Centerfield

I find his idea that Bashar Assad is the major culprit pretty persuasive,

This stinks of Iran. Just a few days ago I read that their Pres recently said that "Everything is in place" for the removal of Israel. I think right now they're trying to draw them out and soften up their military.

Oh, and prepare for $5 a gallon gas.

The big question is 1) How far is Iran willing to take this, and 2) Are we going to get involved. The people who say our military is overextended do not understand reality. That idea has some merit if you are discussing another war in a different geographical area, like NK, but our logistics are already in place for the Middle East.

Elected government or not, if Lebanon lets an armed force use its territory to attack a sovereign nation, then it's a legitimate target, even if some other nation is pulling the strings.

I would point out that the Lebanese blogger Jon linked to is hardly condemning of the Isreali attacks, though he clearly worries about being hit as an innocent bystander:

What are the Syrians and Hezbollah thinking? Goad Israel into an attack? Prove that there isn't much that Israel can do without going into all out offensive war? Get Israel back for Israeli overflights and the 2003 bombing of the Damascus Palestinian refugee camp?

They definitely aren't winning any support in Lebanon, the West, or the rest of the world.

And why does he think this is happening?

The interesting part is that Syria is powerful enough to call Israel's bluff. Assad's realized that, not only is the West incapable of taking out the Syrian regime, but that Israel can't either. That truly changes things.

Syria's alliance with Iran is really paying off.

elected Government or not, Lebanon does not control a good portion of its own territory. Israel is going to either win this fight and destroy governments and terror clubs, or WW3 is about to start

That's actually quite an interesting Lebanese blog you linked to, Jon. A lot of good stuff in it. I've got more coverage of it here at Stubborn Facts.

The people who say our military is overextended do not understand reality. That idea has some merit if you are discussing another war in a different geographical area, like NK, but our logistics are already in place for the Middle East.

Well, OVER-extended is a judgement call. Extended OTOH is just a truism,,,100k+ troops in a war footing on foreign soil. Extended.

Establishing troops in another war footing would represent a further extension, wouldn't it? Seems to me that especially under current circumstances we'd have preferred that no new fires be started. It also seems to me that middle easterners opposed to the west can gain some advantage over us by making us fight the "war on terror" on multiple fronts.

If we're going to discuss "over-extended," maybe someone could supply information on how many combat troops (not just raw counts of bodies in uniform) the Army and Marines have vs. the numbers already deployed in Iraq _and_ Afghanistan. And if the numbers aren't over 50% deployed, perhaps someone has an idea why the Reserves are getting called up for tours there?

Sure, some of those non-combat folks are running the critical logistics in the Middle East. But if we are going to do anything effective, it seems pretty certain that more boots on the ground, with rifles in hand, are going to be required. Where will they come from?

WJ,

I think that depends on exactly what you want them to do. Occupying territory requires lots of infantry (and logistics and supply). Just going in and blowing the crap out of something (like suspected Nuclear Production facilities or Government Office or Army Formations) even when it's done with ground troops doesn't require the same level of commitment.

I remember Bobby mentioning something about that in a thread a few months ago. Anyway, he's an expert.... the rest of us are just armchair spectators. Maybe some-one can coax him to answer your question.

alot... a very significant percentage... of the Guard which has been called up is MP units and Engineering units. the 5 units called up in my area (RI) were 4 MP units and 1 Engineering unit.

Dan makes a valid point about Lebanon not controlling a good portion of it's own territory.

I would have thought that the idea of group punishment for the actions of a minority of the group would have been a non-starter, particularly for someone who seems to recognize that re-declaring war on every citizen of Iraq because of the terrorism practiced by a clear minority of it's citizens isn't reasonable or rational. Why is Lebanon different?

I agree with the suggestions that Hezbollah's primary support comes from somewhere to the east of Syria. That much has been pretty self-evident for many years now.

PM Olmert's attempt to justify his suggestion of a formal act of war by Lebanon on the basis of a single Hezbollah minister in it's government is pretty ironic. It's not at all unlike past suggestions by some Palestinians trying to link isolated crimes by extreme Zionists to all of Israel just because political realities in Israeli politics have necessitated including some of the more extreme zionist political parties just to be able to create a ruling coalition that can take power after an election.

Lastly, I would hardly characterize Israel's actions thus far as "restricting itself to hurting Hezbollah" as Jon suggests in the post. While I suppose that bombing the international airport (well outside the territory controlled by Hezbollah, incidently) or blockading the entire coast could be construed as hurting Hezbollah, it clearly hurts everyone in the country... including Israel's sometimes allies in the country.

If we're going to discuss "over-extended," maybe someone could supply information on how many combat troops (not just raw counts of bodies in uniform) the Army and Marines have vs. the numbers already deployed in Iraq _and_ Afghanistan.

The only major Guard/Reserve unit in Iraq is the 1/34 Minnesota, the Red Bulls. A lot of (much) smaller specialty reserve units are over there, but the latest deployment schedule called for bringing home all the Guard but the 1/34, which deployed this spring. I have no idea how the Pentagon makes decisions on calling up individual members of the Ready Reserves, or how many are currently on active-duty.

We currently have over 1.4 million active-duty personnel and about 860K in the Reserve components, including the National Guard. The Army itself has 485K active-duty, 325K National Guard, and 245K Reserves. If I recall correctly from what Bobby said, the Army has a total of 44 Brigade Combat Teams, of which 14 are currently deployed. 10 in Iraq, 2 in Afghanistan, 1 in Korea, and 1 in Kosovo, plus some bits and pieces in other places. I recall he also noted that there's these guys called the U.S. Marines, who are rumored to possess some minor expeditionary capabilities of their own....

So we have 12 BCT's already in the nations on Iran's western and eastern borders. We also have maybe 8 or 9 BCT's that could deploy in very short order if required, without ramping up the Reserves and Guard again. Plus the Marines, and of course that Navy and Air Force support. Extended, yes--into the region. Over-extended? Nope.

Doesn't mean we want to be stacking up forces for an Iranian invasion. But no, we're not out of available deployable units, and the bulk of those deployed are already in the general area.

An additional thought, as to why we call up reserves and guard when we apparently have enough troops to do it without them.

When you're in the game for the long haul, it is difficult for the coaches to resist giving ALL the players some "seasoning" play. Not just the starters, but everyone. And from a training standpoint, they're right.

In addition, there's no point in having reserves who are unwilling to actually be deployed, who think the Guard is just a way to get some tuition money or something. Deployments reinforce the message that they are joining the actual military, not a convenient country club with neat weaponry.

Tully, thanks for the info.
(Although it does make me even more irritated that we haven't put enough people in to actually get the job done. Especially in Afghanistan, which seems to be even worse under-manned than operations in Iraq.)

Kevin,

A soveriegn nation bears some responsibility for what occurs in it's own territory don't you think? I would think this is especialy true when that territory is being used as a staging ground for millitary raids and rocket attacks against the territory of another sovereign nation.

Lebanon, may not have known about, condoned or supported those attacks but it also hasn't done alot to try to stop them either. Lebanon has specificaly and repeatedly refused Israels request to station Lebanese army units on the Israeli border in an effort to curb Hezbollah incursions... saying that it is "not responsible for the security of Israels border". Lebanon can't have it both ways....if it's not willing to try to curb Hezbollah attacks it can't very well avoid the consequences of them.

Now it maybe that Lebanon is simply not capable of exerting control in those areas. I know there has been real concern about civil war in Lebanon and the government is not exactly on solid ground. But the bottom line is that as long as it continues to claim that as it's soveriegn territory it bears responsibilty for controlling what goes on there.... if it can't do that, then some-one else is gonna step in and do it for them. That's all there is to it.

I'm sure that Israel would be more then happy to assist the Government of Lebanon to get control over the border region and disarm the Hezbollah militias there.... if the Government of Lebanon showed any real inclination to do so.

Thank you Tully, I have been asking that question for some time. Before we discuss options in Iran, Syria and Iraq, we must know the resources available. WW3 will certainly require a draft. Nasty situations left unattended end up MAJOR crises. Bobby mentioned some time back that we do have enough troops in the Middle East region to 1. Strike Iran (including an expeditionary force to blow up their wmd sites) 2. Mass some weight on the Iranian and Syrian border to send a signal and distract their troop deployments 3. Provide protection for Gulf and other moderate Muslim allies as conflict emerges (or hopefully doesn’t). Of course, these actions do not mean US occupation. I do not understand the basis of being overstretched that everyone including media keeps suggesting.

The reality is clear, isn't it? America has been about the only nation keeping a lid on the obvious intentions of the West's adversaries. It is no surprise to see attacks from Africa to Asia taking place within days of each other. Who really thinks allowing Syria, Iran, North Korea, Pakistani terror groups with the help of Chavez, Russia and China to continue their preparations and deterrence will achieve any positive goals? I still don't understand why more troops placed in strike position in Iraq can not be used to send a clearer signal to Iran and Syria. Why do they think we have a broken force? The liberal Press? Is this present “stretched” perception a result of media, tactics used or something else?

Moderate Arabs, India, Israel, England and America all seem on the same page regarding Syria, terrorist groups and Iran. Perhaps this administration needs our "allies" to get squeezed more and request our help before taking on our adversaries alone.

No one should misunderstand the enemy. They see our retreat and hesitation as weakness. How anyone can suggest we allow our obvious enemies the time to arm and deploy is absurd. Events around the world have already strengthened Bush's position in the polls. Iraq is about the Status Quo of terrorism and deadlocked diplomacy. Israel cannot allow her enemies to use peace offerings as a time to arm and attack. China may have sidetracked the Iranian question at the G8, but Israel has brought back Iran to center stage. This is about regimes that support terrorism, period. This situation will build into November when Americans will decide if they want Democrats to guide our defense and pre-emption, or someone like McCain. Let's hear from Kerry and Dean. I bet Clinton enjoys Bush going up in the polls. I really hope Bill has something to tell Democrats, or, left to themselves, the Kossacks may even loose seats in the next election.

Entering the next election cycle, America has much to consider. Do I trust the Democratic nominee to defend our allies, including Israel?

I worry that America doesn't really comprehend the full impact of a major war in the region. I was musing some scenarios earlier today and believe that, when (not if) the next Arab-Israeli war comes, it could well be the deadliest conflict since World War II, particularly if Iran is able to achieve nuclear capability by that time. And if you thought $76 a barrel today is high for oil ...

It's not "group punishment", Kevin, it's war. Self-defense. If the terrorists bent on doing evil enthusiastically hide themselves in civilian areas, then sometimes there is no other option other than to take them out there, putting the innocent civilians at risk. Of course, the smart and truly innocent civilians realize this and leave as soon as they can when the terrorists set up shop in the apartment next door with their anti-aircraft missles and mortars.

Imagine a man with a high-powered rifle is shooting at the car where you and your children are trapped. The man is surrounded by schoolchildren he holds hostage. Do you fire back at him or not?

Hezbollah has political power in Lebanon and is a legal component of the goverment. If the U.S. Secretary of the Interior took the Federal Park Police and suddenly invaded Mexico, killing 10 Mexican soldiers and kidnapping 2 others, wouldn't the U.S. government be responsible at least a little bit? Wouldn't Mexico have a very legitimate grievance with the U.S. if we didn't immediately arrest everybody involved and unceremoniously throw them and all their sympathizers out of the government?

Max, so far the Democrats have been quiet, as far as I can tell. This seems like a make or break moment. If they come out in strong support of Isreal and agaist Hamas and Hezbollah they could reduce the "soft on terror" image.

A united America has the ability to comand the respect of the world. If we were united we could end the problems in the Middle East with a serious display of military power. We could make it clear that Terrorist states will pay dearly.

The Democrats showing support for decisive military action would eliminate their image as weak. They could abandon Michael Moore and frame their oposition as limited to Iraq.

Bernie, you are so right. First, the Democrats must look at the end game and support the centrist consensus. If they miss this mark now, as they did after the Madrid bombings, they will not regain power.

The world too, must consider the effects of unity. Only in this basic unity can the US send the world a clear signal. Moreover, the West must unite as well. India, England, Japan, Germany, Israel, Jordan, Italy, France, Norway, Canada, Australia must consider their needed contribution. America cannot prevent calamity alone. We all know what the great rogue hegemony is. We see the nexus of terrorism, radicalism, criminality and wmd. We see Russia and China supporting our adversaries. A decade of deadlock and denial will squander the Liberal Victory and damage our liberty and security for several decades more. United, Europe, India, Japan and others can oppose Russian duplicity, embargo and sanction criminal government and individually contribute to the military defense of the Free World against tyranny and terrorism. What other threat is there?

Democrats should see the Middle East power play. They should see Africa and Asia threatened by this growing hegemony. If Dems go anti-war-at-all-cost, I do not believe Americans will give them the Presidency, let alone the Senate and House. The polls seem to be agreeing now. Lieberman might be the bell weather signal. Or events may precipitate an earlier answer.

It is sad the Democrats have been silent over North Korea, Iran, Syria, Belarus, Putin, China etc. It just shows a nearly complete lack of concern for the strategic situation America and Liberal Democracy is in. I don't think the Japanese think this situation is funny, not does India or Israel.

Pat, try your analogy somewhere else and tell me if it still seems reasonable to you. I believe Sinn Fein has spent time power-sharing the government of Northern Ireland. Suppose a faction of the IRA... I dunno... set off a bomb in London. Would a reasonable response by the British government be to bomb the international airport and blockade the entire coast of NI? Or maybe they should ought to start talking about bombing Ireland itself since the IRA clearly has at least some support among the sovereign Irish population if not some of those in power there?

I'm sorry, but I see racial bigotry in how Americans react to similar situations in different parts of the world.

Absolutely, Israel has a right to protect herself! And I don't have any problem whatsoever with a commensurate response by the IDF. But, everyone knows that Hezbollah's territory is in the south of the country, not in the middle and certainly not in the north. Bombing the Tripoli airport and blockading the northern coast is NOT a commensurate response. It's a belligerent act of war in and of itself.

The fact of the matter is that Lebanon remains a highly fractured society. That Hezbollah not only remains the sole armed non-governmental faction from the civil war days but also has a representative in the government underscores that reality to anyone who cares to deal with the objective facts. Those who just want to see ragheads Muslims get toasted will ignore inconvenient things like context or reality.

Whatever happened to all that praise and admiration for the Cedar Revolution? Some of those civilians killed today by Israel were among those same people that were lauded just a few short months ago for bravely standing up to Syrian forces. Most of those same revolutionaries are being collectively punished by Israel (and with your tacit approval) with the airport bombings and other actions despite the fact that they are not in a position to both maintain peace within their country AND jump thru the demanded hoops that Israel has placed before them. Sure, the average Lebanese man on the street could grab a gun, head south and try to intervene with Hezbollah. Odds are that the civil war would be back on too if more than a very few tried to do that.

Tangentially... how many here already knew that Lebanon is Israel's only neighbor who has steadfastly refused to join in even a single one of the various Arab/Israeli wars?

How do you know that those who died had anything to do with the Cedar Revolution? I must have missed that report. Whether Hamas was elected or that Hezbollah is part of the Lebanese government is even more reason to hold elected "government" responsible. Obviously, Hezbollah operates with Iranian and Syrian help but with the acknowledgment of government. Is the general army able to unite Lebanon or prevent Hezbollah from firing missiles? Perhaps lessons we may learn about Iraq.

I don't see anyone here who want to see "ragheads get toasted". Perhaps you have the wrong place. I am concerned about a very possible reality less than a decade away, where very bad people with very bad technology helped by parties wishing to hurt the West and America in particular to advance their hegemony, are far stronger and united than today. Iran can easily supply longer range missiles to Hezbollah. As predicted, Hamas refused to recognize Israel. They stockpiled missiles and began attacks on Israel having fought Abbas over total control of Gaza. Their best friends includes Iran, Syria, Belarus, North Korea, Chavez, and even representatives from AQ. So why is Israeli retaliation a surprise?

Had Iraq been stabilized faster (the reason the mistakes were so serious) we would have far more troops ready to face another situation. We would not be regarded as bogged down as opposed to victorious through phase IV. A Constitutional oil rebate for every Iraqi household, more foreign investment, retaining a core of the former Iraq army etc might have helped and allowed our troops to now position outward towards our dear two friends Iran and Syria. We would now have more influence and respect from out Arab allies. This is arm chairing to a great degree but the point is that despite these reflections on likely mistakes, our general strategy has not been that far from the mark. The cost of dragging Iraq out weakens the theory and now threatens to derail a strategic gambit to contain extremism and wmd. None of this however, invalidates the dangers of Saddam or the radical Status Quo in the Middle East nor the US policy to prevent at almost all costs the worst from happening.

Kevin, Lebanon hardly was prepared to fight Israel. A government that includes terrorists however, has little argument in denying accountability for those terrorist's actions. Pat has already said it well.

The reason I brought up Syria in an Israeli context rather than Iran was, well, the map:

http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&ll=36.879621,45.351563&spn=25.315644,27.333984&om=1

But, also, although both Iran and Syria heavily support Hezbollah, more of the links of control that we see seem to go through Syria. And, of course,
Syria is next to Lebanon.

Kevin,

The IRA and the ETA rebels in Spain are very different from Hezbollah and AlQueda - for one: The IRA and ETA are PART of the populations they are attacking, Hamas, Hezbollah and Al Queda most certainly are not.

Two: The IRA has never attacked outside of the British Isles and ETA has never attacked outside of Spain. Al Queda has attacked all over the world and Hez and Hamas have also colluded with terrorists in hijacking planes and such to and from other countries other than their own.

Three: The horrors that al Queda and Hez have committed have actually caused the IRA and ETA to both suspend operations or disarm. When terrorists think you are bad, you are BAD.

BUT: I do concede some of your point with the IRA due to the heavy support or sympathy it and Sinn Fein have had in the US. I, as a 3rd generation Irish immigrant, have always been sympathetic with the cause, but not the tactics.
AND: Yes, the British government DID attack the entire country of Northern Ireland. The most certainly DID punish the whole (Catholics) for the crimes of a few. And they also sponsored the Ulster Brigades to fight terror with terror. We all see how that worked out. Ulster is now more dangerous than the IRA.

That Hezbollah not only remains the sole armed non-governmental faction from the civil war days but also has a representative in the government underscores that reality to anyone who cares to deal with the objective facts.

Um, the Hezbollah factions hold 23 of the 128 seats in the Lebanese National Assembly. I believe the NA speakership is one of them.

If this is a hundred year's war, does that mean we've got 42 more years of it coming?

A hundred years is way off anyway, isn't it. When it comes to the middle east and hostility towards the jews, isn't this just the latest 100-year chapter?

Call Israel aggressive and even bellicose if you want. But then make me a list of the number of ME nations who grant that Israel has any right to exist.

Tully and WJ,

Just to add to what Tully noted about the heavy deployment of the Guard/Reserves over the last two(+) years, it was actually a deliberate strategy that Army planners used to buy the time needed to Transform the active duty Army away from the massive Division-centric formations and into the modular, self-contained Brigade-based Units of Actions (which we're now calling Brigade Combat Teams).

Transformation is very manpower and time-intensive for the units that are going through the process; thus, the active duty needed about two years of "augmentees" to take over some of the Iraq fight so that the active duty could be restructured. Having largely completed this process, we now have a pool of over forty active-duty Brigade Combat Teams from which we can deploy, and so we're seeing the Guard combat formations assume fewer and fewer coverage of the mission. The combat support and service support missions are a little bit different, mind you, and the Army will probably be relying on the Guard and Reserves to accomplish some of those missions for the forseeable future.

For those who are interested, there's 111,768 reservists who are currently mobilized. This figure includes the Army Reserve and National Guard, Navy Reserve, Air National Guard and Reserve, Marine Corps Reserve, and Coast Guard Reserve. About one-quarter to one-third of those numbers are replacing one another (i.e., one Reserve unit taking over for another Reserve unit, and so both are currently mobilized), and probably half serve in a Homeland Security mission of some kind (including Operation Noble Eagle and supporting the border patrol). Overseas deployments include Kosovo, the Sinai, and the training of the Afghan National Army (which are Reserve-led), as well as Iraq, the Horn of Africa, the Philippines, and elsewhere.

Bobby, thank you very much. That's why I hang out on this site -- I keep learning new things.

Bobby,

Given the following scenario; increased belligerence between Hezbollah and Hamas v Israel, hostilities (selective strikes by Israel against Syria such as missile sites and air defense positions), Iranian weapons continuing to flow to the battle fronts (in Iraq and Lebanon) with provocative behavior by Iran in the Gulf, can 1. Israel possibly stop missiles, take on Syria and still de-claw Iran? 2. Can we?

Follow up......Aren't NK, Syria, Hezbollah, AQ, Iran, and Hamas playing the same game with a little help from China and Russia?

Iran: Cavitation torpedoes, drones, cruise missiles, mobile missiles, significant air force with unknown quantity of stand off missiles, good air defense, mines, in-air refueling, stealth for missiles, subs, drones?, wmd (not including nukes yet), global network of terrorists, unknown jamming abilities, strategic geographical position and holders of some unknown slices of surprises....... Are we a Trojan horse in the Gulf or a vulnerable over-extended counterinsurgency mission?

I agree with McCain having the US send Putin a tough message at the G8. He called for a boycott. I wonder if YOU agree that time is running out for both Democratic appearance of backbone AND the Coalition of Most of the Free World (including India, Japan, Germany, England, Canada, Australia) to face the demonstrable radicals and China and Russia that enable them.

The media keeps repeating that Iraq has over burdened our military (short on equipment and munitions) and we therefore are unlikely to help Israel if conflict grows. What facts supports such a dismal assessment of our strategic capacity? Say it ain’t so.

Max,

The things is, whether or not the US military is "overstretched" depends on what the political objective are for what you want them to do. Capabilities are relative, not absolute, things.

If you want to destroy major infrastructure-- power plants, communications nodes, sewage systems, water treatment and storage facilities, bridges, highways-- the USAF can do that right now and pretty much with impunity. If we have reliable intelligence on just one-third of the Iranian nuclear development program, then the US Air Force certainly has the ability to render those targets unusable, thereby bringing the Iranian nuke program to a (albeit temporary) halt.

But both of those measures will leave the Iranian regime intact, with their military and security services to ensure the population stays under control -- and, more than likely in the event of an American strike, the Iranian citizenry (which, we're told, is currently frustrated with their political leadership) would close ranks against the infidels, thereby setting back hopes for a "soft" revolution from within; moreover, if our intelligence is inadequate, we may not render the Iranian nuke program inoperable, so much as it set it back a few months or years.

If you want to destroy (or more accurately, defeat) the Iranian military, then that's going to require putting in friendly ground forces. USAF air power (either air interdiction [XINT] or close air support [CAS]) can obliterate enemy armored and infantry forces, but it needs the enemy to mass his formations in order to provide a target; the enemy typically doesn't do this unless he's faced with an attacking ground threat (in which case he must mass to prevent from being destroyed piecemeal by tanks and infantry)-- that's what AirLand battle doctrine is all about.

Now, even accounting for expeditionary operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, etc., we certainly have more than enough ground forces to replicate a "Thunder Run" against the Iranian regime, although it would likely be a slower rate of advance than it was in OIF. But all that's going to do is destroy much of their conventional military force (driving the rest into sanctuaries along the Afghan border, if we're not prepared to chase them across the country) and force the Teheran regime underground. It would ensure that we could destroy known Iranian nuclear facilities, but we'd be leaving Iran in a state of anarchy that would almost certainly become the world's largest breeding ground for terrorist training and recruiting camps, and it could very well derail our efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Now if you're talking about a full-scale occupation of Iran, that would be really, really tricky. Iran has a population of 70 million-- three times either Afghanistan or Iraq-- and unlike in those two instances, there's probably not enough pre-existing indigenous resistance groups with which we could align to execute anything resembling the Downing Plan. Without major support from Alliance or Coalition partners (and counterinsurgency is precisely the kind of military operation that our traditional European allies refuse to do), the best we could probably do is secure a few key areas while the rest of the country descended into anarchy. That, of course, would suggest we implement something similar to Andy Krepinevich's "oil spot" strategy for long-term success. But we'd have to be prepared for a short-term hurricane-- with no guarantee for long-term success, mind you-- and few political leaders would be willing to endorse or sing on to such a strategy.

So I guess my point is that saying the US is "too overextended" to undertake a military operation really has to be viewed in the context of what that military operation would be. We still have the capability to bomb Iran's nuclear program back a decade, and we absolutely still have the capability to support South Korean ground forces in defeating the North Korean regime, if it came to that. But do we have the capability to, say, occupy Iran or China without suitable Allied or Coalition partners? Probably not, and that would probably still be true, even if we weren't currently committed to Afghanistan, Iraq, the Philippines, the Horn of Africa, etc. etc.

Thank you Bobby,

I take it then, that short of occupying adversaries or going up against Russia or China (without a draft and serious mobilization), our military does not find itself "overstretched" in regard to Iran, Syria, Iraq or even pre-emption against North Korea. I wonder where this steady drum beat of a “broken force” comes from.

When Tully said we are capable of landing expeditionary forces in Iran as well as take out their conventional forces, he was making a similar claim. He didn’t vouch for the intelligence necessary, however.

I would like to add for all; our occupation and rebuilding in a country beset by pre-exiting conditions of sectarian strife is the part of the DOD's mission abroad that is taxing the reserves. Simply taking out Saddam would not have cost so much. I suspect that our adversaries think that Iraq WILL become stable and that America WILL direct forces outward towards them. Do they think hitting now while we are not united and hesitant is their opportunity? They also notice the world is coming closer to being united against them in regard to the use of terrorism, threatening a UN member and creating wmd. This might explain the radical’s rush to confrontation as exhibited by weapon traffic to terrorists, terrorist conventions in Syria, Iran support for insurgents in Iraq, Iranian declarations of malicious intent along with weapon tests (even buzzing our Navy with drones). Our enemy(s) even see Russia and China vacillating and India, Japan and Germany moving closer to the US position. Iran and the Sunni Brotherhood have been unable up to now to kill Musharraf, overthrow moderate Arab governments or stir up war between Pakistan and India. They see Japan standing up to North Korea.

The other problem I alluded to was not answered however. I do not expect a detailed answer because it would be classified anyway. Perhaps, I might ask it like this: Given the inexpensive and easy to manufacture drones, cavitation torpedoes, stealth mines and the harder to build cruise missiles Iran is making, is our deployment in the Gulf safe from these weapons? One cheap drone nearly sank an Israeli gunship. A drone can contain radioactive material. In your opinion, do you sense we are on top of this escalating game and that we can protect ourselves, our allies and the Gulf if a bigger battle ensues?

At what point do you think a draft would be considered?

Lastly, in your opinion, are you of the school that early action prevents the increased danger of later action? Does the military prefer pre-emption before the present Iranian build up, or after they have fielded new weapons and defenses? I respect your hesitancy to answer that one.

With Iraq at their heels, does the military have a firm grasp of the possible dynamics and options along with the intelligence to locate the thousands of conventional and unconventional threats in Syria and Iran? Again, this would be your opinion.

Don't you just love the constant fire of questions? I just want you to know how much people here at ground zero, consider these questions as we speak. Part of the political support for our government comes from the trust we have in our government's well-planned options. Iraq has not been a trust booster. The fear is of course, civilians ask the military to act and then we read about a swarm of drones and torpedoes attacking out Navy, allied ports and oil tankers. Can consensus be reached in military circles reegarding the best uses of force, or will this White House impress it’s own options in matters most Americans trust to military experts in the field to conceive?

I suspect you will remind me of that slice containing unknowns. How confortable are you from your perch looking out towards the Gulf and the actions of Israel? Sorry for being such a pain.

Max NYC

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