcher are good enough that batters who face them make poorer contact resulting in weaker grounders and pop-ups. Papelbon has ELECTRIC stuff. He's like a young Clemens. Better even, at least in the sense that he already has a nasty splitter while Clemens started out with a good curveball. IMO a curveball is not, on average, as effective a pitch. That's just a subjective impression of mine, but the way i look at it is that bad curveballs have more terrible outcomes than bad splitters.Bad splitters and cutter seem to lead to walks, while bad curveballs get creamed. Guys with really good curveballs are the only ones who regularly seem to be able to use the pitch effectively, while many guys with only half decent splitters or cutters can get away with it. Another dynamic of the curveball is that it seems to be more effective when thrown by lefties, which suggests to me that it's partially an issue of familiarity. Posted by: bk at July 17, 2006 08:27 AMIf you like sabermetrices, "The Hardball Times" on line has good stuff. I like it, but tend to glaze over a bit at the methodological discussions. Like everything else, sabermetrics tend to become a big dogmatic. Still, it's a very useful tool and I'm amazed that the media does so little with it. Why doesn't ESPN have someone on "Baseball Tonight" that can intelligently discuss statistical analysis intead of these bonehead ex-jocks that viscerally oppose statistics because "they know how the game is played." Joe Morgan is the worst; he acts as if statistics are going to come out and bite him. And he comes up with such ridiculous theories. The Braves have a pitcher named Jorge Sosa who was 13-3, 2.65 ERA last year, but whose peripherals were terrible and was clearly lucky. This year, he would be lucky to get me out. I'm a big believer that strikeouts are important for a pitcher because they reduce the effect of luck on balls put in play. If you go to a game in person (more so than on TV), you can see how much luck is involved; balls that are hit like rockets go right at a fielder and balls that are not hit well find holes. As for Newt, I find him interesting, even though I disagree with most of his positions. I really think that deep down he is much more liberal socially than he can allow for political purposes. He says he is a values voter, but I'm wondering if he isn't more of a libertarian than a conservative. That may be wishful thinking, but I find it difficult to envision Newt having much in common with James Dobson. Posted by: Marc at July 17, 2006 11:08 AMConsidering the shape of the Republican field I wouldn't count Newt Gingrich out. Of course, if nominated, I wouldn't count on him being elected. One thing I really DO like about Newt is that he's always so analytical that when asked about the current state of the political system (policy issues aside) he doesn't dissemble like the rest of them, he actually gives you the players and the odds. Even while he's a part of that game. Now we've got Guliani likely running against McCain and BOTH of them as being, if not running as, iconoclasts. Despite the current state of the polls, I think it likely that one or two other, more conservative, candidates will enter, and thrive. If one looks at the 2000 GOP Presidential contest that helped get us to where we are today, we George W. as the most conservative of the viable candidates, largely because of an increadible DEARTH of viable candidates. Only W. and McCain had ever held statewide office, though N.H. Sen. Smith was in it, before he imploded, defected, then prostituted himself for a committee Chairmanship before losing, himself, to, "Son of Sununu." The point being, where there were only TWO possible nominees in the 2000 contest, now there are a plethora of Senators from which to choose (oh boy, I know, but)a couple governors, and a former Speaker of the House. Oh, boy, I know, however, given the absence of the typical VEEP domination of this contest, one these actually has a chance to go onto be President. As I see it, if Sen. George Allen (R-VA), survives his battle for re-election he'll be the strongest challenger to the current two front-runners. If not, there will be a vacuum on the Right which could be filled by someone as weak and incompetent as Sen. Bill Frist, OR someone far more capable like..... yes, Newt Gingrich. When history is done writing his story we may find that the great mismatch was Newt and the Speakership, not Newt and the Presidency. Posted by: Cavalier829 at July 17, 2006 12:33 PMMarc, You're quite right. If you go back to the beginning of Newt's career in the 70's, you find something very interesting about his three, (yes THREE) attempts to be elected to Congress from Georgia. The first time he ran in 1974, he did so as an ENVIRONMENTALIST. Yes, you read me right. And who would be surprised given his alternative career-choice of zoo-keeper. He ran as a Liberal Republican against one of the old BULLS of the Democratic party, a staunch Dixie conservative Democrat who had been there since the Eisnehower administration. Considering the difficulty of the task, he did remarkably well, nearly defeating him depite the Watergate environment Republican had to run in. He ran again in 1976 as a moderate, and came even closer. Then, in '78 the incumbent retired and the Dems nominated a far-lefty state Sen. Virigina Shapard who ran on the ERA. Newt recast himself as one of those trendy Reaganites, and the rest is history. Posted by: Cavalier829 at July 17, 2006 12:45 PMIt's the old George Wallace story. Supposedly, Wallace began his career as a racial moderate (at least moderate for those times in Alabama) but lost to a much more racist candidate. He then vowed never to be out ____ again. (I think you can figure out the word.) When ambition and principle collide in politics, always bet on ambition. Posted by: Marc at July 17, 2006 02:08 PMMarc, As for Newt, I find him interesting, even though I disagree with most of his positions. I really think that deep down he is much more liberal socially than he can allow for political purposes. He says he is a values voter, but I'm wondering if he isn't more of a libertarian than a conservative. That may be wishful thinkingI think you may well be right, but one thing to consider is that one can be pro-life, as is Gingrich, and still be a libertarian. I also think that you can also take offense at the liberal attempt to drive God from the public square while still believing in freedom to worship; the first amendment guarantees freedom of religion not freedom from religion, and just as the Federal government may not establish a religion, nor may it prevent the free exercise of religion (indeed, on the that point, it is precisely a perception that freedom of worship is being denied that I think irks theocons, compared to my more generic Burkean objections). There's a book that was released recently that I'm hoping to pick up shortly written by, IIRC, the editor of Newsweek, that argues that both the left and the right have really gotten the role of religion in the public square dramatically wrong; I saw an interview with him, and it sounded very intriguing. Posted by: Simon at July 17, 2006 02:20 PM One thing I really DO like about Newt is that he's always so analytical that when asked about the current state of the political system (policy issues aside) he doesn't dissemble like the rest of them, he actually gives you the players and the odds. Even while he's a part of that game.Yep. And I think that people like and respond to a candidate who is straight-up and who doesn't talk in that snide, indirect political vernacular. It was a willingness to call a spade a spade that won McCain the affection of a lot of people outside the GOP, not his politics (and not, contra Feingold, a sort of generic iconoclasm). This makes it even more important - as Brian identified above, and as I noted in the post he linked to - that Newt not get sucked into talking about "the sanctity of marriage", because otherwise he forfeits the whole "plain-spoken, tells it like it is" quality that I think appeals to people. I realize that this is going to sound bizarre in light of some of the scandals of the late 1990s, but I realy think that one of the best things that can be said about Newt is that he seems honest - you may not agree with him, but he'll look you in the eye and say "this is what I'm going to do if I get elected", and when he gets elected, you'd better believe that's what he's going to do. I think that's a good quality for a candidate to have. As I see it, if Sen. George Allen (R-VA), survives his battle for re-election he'll be the strongest challenger to the current two front-runners.I continue to be utterly and completely mystified why this total non-entity is repeatedly touted as a potential runner, let alone finisher, let alone winer. For all the aura of "George Allen is the establishment pick," he is an utterly underwhelming presense; I feel like everyone except me knows that this man personally won the superbowl or defeated the VC singlehandedly or something. He just seems like a semi-anonymous mediocre Senator whose only appeal is that he's southern and his dad was famous. Big whoop. Does the GOP really want to nominate John Kerry Mk. II? Posted by: Simon at July 17, 2006 02:29 PM There's a book that was released recently that I'm hoping to pick up shortly written by, IIRC, the editor of Newsweek, that argues that both the left and the right have really gotten the role of religion in the public square dramatically wrong; I saw an interview with him, and it sounded very intriguing.Aha, it's American Gospel, by Jon Meacham. You can catch PBS' interview with him online here. Posted by: Simon at July 17, 2006 03:03 PM Brian, Well, the guy that first advanced the hypothesis was Voros McCracken, and his theory was examined more closely by Keith Woolner, Clay Davenport, and Tim Tippett who noted the following problems: 1. The single year's worth of data that McCracker drew on in his initial study wasn't adequate enough to support his conclusions; Those findings were summarized in Baseball Between the Numbers, in a chapter by Dayn Perry ("When Does a Pitcher Earn an Earned Run?"), which touches on some of the emerging pitching statistics. Baseball Between the Numbers has a full chapter on BABIP ("Why Are Pitchers So Unpredictable?"), written by Keith Woolner and Dayn Perry, and their testing largely confirms McCracken's thesis, although they specifically note that "Pitchers seem to be able to influence whether the ball is hit on the ground or in the air"-- confirming the fifth point above. So the scholarship is still working on it, and they don't have a definitive answer, but it seems like while it's inaccurate to say "pitchers have no effect on balls in play" (as Michael Lewis did in Moneyball), one can safely assert that "most pitchers have little influence over what happens to a ball once it is put into play." Or, as you put it, it is not quite random, but randomish. Marc, Why doesn't ESPN have someone on "Baseball Tonight" that can intelligently discuss statistical analysis intead of these bonehead ex-jocks that viscerally oppose statistics because "they know how the game is played." You know that's a great question. I mean, they have an entire show dedicated to getting behind the numbers on fantasy baseball, why not have one guy with the "conventional experts" to discuss the statistical perspective to what they're saying? It may be that they're afraid to open up the debate to the sabermetricians (kind of like how Michael Jackson refused to do a dance-off with MC Hammer...) Or it may be that they think Middle American doesn't care about what is being said, but cares more about who is saying it-- and that an ex-player or manager thereby is manifestly believed to have greater credibility. Or they might say something like none of the sabermetricians have the standing to be on a show like this-- although they'd have a hard-time rejecting someone like, say, Rob Neyer. Another good guy might have been fired Dodgers GM (and Billy Beane's former Speransky) Paul DePodesta-- like Steve Phillips, he has the front-officer credentials to break in. On the other hand, he really does lack charisma, and he's rather shy with the media, so joining them would be counterintuitive. But that's kind of a moot point now that he has joined the Padres in an advisory capacity. Posted by: Bobby at July 17, 2006 04:02 PMAllen is absolutely underwhelming, it's true, except that where others have obvious weaknesses, Allen does not. Gingrich, McCain, and Giuliani all have had marital infidelity issues AND DIVORCE. On the other hand, the candidates most apt to benefit from pointing this out are candidates too far right to win: Sam Brownback (R-KS) and Gov. Huckabee (R-AR). Either-or, but probably the 1st of these, will likely snag the "long-suffering," vote, but won't be strong enough with the War-vote (goes to McCain or Giuliani) to win the nomination. The consequent split will rebound to the benefit of the, "safest," candidate. I think Allen fits that to a tee. If, as I frequently fantasize, James Webb ends up taking him out this fall (Webb was over 40% in the polls the day after the primary) someone equally dull will likely fill the void: Bill Frist. Again, NOT because he's exceptional, rather because he's, "safe." Now absent Allen, Frist could stand out for his lack of effective leadership skills as Majority Leader of the Senate compared with Newt who, for all his foibles, is the only politician ever to have Bill Clinton on the run, if even only for several months. In any case, because SO MANY of the GOP's leading lights have marital issues and the one most likely to benefit from this isn't even a second-tier candidate, my prediction is that Newt will survive these questions and go toe-to-toe with McCain and Giuliani. I won't predict the nomination just yet, tho. Posted by: Cavalier829 at July 17, 2006 04:04 PMI met Gingrich at a fundraiser back in '92, and was seriously impressed. He has quite a lot of charisma and speaks very well, and very directly. I think he has as much chance of getting the nomination as I do. But it pays to listen to him--he's quite perceptive at reading the base, and the political winds. Posted by: Tully at July 17, 2006 09:18 PMAgain, thanks a ton Boby, I think I'm headed to amazon right now. Why no sabermetrics on ESPN? I think you can make a decent argument that it's similar to asking why centrists don't get much traction in popular politics. Baseball and sports reporting both have ingrained cultures. And when it comes to sports on TV, well now you are talking about the jockocracy. It's about entertainment or infotainment, and familiar faces, and back-slapping jock-ularity. Look no further than the Best Damned Sports Show, which is about as much journalism as Jay Leno or David Letterman, which is to say, it's not. Centrists and baseball fans who find sabermetrics interesting are in the same set of people, those who enjoy analysis and think it can provide insight. IMO, few people who watch sports or even many of those who talk about it for a living are very interested in genuine insight if it's anything like hard work and involves math. Posted by: bk at July 18, 2006 08:59 AMBack when Newt was starting out, there was a Washington joke that went like this; somewhere in DC, there's a huge file cabinet labeled NEWT'S IDEAS. Inside, there's a slim folder labeled "Newt's Good Ideas." Let's just say that Newt running for the White House in '08 probably belongs in the file, not the folder. I think you may well be right, but one thing to consider is that one can be pro-life, as is Gingrich, and still be a libertarian. Uh, not in this reality. You can't say "I'm libertarian, but I'm anti-abortion, anti-death penalty, and anti-war." just like you can't say "I'm pro-democracy, but I think the next President should be chosen because he was the son of the last President." I also think that you can also take offense at the liberal attempt to drive God from the public square while still believing in freedom to worship; the first amendment guarantees freedom of religion not freedom from religion, and just as the Federal government may not establish a religion, nor may it prevent the free exercise of religion (indeed, on the that point, it is precisely a perception that freedom of worship is being denied that I think irks theocons, compared to my more generic Burkean objections). Me, I always believed atheists and agnostics are just as much American citizens as religious folks, and the freedom of religion includes the freedom from religion, just like the right to marry includes the right not to marry. And just how are them ol' evil liberals "driving religion from the public square?" The last time I checked, the theocons were hot and bothered because the "under God" part of the Pledge isn't protected from lawsuits. (Thanks to a Republican House member, BTW, who made sure the bill didn't get out of Committee.) That's hardly the same as a pogrom, folks. Posted by: Blue Jean at July 20, 2006 04:40 PMSo, Jean, you're saying that in order to be Libertarian you have to be Pro-Death? I think a lot of people underestimate Newt Gingrich, and there is no other place you want to be in politics better than underestimated. Beating the expectations is the name of the game. You're kind of all over the place here with the attack. I grant that our system is more and more steared towards inheritance, whether from Father to Son or from Husband to Wife, but really, WHERE DID THAT COME FROM??? The thing about the Left is that they dont' get religion. They don't understand it. Religion is about decency and boundaries and the Left takes pride in just thrashing these. Most Americans aren't card-carrying members of the Religious Right, but as they respect people's right to believe what they want to, they expect to be given the same courtesy. The Left's strategy of using the Courts to impose an undemocratic countercultural agenda, simply drives them further and further into arms of Pat Robertson. Posted by: Cavalier829 at July 21, 2006 11:30 AMWhat I'm saying, Cav, is that you can't ride shotgun on everyone's private lives and be expected to be regarded as a libertarian conservative. Barry Goldwater, "Mr. Conservative", said the same thing. Indeed, he said religion had no place in politics. Freedom of religion doesn't mean the freedom to force your religion on others. I don't know about your faith, but in my Congregationist upbringing, making others pray to your own personal Jesus is considered sinful. (Not to mention bad politics.) Besides. if people are really running to the religious right in droves, than why didn't Ralph Reed win in a landslide in Georgia, instead of merely pulling a measley 44%? Or don't you have an answer for that? Posted by: Blue Jean at July 21, 2006 04:52 PMGreat job http://phentermine-online.cq.bz/ phentermin3 Posted by: phentermin3 at July 23, 2006 09:58 AMJean, Reed got beat because his puritanical image got mauled by his campaign finance antics and a non-entity came in and, by comparison, filled the bill. I think you are right that religion should be left out of politics. The funny thing is the Left doesn't seem to realize the Center is moderately Libertarian, NOT LIBERAL. This is the trick. The middle isn't LIBERALtarian, it's CONSERVAtarian. That is, it believes in live and let live, but holds conservative social views. Mess with their right to live under those views and they'll associate more with the Robertson's of the Right. Leave them alone and you'll never know the difference. 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