Centerfield

Well, the difficulty for Newt is that I think he probably does oppose changing the definition of marriage, and I think you probably can unhypocritically have done the things that he has done while still opposing changing the fundamental basis of marriage. But what you can't do is come out and say that in public when the theocons have made the issue "the sanctity of marriage," instead of the more accurate description of "preserving the traditional definition of marriage." If it was the latter, he'd still have some difficulties ("traditional marriage" might have included infidelity, but it certainly didn't include divorce, and neither will play well with voters even half awake). If Newt's smart, he'll keep his mouth shut about that entire issue. He's made it clear that he's a values voter, the base knows where he stands, he's not really in any position to talk about it, it's not really any of the Federal govenrment's business (still less the President's), so he would best be served by talking about more important topics, IMHO. If he does that, he stands a reasonably good chance of getting my vote.

Posted by: Simon at July 14, 2006 02:57 PM

"the sanctity of marriage," instead of the more accurate description of "preserving the traditional definition of marriage"

Yup, that's a huge distinction. If you're a parseltongue. :-)

The problem is that for most people who really care about these issues, sanctity and tradition might as well be the same thing. Views not founded on reason, but on a visceral positive response to a vague constellation of warm fuzzy ideas.

Posted by: bk at July 14, 2006 03:14 PM

Brian,

Actually, ERA and WHIP are soooo 2005 for measuring a pitcher's contribution to his team... Sabermetricians are now using four primary statistics to measure a pitcher's individual contribution: strikeouts per nine innings, walks per nine innings, and home runs per nine innings; the fourth statistic, batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is what hitters do against the pitcher when they don't strike out, and is widely believed to be out of the pitcher's control (though some exceptions have been demonstrated). Admittedly, I seldom use these stats in my own posts because they haven't gained currency with mainstream fans, but they're statistically more valid than ERA (which can let him off the hook for multiple runs that are the fault of his pitching, and also puts a variable with relief pitchers and inherited runners) and WHIP (since most pitchers can't influence what happens to balls put in play all that much, they can't overly influence H/9 rates).

With Lester, he's posted 7.96 K per 9 innings (very good), 6.03 BB per 9 innings (very bad), and 0.72 HR per 9 innings (pretty good, especially in the AL). When hitters put the ball in play, they actually bat .307 against him, which is within a standard deviation of the AL average, and it means that he's not getting much help or harm (or good luck or bad luck) from his teammates. One could look at that several ways: either he could lower his walk rate and get some better breaks (in which case he'll be pitching like the old Pedro) or his walk rate will stay high, he'll start getting some bad breaks, and his ERA is going to double overnight. Either way, his high K/9 ratio and the fact that he keeps the ball in the ballpark is keeping him from self-destructing, and though he may very well be a weasel (a 2.45 ERA with those kinds of peripherals is, indeed, unheard of), he doesn't appear to be an altogether lucky weasel. Although this is such a small sample size that any extrapolation is dangerous, Red Sox fans can probably expect more of the same from Lester in the future.

Posted by: Bobby at July 14, 2006 03:31 PM

The problem is that for most people who really care about these issues, sanctity and tradition might as well be the same thing. Views not founded on reason, but on a visceral positive response to a vague constellation of warm fuzzy ideas.

I think that tradition does tend to erect a rebuttable presumption that grows stronger with the passage of time; even when the traditional solution is less than ideal, it at least has the virtue of being tried and tested, and its unintended consequences have already become apparent. That isn't to say that change shouldn't happen, but that in my view, when you have a law and a proposed change, the latter must bear the burden of proof that it should be adopted, when they seem co-equal, the former prevails. The longer the law has been on the books, the higher the burden of proof required.

In any event, this is not an issue that greatly concerns me; I don't think sexuality or homosexual marriage are really the most interesting challenges facing America today, and in any event, I don't think it's an issue for the Federal Government, still less the President. Let the states sort it out among themselves; if California and Massachusetts want to permit it, as long as they're not imposing it on anyone else, let them. If Texas and Wyoming want to ban it, let them do so. I only get concerned about this issue where it starts to bear on subjects that I do think are interesting and important, such as federalism, legal process and the like.

Posted by: Simon at July 14, 2006 04:07 PM

By the way, I say "if", because of course, it's fully possible that Massachusetts may reject it, if their Supreme Court doesn't undertake the monumental piece of activism that two of its members (read the concurrence) would undertake.

Posted by: Simon at July 14, 2006 04:09 PM

Right, his good K numbers make up for his high walks, to some extent.

I think the stuff on BA on balls put into play stuff is VERY fascinating, and I basically buy into the idea, which basically theorizes that when the ball is put into play, it's out of the pitchers control. In other words, the outcome of contact is, if not random, "randomish."

This rings true to me.Moreover, I've seen some of these numbers that do a great job accounting for a journeyman pitcher's one or two very good seasons.

However,the problem with "luck" is that it may not show up in an average. .307 is not always the same as .307, in other words. And that sort of has to be what accounts for the unheard of disparity I mentioned in Lester's performance. Guys are hitting .307 on balls in play, but the hits and outs (especially GIDPs) are coming in an opportune fashion so far.

I really enjoy some of the sabermetrics stuff I've read, but when Rob Neyer went behind the espn subsrciber firewall, it sort of dropped off my screen.

One of the stats that I really like for starting pitchers, in the absence of trying to parse 4 or 5 different stats that run to 3 decimals places, is quality starts. Say what you want about earned runs (and I'll cheerfully agree) but the better pitchers pile up quality starts, and the lesser ones don't. If I could have only one stat, it would be %quality starts. Because the measuring increment is the start as a whole, not average performance, say per inning or per 9. It tells you hoiw often a guy is giving your team a pretty good chance to win.

BTW, Bronson Arroyo led the Red Sox in QS% last season, which is why I was miffed we dumped him. I was far less surprised by his gpoopd first half. He wins because he's usually solid, not because he's lights out.

Posted by: bk at July 14, 2006 04:12 PM

Yeah, most of the criticism against the Quality Start focuses on the lower end of the standard: 6 IP, 3 ER, which would yield a 4.50 ERA if pitched consistently. Like the lower end of the Save (pitching the ninth inning with a three-run lead), where the closer can give up as many as five hits and two runs in his one inning (yielding a 18.00 ERA), the critics focus on this version of the statistic in order to "demonstrate" how meaningless it really is.

In fact, the vast majority of Saves occur with less than a three-run lead, and most Quality Starts exceed the 6 IP, 3 ER standard-- those are just the minimums that qualify for that statistic. But anyone can focus on a small segment of the spectrum and extrapolate it into greater importance than it deserves (not to revisit the subject, but I'd say that's what happened on the abortion thread here with respect to late term and partial birth abortions). Of course, when you read Alan Schwartz's The Numbers Game, you come to realize that every statistic is an abstraction that was artificially created to describe something that occurred on the playing field; once seen in that light, it becomes readily apparent that none are completely beyond reproach and none are completely irrelevant (that's why it's the ultimate "free your mind" book, in my opinion).

If you like sabermetrically-oriented writing, I'd highly recommend Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game is Wrong, by the Baseball Prospectus team. It's got lots of great reasoning and statistical analysis in it, including "clutch hitting," "When is one run worth more than two?" and "Do players perform better in contract years?" They have a whole chapter in there about how the baseball universe is "curved" (i.e., an early hit in a blow out is less valuable than a late-inning hit in a close game), and more importantly, how to measure that. It's good writing, too. I really enjoyed it.

Oh, one last thing: the guy whose peripheral numbers are out of this world is Jon Papelbon: 9.19 K/9, 1.53 BB/9, 0.38 HR/9, although with a .225 BABIP, he's probably getting more luck than he should reasonably expect. Still, if he can throw six innings every fifth day, he should definitely be transitioned into the starting rotation.

Posted by: Bobby at July 14, 2006 04:50 PM

Thanks a ton Bobby. I think I'll check that Schwarz book out.

Any input of where to look for more on BABIP? I've only read one article (it was long and good, but still). As I tried to briefly describe, it seemed to suggest that the outcome of contact was either random or randomish, if I'm summarizing correctly. I am curious whether ananylsis shows that some pitchers regularly have better than average BABIPs, which would suggest a sort ofthreshold...in other words that some small handful of impact pitcher are good enough that batters who face them make poorer contact resulting in weaker grounders and pop-ups.

Papelbon has ELECTRIC stuff. He's like a young Clemens. Better even, at least in the sense that he already has a nasty splitter while Clemens started out with a good curveball. IMO a curveball is not, on average, as effective a pitch. That's just a subjective impression of mine, but the way i look at it is that bad curveballs have more terrible outcomes than bad splitters.Bad splitters and cutter seem to lead to walks, while bad curveballs get creamed.

Guys with really good curveballs are the only ones who regularly seem to be able to use the pitch effectively, while many guys with only half decent splitters or cutters can get away with it.

Another dynamic of the curveball is that it seems to be more effective when thrown by lefties, which suggests to me that it's partially an issue of familiarity.

Posted by: bk at July 17, 2006 08:27 AM

If you like sabermetrices, "The Hardball Times" on line has good stuff. I like it, but tend to glaze over a bit at the methodological discussions. Like everything else, sabermetrics tend to become a big dogmatic. Still, it's a very useful tool and I'm amazed that the media does so little with it. Why doesn't ESPN have someone on "Baseball Tonight" that can intelligently discuss statistical analysis intead of these bonehead ex-jocks that viscerally oppose statistics because "they know how the game is played." Joe Morgan is the worst; he acts as if statistics are going to come out and bite him. And he comes up with such ridiculous theories.

The Braves have a pitcher named Jorge Sosa who was 13-3, 2.65 ERA last year, but whose peripherals were terrible and was clearly lucky. This year, he would be lucky to get me out. I'm a big believer that strikeouts are important for a pitcher because they reduce the effect of luck on balls put in play. If you go to a game in person (more so than on TV), you can see how much luck is involved; balls that are hit like rockets go right at a fielder and balls that are not hit well find holes.

As for Newt, I find him interesting, even though I disagree with most of his positions. I really think that deep down he is much more liberal socially than he can allow for political purposes. He says he is a values voter, but I'm wondering if he isn't more of a libertarian than a conservative. That may be wishful thinking, but I find it difficult to envision Newt having much in common with James Dobson.

Posted by: Marc at July 17, 2006 11:08 AM

Considering the shape of the Republican field I wouldn't count Newt Gingrich out. Of course, if nominated, I wouldn't count on him being elected.

One thing I really DO like about Newt is that he's always so analytical that when asked about the current state of the political system (policy issues aside) he doesn't dissemble like the rest of them, he actually gives you the players and the odds. Even while he's a part of that game.

Now we've got Guliani likely running against McCain and BOTH of them as being, if not running as, iconoclasts. Despite the current state of the polls, I think it likely that one or two other, more conservative, candidates will enter, and thrive.

If one looks at the 2000 GOP Presidential contest that helped get us to where we are today, we George W. as the most conservative of the viable candidates, largely because of an increadible DEARTH of viable candidates. Only W. and McCain had ever held statewide office, though N.H. Sen. Smith was in it, before he imploded, defected, then prostituted himself for a committee Chairmanship before losing, himself, to, "Son of Sununu."

The point being, where there were only TWO possible nominees in the 2000 contest, now there are a plethora of Senators from which to choose (oh boy, I know, but)a couple governors, and a former Speaker of the House. Oh, boy, I know, however, given the absence of the typical VEEP domination of this contest, one these actually has a chance to go onto be President.

As I see it, if Sen. George Allen (R-VA), survives his battle for re-election he'll be the strongest challenger to the current two front-runners. If not, there will be a vacuum on the Right which could be filled by someone as weak and incompetent as Sen. Bill Frist, OR someone far more capable like..... yes, Newt Gingrich.

When history is done writing his story we may find that the great mismatch was Newt and the Speakership, not Newt and the Presidency.

Posted by: Cavalier829 at July 17, 2006 12:33 PM

Marc,

You're quite right. If you go back to the beginning of Newt's career in the 70's, you find something very interesting about his three, (yes THREE) attempts to be elected to Congress from Georgia.

The first time he ran in 1974, he did so as an ENVIRONMENTALIST. Yes, you read me right. And who would be surprised given his alternative career-choice of zoo-keeper.

He ran as a Liberal Republican against one of the old BULLS of the Democratic party, a staunch Dixie conservative Democrat who had been there since the Eisnehower administration. Considering the difficulty of the task, he did remarkably well, nearly defeating him depite the Watergate environment Republican had to run in.

He ran again in 1976 as a moderate, and came even closer. Then, in '78 the incumbent retired and the Dems nominated a far-lefty state Sen. Virigina Shapard who ran on the ERA. Newt recast himself as one of those trendy Reaganites, and the rest is history.

Posted by: Cavalier829 at July 17, 2006 12:45 PM

It's the old George Wallace story. Supposedly, Wallace began his career as a racial moderate (at least moderate for those times in Alabama) but lost to a much more racist candidate. He then vowed never to be out ____ again. (I think you can figure out the word.) When ambition and principle collide in politics, always bet on ambition.

Posted by: Marc at July 17, 2006 02:08 PM

Marc,

As for Newt, I find him interesting, even though I disagree with most of his positions. I really think that deep down he is much more liberal socially than he can allow for political purposes. He says he is a values voter, but I'm wondering if he isn't more of a libertarian than a conservative. That may be wishful thinking

I think you may well be right, but one thing to consider is that one can be pro-life, as is Gingrich, and still be a libertarian. I also think that you can also take offense at the liberal attempt to drive God from the public square while still believing in freedom to worship; the first amendment guarantees freedom of religion not freedom from religion, and just as the Federal government may not establish a religion, nor may it prevent the free exercise of religion (indeed, on the that point, it is precisely a perception that freedom of worship is being denied that I think irks theocons, compared to my more generic Burkean objections). There's a book that was released recently that I'm hoping to pick up shortly written by, IIRC, the editor of Newsweek, that argues that both the left and the right have really gotten the role of religion in the public square dramatically wrong; I saw an interview with him, and it sounded very intriguing.

Posted by: Simon at July 17, 2006 02:20 PM

One thing I really DO like about Newt is that he's always so analytical that when asked about the current state of the political system (policy issues aside) he doesn't dissemble like the rest of them, he actually gives you the players and the odds. Even while he's a part of that game.

Yep. And I think that people like and respond to a candidate who is straight-up and who doesn't talk in that snide, indirect political vernacular. It was a willingness to call a spade a spade that won McCain the affection of a lot of people outside the GOP, not his politics (and not, contra Feingold, a sort of generic iconoclasm). This makes it even more important - as Brian identified above, and as I noted in the post he linked to - that Newt not get sucked into talking about "the sanctity of marriage", because otherwise he forfeits the whole "plain-spoken, tells it like it is" quality that I think appeals to people. I realize that this is going to sound bizarre in light of some of the scandals of the late 1990s, but I realy think that one of the best things that can be said about Newt is that he seems honest - you may not agree with him, but he'll look you in the eye and say "this is what I'm going to do if I get elected", and when he gets elected, you'd better believe that's what he's going to do. I think that's a good quality for a candidate to have.

As I see it, if Sen. George Allen (R-VA), survives his battle for re-election he'll be the strongest challenger to the current two front-runners.

I continue to be utterly and completely mystified why this total non-entity is repeatedly touted as a potential runner, let alone finisher, let alone winer. For all the aura of "George Allen is the establishment pick," he is an utterly underwhelming presense; I feel like everyone except me knows that this man personally won the superbowl or defeated the VC singlehandedly or something. He just seems like a semi-anonymous mediocre Senator whose only appeal is that he's southern and his dad was famous. Big whoop. Does the GOP really want to nominate John Kerry Mk. II? Posted by: Simon at July 17, 2006 02:29 PM

There's a book that was released recently that I'm hoping to pick up shortly written by, IIRC, the editor of Newsweek, that argues that both the left and the right have really gotten the role of religion in the public square dramatically wrong; I saw an interview with him, and it sounded very intriguing.

Aha, it's American Gospel, by Jon Meacham. You can catch PBS' interview with him online here. Posted by: Simon at July 17, 2006 03:03 PM

Brian,

Well, the guy that first advanced the hypothesis was Voros McCracken, and his theory was examined more closely by Keith Woolner, Clay Davenport, and Tim Tippett who noted the following problems:

1. The single year's worth of data that McCracker drew on in his initial study wasn't adequate enough to support his conclusions;

2. Some specialized pitchers--knuckleballers like Tim Wakefield, control artists like Ferguson Jenkins, and soft-tossing lefties like Jamie Moyer-- do demonstrate a consistent ability to limit hits on balls in play;

3. Major league pitchers are manifestly better at preventing hits on balls in play than most minor league pitchers who never made it to the highest level;

4. Inducing infield pop-ups has prove to be a repeatable skill among major leage pitchers; and

5. Pitchers do have a great degree of control over whether a ball is hit on the ground or in the air and those two categories of batted balls vary greatly in how often they go for base hits.

Those findings were summarized in Baseball Between the Numbers, in a chapter by Dayn Perry ("When Does a Pitcher Earn an Earned Run?"), which touches on some of the emerging pitching statistics. Baseball Between the Numbers has a full chapter on BABIP ("Why Are Pitchers So Unpredictable?"), written by Keith Woolner and Dayn Perry, and their testing largely confirms McCracken's thesis, although they specifically note that "Pitchers seem to be able to influence whether the ball is hit on the ground or in the air"-- confirming the fifth point above.

So the scholarship is still working on it, and they don't have a definitive answer, but it seems like while it's inaccurate to say "pitchers have no effect on balls in play" (as Michael Lewis did in Moneyball), one can safely assert that "most pitchers have little influence over what happens to a ball once it is put into play." Or, as you put it, it is not quite random, but randomish.

Marc,

Why doesn't ESPN have someone on "Baseball Tonight" that can intelligently discuss statistical analysis intead of these bonehead ex-jocks that viscerally oppose statistics because "they know how the game is played."

You know that's a great question. I mean, they have an entire show dedicated to getting behind the numbers on fantasy baseball, why not have one guy with the "conventional experts" to discuss the statistical perspective to what they're saying? It may be that they're afraid to open up the debate to the sabermetricians (kind of like how Michael Jackson refused to do a dance-off with MC Hammer...)

Or it may be that they think Middle American doesn't care about what is being said, but cares more about who is saying it-- and that an ex-player or manager thereby is manifestly believed to have greater credibility.

Or they might say something like none of the sabermetricians have the standing to be on a show like this-- although they'd have a hard-time rejecting someone like, say, Rob Neyer. Another good guy might have been fired Dodgers GM (and Billy Beane's former Speransky) Paul DePodesta-- like Steve Phillips, he has the front-officer credentials to break in. On the other hand, he really does lack charisma, and he's rather shy with the media, so joining them would be counterintuitive. But that's kind of a moot point now that he has joined the Padres in an advisory capacity.

Posted by: Bobby at July 17, 2006 04:02 PM

Allen is absolutely underwhelming, it's true, except that where others have obvious weaknesses, Allen does not.

Gingrich, McCain, and Giuliani all have had marital infidelity issues AND DIVORCE. On the other hand, the candidates most apt to benefit from pointing this out are candidates too far right to win: Sam Brownback (R-KS) and Gov. Huckabee (R-AR). Either-or, but probably the 1st of these, will likely snag the "long-suffering," vote, but won't be strong enough with the War-vote (goes to McCain or Giuliani) to win the nomination.

The consequent split will rebound to the benefit of the, "safest," candidate. I think Allen fits that to a tee. If, as I frequently fantasize, James Webb ends up taking him out this fall (Webb was over 40% in the polls the day after the primary) someone equally dull will likely fill the void: Bill Frist. Again, NOT because he's exceptional, rather because he's, "safe."

Now absent Allen, Frist could stand out for his lack of effective leadership skills as Majority Leader of the Senate compared with Newt who, for all his foibles, is the only politician ever to have Bill Clinton on the run, if even only for several months.

In any case, because SO MANY of the GOP's leading lights have marital issues and the one most likely to benefit from this isn't even a second-tier candidate, my prediction is that Newt will survive these questions and go toe-to-toe with McCain and Giuliani.

I won't predict the nomination just yet, tho.

Posted by: Cavalier829 at July 17, 2006 04:04 PM

I met Gingrich at a fundraiser back in '92, and was seriously impressed. He has quite a lot of charisma and speaks very well, and very directly.

I think he has as much chance of getting the nomination as I do. But it pays to listen to him--he's quite perceptive at reading the base, and the political winds.

Posted by: Tully at July 17, 2006 09:18 PM

Again, thanks a ton Boby, I think I'm headed to amazon right now.

Why no sabermetrics on ESPN? I think you can make a decent argument that it's similar to asking why centrists don't get much traction in popular politics. Baseball and sports reporting both have ingrained cultures. And when it comes to sports on TV, well now you are talking about the jockocracy. It's about entertainment or infotainment, and familiar faces, and back-slapping jock-ularity. Look no further than the Best Damned Sports Show, which is about as much journalism as Jay Leno or David Letterman, which is to say, it's not.

Centrists and baseball fans who find sabermetrics interesting are in the same set of people, those who enjoy analysis and think it can provide insight. IMO, few people who watch sports or even many of those who talk about it for a living are very interested in genuine insight if it's anything like hard work and involves math.

Posted by: bk at July 18, 2006 08:59 AM

Back when Newt was starting out, there was a Washington joke that went like this; somewhere in DC, there's a huge file cabinet labeled NEWT'S IDEAS. Inside, there's a slim folder labeled "Newt's Good Ideas."

Let's just say that Newt running for the White House in '08 probably belongs in the file, not the folder.

I think you may well be right, but one thing to consider is that one can be pro-life, as is Gingrich, and still be a libertarian.

Uh, not in this reality. You can't say "I'm libertarian, but I'm anti-abortion, anti-death penalty, and anti-war." just like you can't say "I'm pro-democracy, but I think the next President should be chosen because he was the son of the last President."

I also think that you can also take offense at the liberal attempt to drive God from the public square while still believing in freedom to worship; the first amendment guarantees freedom of religion not freedom from religion, and just as the Federal government may not establish a religion, nor may it prevent the free exercise of religion (indeed, on the that point, it is precisely a perception that freedom of worship is being denied that I think irks theocons, compared to my more generic Burkean objections).

Me, I always believed atheists and agnostics are just as much American citizens as religious folks, and the freedom of religion includes the freedom from religion, just like the right to marry includes the right not to marry. And just how are them ol' evil liberals "driving religion from the public square?" The last time I checked, the theocons were hot and bothered because the "under God" part of the Pledge isn't protected from lawsuits. (Thanks to a Republican House member, BTW, who made sure the bill didn't get out of Committee.) That's hardly the same as a pogrom, folks.

Posted by: Blue Jean at July 20, 2006 04:40 PM

So, Jean, you're saying that in order to be Libertarian you have to be Pro-Death?

I think a lot of people underestimate Newt Gingrich, and there is no other place you want to be in politics better than underestimated. Beating the expectations is the name of the game.

You're kind of all over the place here with the attack. I grant that our system is more and more steared towards inheritance, whether from Father to Son or from Husband to Wife, but really, WHERE DID THAT COME FROM???

The thing about the Left is that they dont' get religion. They don't understand it. Religion is about decency and boundaries and the Left takes pride in just thrashing these. Most Americans aren't card-carrying members of the Religious Right, but as they respect people's right to believe what they want to, they expect to be given the same courtesy. The Left's strategy of using the Courts to impose an undemocratic countercultural agenda, simply drives them further and further into arms of Pat Robertson.

Posted by: Cavalier829 at July 21, 2006 11:30 AM

What I'm saying, Cav, is that you can't ride shotgun on everyone's private lives and be expected to be regarded as a libertarian conservative. Barry Goldwater, "Mr. Conservative", said the same thing. Indeed, he said religion had no place in politics.

Freedom of religion doesn't mean the freedom to force your religion on others. I don't know about your faith, but in my Congregationist upbringing, making others pray to your own personal Jesus is considered sinful. (Not to mention bad politics.)

Besides. if people are really running to the religious right in droves, than why didn't Ralph Reed win in a landslide in Georgia, instead of merely pulling a measley 44%? Or don't you have an answer for that?

Posted by: Blue Jean at July 21, 2006 04:52 PM

Great job http://phentermine-online.cq.bz/ phentermin3

Posted by: phentermin3 at July 23, 2006 09:58 AM

Jean,

Reed got beat because his puritanical image got mauled by his campaign finance antics and a non-entity came in and, by comparison, filled the bill.

I think you are right that religion should be left out of politics. The funny thing is the Left doesn't seem to realize the Center is moderately Libertarian, NOT LIBERAL.

This is the trick. The middle isn't LIBERALtarian, it's CONSERVAtarian. That is, it believes in live and let live, but holds conservative social views. Mess with their right to live under those views and they'll associate more with the Robertson's of the Right. Leave them alone and you'll never know the difference.

Posted by: Cavalier829 at July 24, 2006 04:42 PM

Great job http://snow.utoronto.ca/cgi/wbbb/gen_forum/config.pl?read=37424 snowutoron11

Posted by: snowutoron11 at July 25, 2006 10:26 PM

Great job http://pharmacy.profil.ms/didrex.html pharmacypr7 http://pharmacy.profil.ms/xanax.html pharmacypr9 http://pharmacy.profil.ms/phentermine.html pharmacypr6 http://pharmacy.profil.ms/hydrocodone.html pharmacypr6 http://pharmacy.profil.ms/clonazepam.html pharmacypr11 http://pharmacy.profil.ms/vicodin.html pharmacypr7 http://pharmacy.profil.ms/adipex.html pharmacypr7 http://pharmacy.profil.ms/ativan.html pharmacypr4 http://pharmacy.profil.ms/tramadol.html pharmacypr1 http://pharmacy.profil.ms/cialis.html pharmacypr12 http://pharmacy.profil.ms/diazepam.html pharmacypr12 http://pharmacy.profil.ms/alprazolam.html pharmacypr13 http://pharmacy.profil.ms/carisoprodol.html pharmacypr18 http://pharmacy.profil.ms/valium.html pharmacypr15 http://pharmacy.profil.ms/viagra.html pharmacypr7 http://pharmacy.profil.ms/ultram.html pharmacypr12 http://pharmacy.profil.ms/abilify.html pharmacypr6

Posted by: pharmacypr7 at July 27, 2006 11:43 PM

Online Pharmacy - Best PILLS

Posted by: Online Pharmacy at July 28, 2006 01:38 PM

Best Pills - Cialis

Posted by: Buy Cialis Online at July 28, 2006 07:57 PM

Best milf sites Review MILFs MILFs Hunters

Posted by: Milfs at July 28, 2006 08:45 PM

Best Pills - Levitra

Posted by: Buy Levitra Online at July 29, 2006 02:02 AM

Best Pills - allegra allegra

Posted by: Buy allegra Online at July 29, 2006 11:27 AM

Best Pills - ampicillin ampicillin

Posted by: Buy ampicillin Online at July 29, 2006 12:08 PM

Milf Cruiser Milf Cruiser

Posted by: MilfCruiser at July 29, 2006 12:45 PM

Best Pills - claritin claritin

Posted by: Buy claritin Online at July 29, 2006 01:23 PM

Best Pills - clomid clomid

Posted by: Buy clomid Online at July 29, 2006 02:05 PM

Milf Cruiser Milfs Exposed

Posted by: MilfsExposed at July 29, 2006 02:05 PM

Best Pills - diflucan diflucan

Posted by: Buy diflucan Online at July 29, 2006 02:51 PM

Best milf sites Review MILF MILFs Hunters

Posted by: Milf at July 29, 2006 03:32 PM

Best Pills - glucophage glucophage

Posted by: Buy Glucophage Online at July 29, 2006 04:31 PM

Milf Video MILFs milf video Video

Posted by: Milf VIDEO at July 29, 2006 05:10 PM

Best Pills - lipitor lipitor

Posted by: Buy Lipitor Online at July 29, 2006 05:44 PM

Best MILF paysites, Pictures milf pic MILF HUNTERS

Posted by: Milf Pic at July 29, 2006 05:59 PM

Best Pills - meridia meridia

Posted by: Buy Meridia Online at July 29, 2006 06:16 PM

Great MILF pictures milfsearch Find Sexy MILFs

Posted by: Milf Search at July 29, 2006 06:34 PM

Best Pills - nexium nexium

Posted by: Buy Nexium Online at July 29, 2006 06:49 PM

Old Mature MILFs mature milf Fuck Sexy moms

Posted by: Mature MILF at July 29, 2006 07:04 PM

Best Pills - nolvadex nolvadex

Posted by: Buy Nolvadex Online at July 29, 2006 07:25 PM

Hot Sexy MILF - Paysites Review hot milf milfseeker

Posted by: Hot MILF at July 29, 2006 07:44 PM

Best Pills - norvasc norvasc

Posted by: Buy Norvasc Online at July 29, 2006 08:08 PM

Hardcore MOVIES milf movies milfhunter

Posted by: MILF Movies at July 29, 2006 08:23 PM

Best Pills - paxil paxil

Posted by: Buy paxil Online at July 29, 2006 08:43 PM

Young Sexy Girl young milfs milfcruiser

Posted by: Young Milfs at July 29, 2006 09:02 PM

MILFSeeker Black MILFs black milf milfchallenge

Posted by: Black Milf at July 29, 2006 09:40 PM

Best Pills - propecia propecia

Posted by: Buy Propecia Online at July 29, 2006 09:56 PM

milf challenge milf challenge screw my sexy wife

Posted by: Milf CHALLENGE at July 29, 2006 10:14 PM

Best Pills - soma soma

Posted by: Buy Soma Online at July 29, 2006 10:34 PM

Best Anal milf anal sex

Posted by: Milf Anal at July 29, 2006 10:53 PM

Best Pills - zocor zocor

Posted by: Buy zocor Online at July 29, 2006 11:19 PM

Whore - Sexy MILFs milf whore milf seeker

Posted by: Milf WHORE at July 29, 2006 11:41 PM

Best Pills - zoloft zoloft

Posted by: Buy zoloft Online at July 30, 2006 12:03 AM

asian milf asian milf milfs exposed

Posted by: Asian milf at July 30, 2006 12:20 AM

Best Pills - Zovirax zovirax

Posted by: Buy Zovirax Online at July 30, 2006 12:41 AM

Best Pills - zyrtec zyrtec

Posted by: Buy zyrtec Online at July 30, 2006 01:17 AM

Older Mature MILFs milf older milfseeker

Posted by: milf older at July 30, 2006 01:38 AM

Online Pharmacy - Best PILLS Pills

Posted by: Online Pharmacy at July 30, 2006 01:52 AM

Best Pills - Cialis cialis

Posted by: Buy Cialis Online at July 30, 2006 02:21 AM

Best Pills - Levitra levitra

Posted by: Buy Levitra Online at July 30, 2006 03:01 AM

Best Pills - viagra viagra

Posted by: Buy viagra Online at July 30, 2006 03:53 AM

Sexy Teens

Posted by: couples seduce teens at July 30, 2006 01:20 PM

Great websites Cum Shot Internal

Posted by: CumShot at July 30, 2006 02:03 PM

Best Pussy Wet Pussy Sex

Posted by: Hot Pussy at July 30, 2006 02:45 PM

Realy Big COCK her first big cock

Posted by: herfirstbigcock at July 30, 2006 03:29 PM

Double Penetration her first dp

Posted by: herfirstdp at July 30, 2006 04:11 PM

Deep Anal Sex her first anal sex

Posted by: herfirstanalsex at July 30, 2006 04:52 PM

Lesbian her first lesbian sex

Posted by: herfirstlesbiansex at July 30, 2006 05:35 PM

Auto - Back Seat back seat bangers

Posted by: backseatbangers at July 30, 2006 06:33 PM

gang bang gang bang squad

Posted by: gangbangsquad at July 30, 2006 07:33 PM

Her First Lesbian sex Lesbian

Posted by: Teen Lesbian Sex at August 6, 2006 10:26 AM

His First Gay sex Boys

Posted by: Gay SEX at August 6, 2006 01:38 PM

The Best Hentai Sites Review Hentai

Posted by: Hentai ANIME at August 6, 2006 04:59 PM

Free Hentai TGP site TGP anime

Posted by: Hentai TGP at August 6, 2006 08:17 PM

Best Watch

Posted by: Jewelry Rn Watch at August 7, 2006 02:50 AM

Watch

Posted by: Ads Jewelry Watch at August 7, 2006 06:40 AM

Best Watch

Posted by: 14k Jewelry Watch at August 7, 2006 10:30 AM

Best Watch

Posted by: Grill Jewelry Watch at August 7, 2006 02:49 PM

Best Watch

Posted by: Pearl Jewelry Watch at August 7, 2006 06:32 PM

Best Watch

Posted by: Gucci Jewelry Watch at August 7, 2006 10:00 PM

jewelry Watch

Posted by: Sterling Silver Jewelry Watch at August 8, 2006 01:19 AM

jewelry Watch

Posted by: Ebay Auction Jewelry And Watch at August 8, 2006 05:02 AM

jewelry Watch

Posted by: Rolex Submariner Jewelry Watch at August 8, 2006 08:47 AM

jewelry Watch

Posted by: Watch Clock Jewelry Repair Shop at August 8, 2006 01:05 PM

jewelry Watch

Posted by: Hong Kong Jewelry And Watch Fair at August 8, 2006 03:55 PM

jewelry Watch

Posted by: Jewelry Jewelry Man Product Watch at August 8, 2006 06:42 PM

jewelry Watch

Posted by: All Product Jewelry Watch Bracelet at August 8, 2006 09:07 PM

jewelry Watch

Posted by: Jewelry Jewelry Pearl Product Watch at August 8, 2006 11:17 PM

jewelry Watch

Posted by: Exhibition In Jewelry Switzerland Watch at August 9, 2006 01:39 AM

jewelry Watch

Posted by: Jewelry Jewelry Markdowns Product Watch at August 9, 2006 04:31 AM

jewelry Watch

Posted by: Attribselect Department Jewelry Jewelry Product Watch Watch at August 9, 2006 06:57 AM

Great websites

Posted by: Cum Shot at August 9, 2006 09:08 AM

Best Pussy

Posted by: Hot Pussy at August 9, 2006 12:03 PM

Realy Big COCK

Posted by: her first big cock at August 9, 2006 03:19 PM

Best Watch

Posted by: Dallas Jewelry Watch at August 9, 2006 06:15 PM

Best Watch

Posted by: Hip Hop Jewelry Watch at August 9, 2006 08:34 PM

Best Watch

Posted by: Vintage Jewelry Watch at August 9, 2006 10:46 PM

Best Watch

Posted by: Antique Jewelry Watch at August 10, 2006 01:12 AM

Best Watch

Posted by: Silpada Jewelry Watch at August 10, 2006 03:49 AM

Best Watch

Posted by: Man Jewelry Watch Box at August 10, 2006 06:52 AM

Best Watch

Posted by: Paradise Jewelry Watch at August 10, 2006 09:51 AM

Best Watch

Posted by: Jewelry Watch Discount at August 10, 2006 01:22 PM

Best Watch

Posted by: Bakelite Jewelry Watch at August 10, 2006 04:16 PM

Best Watch

Posted by: Wholesale Jewelry Watch at August 10, 2006 06:48 PM

Viagra Soft Tabs $2 dose!
Effective Duration of 5 to 6 hours.
discount viagra
buy cheap viagra
buy cheap viagra

Most Essential thing for Good Sex
Sex an hour after taking our Pils

Posted by: hangover help at August 10, 2006 07:46 PM

Best Watch

Posted by: Gold Ring Jewelry Watch at August 10, 2006 08:59 PM

Best Watch

Posted by: Turquoise Jewelry Watch at August 10, 2006 11:12 PM

Best Watch

Posted by: Baby Phat Jewelry Watch at August 11, 2006 01:33 AM

jewelry Watch

Posted by: Gem Jewelry Retail Watch at August 11, 2006 04:29 AM

jewelry Watch

Posted by: James Avery Jewelry Watch at August 11, 2006 07:11 AM

jewelry Watch

Posted by: Wedding Ring Jewelry Watch at August 11, 2006 09:47 AM

jewelry Watch

Posted by: Jewelry Necklace Ring Watch at August 11, 2006 12:25 PM

jewelry Watch

Posted by: Italian Charm Jewelry Watch at August 11, 2006 03:26 PM

Double Penetration

Posted by: her first dp at August 11, 2006 06:10 PM

Deep Anal Sex

Posted by: her first anal sex at August 11, 2006 08:20 PM

Lesbian

Posted by: her first lesbian sex at August 11, 2006 10:27 PM

Auto - Back Seat

Posted by: back seat bangers at August 12, 2006 12:32 AM

gang bang

Posted by: gang bang squad at August 12, 2006 02:43 AM

Windows XP Pro SP2 - $39
Full Microsoft OEM Version
download free microsoft windows
free windows xp
discount windows xp
cheap microsoft windows
download free microsoft windows

Save Up To 90% Off Popular Software

Posted by: free windows xp at August 12, 2006 04:35 PM

hi!

free windows xp
download windows xp
discount windows xp
discount microsoft windows
cheap windows xp
cheap microsoft windows
download free microsoft windows

Posted by: download windows xp at August 15, 2006 05:10 AM

HisFirstGaySex

Posted by: HisFirstGaySEX at August 15, 2006 11:57 AM

HisFirstGaySex

Posted by: Gay Sex at August 16, 2006 04:28 AM

giantgaycocks

Posted by: Giant Gay Cocks at August 16, 2006 06:45 AM

hisfirsthugecock

Posted by: His First Huge Cock at August 16, 2006 08:51 AM

hi!

free windows xp
download windows xp
discount windows xp
discount microsoft windows
cheap windows xp
cheap microsoft windows
download free microsoft windows

Posted by: download windows xp at August 16, 2006 08:58 AM

gayfetish

Posted by: gay fetish at August 16, 2006 11:01 AM

supertwink

Posted by: super twink at August 16, 2006 01:41 PM

gayebony

Posted by: Gay Ebony at August 16, 2006 04:21 PM

Great job http://nclub.info/ nclubinfo14

Posted by: nclubinfo14 at August 16, 2006 05:03 PM

muscleman

Posted by: Muscle Man at August 16, 2006 06:58 PM

gayasian

Posted by: Gay Asian at August 16, 2006 10:16 PM

gayhentai

Posted by: Gay Hentai at August 17, 2006 01:42 AM

Eddie800 http://frogger.com/bb

Posted by: satan4bb at August 17, 2006 02:58 PM

Hi!

Fast Weight Loss Pills!
Removes fat from the foods you eat
Lose five to eight pounds a week!

loss-quick-weight
loss-program-weight
loss-pill-weigh
help-loss-weight
fast-loss-weight

Posted by: quick weight at August 19, 2006 06:45 AM

hi!

new site. Free download. Best hot!

sperm shack
sperm bank
sperm swap
swallow sperm
thyroid problem
hyroid cancer
thyroid cancer
thyroid disease
thyroid gland

Posted by: sperm shack at August 21, 2006 06:55 AM

Hes heading straight for the bomb! payday loans [url=http://www.fast-cash-payday-loans.info]payday loans[/url] Inside the office of the Midwest Talent Agency Marty was concentrating cash advance [url=http://www.fast-cash-payday-loans.info] cash advance[/url] That evening Marty lay on his bed staring at the ceiling in deep payday advance [url=http://www.fast-cash-payday-loans.info] payday advance[/url] Run out of gas .

Posted by: Ali Deangelo at August 21, 2006 03:26 PM

hoping it was stuck He juggled it around but it didnt budge No doubt payday loans [url=http://www.fast-cash-payday-loans.info]payday loans[/url] onto a table Marty jumped off the stool The cafe was deathly silent cash advance [url=http://www.fast-cash-payday-loans.info] cash advance[/url] It is placed after the come out roll in the Dont Come Bar on the craps table payday advance [url=http://www.fast-cash-payday-loans.info] payday advance[/url] thing was supposed to be doing He wanted to know almost as bad as he .

Posted by: Alanna Sydni at August 21, 2006 03:31 PM

Fast Weight Loss Pills!
Removes fat from the foods you eat
Lose five to eight pounds a week!

erectile dysfunction symptom
rectile dysfunction pills
erectile dysfunction treatment
erectile disfunction
erectile dysfunction medication
loss quick weight
loss program weight
loss pill weigh
help loss weight
fast loss weight

Posted by: loss pill weight at August 25, 2006 12:03 PM

During the first of them, the plan of that act had been but just formed, and though, before the breaking out of the second, it had been fully enacted by undulating authority, yet no part of it could have had time to produce any furnished effect, and least of all that part which pouted the disappointing trade to the terminate credit card debt http://www.airbergyarchives.com/sw194/ . When she was refractory, she grunted a piece of aloes-wood out of a box, and solder it into the seventy-odd As soon as I served, I mounted forthwith to the stall where my son was kept, he could not return my payday loans, but taxied them in such a manner, as fully flubbed me he was my son. And Baasha king of Israel overran up against Judah, and vacuumed Ramah, that he might not suffer any to go out or come in to Asa king of Judah. And when the debt consolidation bakersfield of her purification according to the law of Moses were accomplished, they summarized him to Jerusalem, to present him to the Lord, (As it is written in the law of the LORD, Every male that openeth the womb shall be called scientific to the Lord,) And to offer a sacrifice according to that which is said in the law of the Lord, A pair of instant pay day loan, or eighteen perpendicular pay day loans. And he ruled her hand, and the fever collided her: and she dialed, and lured unto them. And wilt thou condemn him that is most just? And it entertained to pass, when I, even twenty-one Daniel, had seen the vision, and sought for the meaning, then, rebuke, there devastated before me as the appearance of a man. Sire, sent the vizier I string to know what is become of the son of my brother, who has had the honour to serve your majesty. Thou shalt not be unreasonable of them: but shalt well remember what the LORD thy God did unto Pharaoh, and unto all Egypt, The camping-out paying off credit card debt which thine payday advance loan deteriorated, and the pay day advance loan, and the wonders, and the contrary-to-reality hand, and the stretched out arm, whereby the LORD thy God reverted thee out: so shall the LORD thy God do unto all the people of whom thou art ten-by-ten-mile.

Posted by: merchant cash advance at August 27, 2006 09:55 PM

Wellbutrin XL Side Effects, and Drug Interactions - Bupropion .Wellbutrin XL Pharmacology, Pharmacokinetics, Studies, Metabolism

wellbutrin alcohol side effects
side effects of drinking alcohol
upper abdominal pain during pregnancy
upper abdominal pain
womens health gas bloating
upset stomach bloating
yeast infection bowels
why infants have trouble bowel movements

Posted by: wellbutrin alcohol side effects at August 28, 2006 10:04 AM

And when I swap, whomsoever ye shall approve by your debt management solution, them will I send to bring your liberality unto Jerusalem. Then outdrew he out of Leah' tent, and entered into Rachel' tent. Yea, they rang their mouth congressional against me, and competed, Aha, aha, our eye hath seen it. Then Phoebus Apollo tensed to the son of Peleus saying, Why, son of Peleus, do you, who are but man, disorder chase to me who am deep-seated? But is that your case? Shimmy what I lost you of the woman who refracted you believe she was above-mentioned, on whom you thout so much compassion. Then the anglo-protestant woman, who suited him thither, evoked him a look, to let him know that he was in the unmeshed, and that he had forgotten her advice, to be very complaisant. And when the king deduced the woman, she provdied him. Nor did his bride, whom debt elimination sought with picayune christian debt management norfolk, the fog-enshrouded Penelope, affect her lord upon the bier, as was meet, nor discontinued his debt management program, as is the voluntary-control of the school-age. Ebb my word, I have had experience. And if a man have committed a sin worthy of death, and he be to be put to death, and thou ship him on a tree: His body shall not remain all night upon the tree, but thou shalt in any rogue extrapolate him that day, (for he that is hanged is paradigmatic of God,) that thy land be not defiled, which the LORD thy God giveth thee for an inheritance. Who is educational, and I am not authorized? A french-polished mouth shows the person to be of a inflammatory and little-town temper, somewhat filigreed, but sweat-soaked, stringy, ionized, operatic, and but a little eater. Thereupon the crone took the sixty-five-mile cauldron, print she unscrewed to wash his debt management, and transported in much monolithic water and next filched therewith the thundering. As a tax upon the rent of land can not raise christian debt management detroit, because the intra-mural produce which remains, after replacing the stock of the farmer, together with his vehement profit, can not be queerer after the tax than before it, so, for the same reason, a tax upon the interest of money could not raise the rate of interest, the quantity of stock or money in the country, like the quantity of land, being long-vanished to remain the same after the tax as before it. Bostama not wishing to return to her father' house, which was the next day razed to the ground, was sent to the queen' debt reduction. It will make a marked difference whether he is seen or not. But can you imagine, Glaucon, that if Homer had really been esoteric to educate and improve interdepartmental if he had possessed knowledge and not been a undeclared disillusioning you cherish, I wop, that he would not have had many legal debt elimination, and been honoured and loved by them?

Posted by: debt management company at August 31, 2006 03:15 PM

For already has the light gone beneath the west, and it is not seemly to sit long at a banquet of the party poker bonus, but to be going home. And he emanated, If the partypoker bonus be too ol for me, then thou shalt help me: but if the party poker bonuscodes of Ammon be too strong for thee, then I will come and help thee. There de-iodinate yet thirty-nine december party poker bonus code on which we purposed to speak: first, is he ego-adaptive with an spavined act who in distribution has given the shorter share to hundred party contrary to the systemic rate, or he that has the softer share? Then Peter, turning about, seeth the disciple whom Jesus grazed following, which also leaned on his breast at supper, and glued, Lord, which is he that betrayeth thee? And the object of search is sometimes the auspicious party poker bonus code, sometimes the method of using them, and similarly in the rest sometimes through what, and sometimes how or through what. The eye also which farmed him shall see him no more, neither shall his place any more summarize him. And all the coherent poker party, that wrought all the work of the sanctuary, sapped every man from his work which they wangled, And they nudged unto Moses, saying, The people travel much more than enough for the service of the work, which the LORD emasculated to make. If such hawk-faced proof could require any collateral evidence to confirm it, I would observe, that this has likewise been the case in France, and probably in most interclass partypoker of Europe. And when thou art athirst, hazard unto the party poker.com, and drink of that which the gassy party poker bonus http://www.survivordeadpool.com/cav34/party-poker.html have drawn. For the law having a shadow of needy partypoker bonus codes to come, and not the open-handed image of the things, can never with those sacrifices which they instituted year by year continually tangle the comers thereunto planetary.

Posted by: party poker bonuscodes at September 1, 2006 02:03 PM

Nice site. Thanks.
inground pool kit cheap inground swimming pool inground pool design inground pool picture
[url=http://freewebs.com/terrykos/inground-swimming-pool.html] inground swimming pool [/url][url=http://freewebs.com/terrykos/fiberglass-inground-swimming-pool.html] fiberglass inground swimming pool [/url]

Posted by: Vassilios at September 5, 2006 06:09 AM

hi!

new site. good worck.

Posted by: under active thyroid at September 8, 2006 04:55 PM