A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics
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A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics | |
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July 05, 2006Major scientific breakthroughThe closure, which could cost gaming operators more than $10 million a day in wagers and the state millions in taxes, comes after Gov. Jon Corzine shut down non-essential state services on July 1 and a New Jersey appellate court rejected a plea by casinos to stay open.The practical upshot of all this is that "[i]f the casinos shut down, the state would lose an estimated $2 million in tax revenue each day they stayed closed," "more than 60,000 people are out of work until legislators can agree on a budget ... [and] [t]he state also will lose another $2 million a day by closing the lottery system." Of course, the really intriguing thing about this is that New Jersey is having their budget crisis in a purely non-partisan fashion. Technically, they have to: New Jersey has a Democratic governor and Democratic majorities in both chambers of its legislature, 48 to 32 and 22 to 18 respectively. So remember, New Joisians: when you go to the polls this fall to vote for your assemblymen, remember what your governor has said ("Corzine accus[ed] legislators of putting politics above good government") and remember who he's talking about. All in all - with friends like this, who needs a GOP marketing budget? Better yet, there was already a firm feeling that although New Jersey leans Democratic, if the GOP were going to pull off an upset anywhere this fall, it would be to beat Conzine's handpicked successor Bob Menendez. It's not readily apparent if their could be any more stunningly timely event to suggest to the New Jersey electorate that maybe they want to look at the other side of the ticket this fall,at Tom Kean. Posted by Simon at July 5, 2006 08:50 PMComments
It does have echoes of 1990, where the NJ electorate took out their frustration on newly-elected tax-hiking Gov. Florio by nearly unseating Bill Bradley. Tom Kean 2.0's a better candidate than the Christine Whitman of 1990 and may well send Menendez packing. Posted by: Mark Byron at July 5, 2006 09:33 PMIt's always interesting in such cases of government shutdown brinksmanship to see who the voters decide deserves the credit or the blame. Ultimately, it's always the case that it takes 2 to tango since presumably the shutdown could be averted if one or the other parties (gov't...legislature) decides to blink. Anyone from NJ have an executive summary of the conflict? Is Kean taking a stand from the sidelines. If so, can we assume that his stand is that he'd have found a way to balance the budget by tightening belts and avoiding any new taxes? If so, can we further assume that such a stand is short on the specifics of how he'd have done so? Posted by: bk at July 6, 2006 09:40 AMOne can argue that making the unpopular move is a sign of leadership. I suppose it would have been easier politically for Corzine to cave-in, in order to avoid a government shut-down during the height of the summer tourist season. Naturally people are going to hold the governor responsible, and I'm sure the anger will be directed at him. Don't we always condemn politicians for pandering and for making decisions based on political considerations, or refusing to make tough decisions that may hurt them politically? Posted by: Laura at July 6, 2006 11:49 AMI think it likely that Tom Kean, Jr. will be elected defeating Menendez. Appointed Senators have a horrible track record when it comes to re-election. Most of them have lost. But for the record New Jerseyians hold their State elections in odd-numbered years, so they won't be voting on their assemblymen this Fall. Posted by: Cavalier829 at July 6, 2006 12:21 PMThat's a really good point Laura. And that's the classical western image of leadership, where the leader leads and the people hopefully follow. There's another viewpoint on leadership which suggests that in politics you're a fool to try to lead the people in a direction they are not lnclined to go. You see a parade, you run to the front and start leading it, and maybe you can steer it a little bit. Corzine has thrown down the gauntlet, and that's to both his credit and his peril. He is willing to raise the sales tax to balance the budget. The legislature is apparently not, though I don't know if they have a plan B consists of more than passing an unbalanced budget. I think there's some merit to the notion that sometimes you need to cause pain to force people to pay attention and take a stand. I'm a big fan of soplvency, so I can admire any leader who says "OK, we're going to balance this budget one way or another. Tax hike or service cuts, whch do you prefer? I have little respect for "spend more than we have and hope it turns out OK." Anyone know, has Corzine already declared he's not in it for the next race? If so, maybe he's "taking one for the team," trying to get the tax hike through so that Menendez can't be blamed. Maybe NJ democrats believe that "how to balance" is a losing issue for Menendez so they're putting on a show where the bad guy gets to be, surprise surprise, the only one NOT running for re-election. That's a clever play if you can get it to pay off. Posted by: bk at July 6, 2006 12:47 PMIf the voters perceive that they will get something out of the tax rise they may NOT punish the Dems. By this I mean a balanced budget or less congested roads as they're attempting in Virginia. If Democrats embrace one-project per election policies they may find that the voters are amenable. Voters just don't want to pay for the profligacy of the politicians. "Oops, we have to pay for our next election. Here's the bill, New Jerseyans. Toodles." Posted by: Cavalier829 at July 6, 2006 01:45 PMI spent 10 years living in Jersey, I also had the pleasure of living under the Christie Whitman administration. When she took office, the sales tax was 7% - one of her goals was to reduce taxes, so she rolled back the sales tax to 6% - as was pointed out in many economic sections of newspapers, this amounted to about $78 per year per family (not person, family) - a realatively minor amount which, over the course of a year, really makes zero difference. about $135 per week... it cost the state 2 Billion dollars, force labor standoffs in almost every aspect of state government and lowered distributions to school systems which then had to raise property taxes. 1% sales tax makes little difference to the average joe, but makes a big difference to him when he does not pay it and all his town taxes go up..... 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