A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics
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A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics | |
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July 08, 2006A Review of The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, by Ray Kurzweil, and Accelerando, by Charlie StrossBoth books are about pretty much the same thing: the imminence of the point where old-fashioned neurons are a minority of computation power, both in in terms of artificial AIs and within our own brains. That will have a number of interesting implications. AIs beyond "unaided-human" intelligence level will grow common. We will grow smart along with them, and become able to easily do things that are very hard now. Accurate uploading of humans into computers and backups of human consciousness will be both possible, and regular parts of society. Longevity will also continue to be on the increase. Kurzweil's book is long, well-written, thorough nonfiction. Stross' is fun, even better-written, moderate-length SF. I strongly recommend both, but I doubt you'll be shocked to read that you're likelier to make it through Stross. If long, engineering-related nonfiction isn't your thing, just get Stross. There's just one thing that bugs me about these books: despite having been an ardent Vernor Vinge fan since age 17, I've never bought into of a notion of a Singularity. It's never modelled past progress well, and I see the same kind of exponentially accelerating growth continuing into the future. The absolutely huge changes that Vinge, Kurzweil, and and Stross discuss will come upon society just as incrementally as before, and exponentially go from nothing to society-wide use, just like the Internet did, though the changes are of increasing importance. Kurzweil and Stross are calling the spot where artificially produced intelligence outweighs good ol' grey cells the Singularity, but I don't see what non-exponential things will be going on there. There is some interesting SF that's been out awhile now on relevant topics. Almost anything by Vinge, of course, but also a series of good novels by Iain Banks, set in a future called the Culture. Banks probably correctly noted that communism would be entirely feasible in an age with virtually unlimited computing power. Many Culture citizens do upload, but also many humans and drones voluntarily stay at standard-human level, and effectively are happy pets of those that do the work. Personally, I believe that capitalist societies will also continue to also exist indefinitely alongside the new communism. and also continue to outperform it until either quantum computing or (and without quantum, this'll take awhile) there's enough computing power to truly model our societies very accurately. Posted by Jon Kay at July 8, 2006 10:38 PMComments
This is funny, since I just finished reading Accelerando today. My overall impression of the book was that it was rather overwhelming, but also exciting, especially since it opens just ten years from now. As the Singularity approaches, Stross barely touches on the technology itself other than to say like "There was more progress in ten years than in the preceding 50,000". Then once the Singularity happens, he stays with the still-human main characters. The Singularity depicted strongly reminds me of the Transcend in Vinge's A Fire Upon the Deep. I also recommend Metaplanetary and Superluminal by Tony Daniel, for comparison purposes. Posted by: JonBuck at July 8, 2006 10:45 PMEven when I think his premises are wrong, Charles Stross is a fantastic writer. Always worth a read. Vinge too. That's why it's called science fiction. Stoss is exploring the human side of change, not wallowing in speculative techno-geekdom. Posted by: Tully at July 8, 2006 11:07 PMIt's interesting to me that hard-nosed science fiction writers keep trying to introduce something so akin to the Resurrection into their futures. I do agree with you that the odds of any sort of technology-induced "singularity" is unlikely in the extreme. Of course, I also think it's going to be much longer than people like Kurzweil think before we have real computer intelligence, able to back up the brain, and so forth. Doing so will certainly raise some fascinating questions about the nature of the soul. One of the most interesting future scenarios I ever read involved a society where productivity had increased so much, poor people were required to consume a certain amount (of food, clothing, you name it), while rich people had lower rations and were required to use less stuff, and so had more leisure. The poorest people had to walk on treadmills constantly just to wear their shoes out. One day, we'll have something close to the Star Trek replicator, and there will be no need for humans to work to make material things. We will be able to afford for all people to have any material thing desired, which will really screw with our economic theories. Posted by: PatHMV at July 9, 2006 12:46 AMPat: Stross deals with the economic consequences of the technology extensively. In the book, the increasingly distruptive nature of the ever-upward-spiraling technology creates an almost constant state of boom and recession. Neither Capitalism nor Communism work any more, since there's no longer such as thing as scarcity. The business models... all I can really tell you is to read the book. Posted by: JonBuck at July 9, 2006 01:08 AMThe Golden Age by John C. Wright brought Kurzweil to mind when I read it. AI and immortality, aren't givens on the exponential curve technology has taken, but there are certainly going to be some rapid changes coming.
I ?think? that what Jon is saying is that exponential curves don't have a point that looks any different from any other point on the curve, therefore as humans viewing our rate of increasing technology there wouldn't be any "singularity" or that the singularity is in fact right now, has been and always will be right now throughout human history. There was an interesting discussion of this at The Technium . There was a point made I agree with. "...while in mathematical theory the exponential curve" (unscaled) "doesn't have a singularity, for all practical purposes it has, because humans are not scale-free." The limit of a human lifetime limits the amount of change we can handle. Flesh and blood will be unable to keep pace with the acceleration of change. Call it the transformation from Darwinian evolution to a type of technical Lamarkian evolution (inheritance of adaptation). Most likely the singularity will only be recognizable in retrospect, but my view is that while it isn't a given, we appear to be approaching it if Moore's law holds and genetics/nanotech/robotics reach some of the predicted points. Posted by: Dennis at July 9, 2006 04:15 AMCleanup on Aisle 3! Posted by: Tully at July 9, 2006 02:32 PM(Yeah, yeah. But don't people in this thread want to hear about these surely-beautiful ringtones?)
Now, it's true that people have been talking for decades about strong AI just being around the corner. During the '80s, strong AI was looked on as the equivalent of fusion power for computing: perpetually around the corner. But this time, I think we really are getting close. When people talked out of their hats in the 60s and 70s, they didn't know how powerful a computing device good ol'fashioned brains really are. Also, early AI researchers thought that simplified approximations would go farther than they actually did (though they did play some roles in complicated applications).Now we have a pretty good idea. And we know, more or less, what the curve of advancing computing power is like. It could be that we'll hit a bottleneck to exponentially advancing available computing power; many people thought we had at 90nm. But this kind of hard-to-get-past problem has happened before, and taken awhile to fix, but then skated past, and it was the same thing at 90. Those of us who actually spend our working days supporting (as opposed to just using) computers, whether mainframe or distributed, somehow always seem to have much lower expectations for this kind of massive step forward. Possibly because we are all too aware of just how fragile, bug-ridden, and generally immature the technology is. Don't get me wrong, computers have made massive improvements in our productivity and in our lives. But the damage that a hacker could easily do to our economy far exceeds anything a physical terrorist could hope to accomplish. And the danger to our infrastructure from hackers, annoying as they frequently are, is low compared to the danger from accident, poor design, inadequate implementation, etc., etc., etc. In short, Kurzweil is a flaming optimist. Posted by: wj at July 9, 2006 03:42 PMI agree with wj that Kurzweil is far, far too optimistic. In fact, he thinks he can stay alive long enough to become immortal. And Pat's point about the singularity taking on the flavor of the resurrection is well taken. It makes it hard to swallow. The end is near. Nonetheless graphs is graphs. There it is in black and white. It has to be true. Let's hope the AI treats us nice. Posted by: Dennis at July 9, 2006 10:39 PMwj sez: That's because you're too busy putting out fires to look where things are going. I'm sure dealing with increasingly sophisticated worms makes it a little hard, maybe, to see that things are getting better in addition to worse. It's sometimes hard to believe that my employer's software really can get better. But it does. Quickly and spectacularly. Dennis notes: ...yeah. I believed very little of that chapter. That seemed like mostly wishful thinking. In fact, life expectancies have been growing at a certain rate that I expect to continue, even in the face of increased knowledge, because reasons for death are so individual. If you beat a reason for death that gets 10M Americans, you still don't see an immediate huge rise in life expectancies, because it's only 1/30th of the populace, and they're gotten by something else, along the same kind of statistical shape as before. I wish he hadn't included it because it kind of discredits the book.Now, it's true that resetting age counters could help dramatically, but that seems a way off, and how many different counters will need to be fixed? It's also true that throughout the book, I kept thinking he was overoptimistic on the edges, just as I kept thinking Diamond's Collapse was pushing the edges of overpessimism. But most of the other chapters were much stronger, based more on data than hope. The evidence that we'll see strong AI in the early 21st century seems very strong to me, as it does for effectively dramatically enhanced effective human intelligence via neural simulation, intelligence and uploading late by late in the century. Posted by: Jon Kay at July 9, 2006 11:19 PMAs n former English major, I know that one stream of literary thought on science fiction is this; it provides a foreign (in the sense of substantially different) environment that makes it safer for speculation about the human condition. Singularity is a gripping topic because the theme is transcendence, which is an extremely attractive ideal to mortals, whose greatest fear is mortality and its attendant unknown(s). So it's not very surprising when science fiction slides into a domain of promising reassurance for what the future holds when one contemplates mortality. As I'm sure I must have said before, science is in many respects like religion. It's a type of faith that's different in many respects, but it has a strong component of faith nevertheless. As does art. Science has elements of both art and religion. More people would notice and indeed celebrate this if it weren't for the problem that each church has its own priests in charge of the given faith, and each church insists on its own pre-eminence. Posted by: bk at July 10, 2006 09:22 AMI haven't read either book..... but I know that A.I. is nowhere near as advanced as those guys seem to think it is... and doesn't look like it's going to be ANY TIME SOON... it MAY NEVER BE. Computers, are great at doing some things (complex calculations) and processing power has been exploding but the key to real intelligence is in the software......and it isn't even close to real intelligence. I'm not an expert on A.I. but our Lead Developer, who sits across the aisle for me did his Masters on it..... he laughs hystericaly whenever he reads stuff like that or sees it in a movie. In other words.... don't hold your breath. Posted by: cengel at July 10, 2006 02:35 PMOver at Dean's World, a handy list of signs that the Singularity has arrived.... A highlight: 6) You're evicted from your body, which is seized by the county and sold for back taxes. 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