Centerfield

I hate to break it to you, but imagine the lack of financial tracking in regards to private global sub purchases and systems to add stealth. Imagine the sale of drones from commercial sources, or the purchase of bio lab technology. It is imperative we stop the nexus of high tech and terrorism networks including the activities of our supposed Muslim allies. We must expose corporate transactions as well as the rich. Remember, the role China and Russia play aiding and abetting often requires some financial records. Their involvement with suspect groups must also be tracked. Financial tracking is extremely important if we want to stop the transfer of technology into the hands of terrorists and their supporters. Had such intelligence been available in 1992-2000, we could have spotted the oil for food scandal. Such intelligence is critical to stop organized crime, slavery traffic and drug cartels. All dual use technology must be tracked. Even professionals willing to sell their services should be watched. One day money will literally talk.

As far as this being a less than hot situation, this is a pause between events. All we need to be is wrong once and the ratchet of US counterforce goes up. A stealth sub launch on the US cannot leave a paper trail or Global Strike will rain down on its organizers. The idea that we should wait until attacked or until after our adversaries have acquired wmd and delivery systems is absurd. Imagine Bush on steroids after Washington D.C. is struck.

Again. I do not know if everyone realizes the cusp we are on in regard to terrorist capabilities. Iranian drones recently buzzed our warships. Clandestine launches are not far off. If no one sees a threat from Iran for the next ten years, I’m talking to a brick wall. Already their ieds are in Iraq. Yes, Osama has called for a war against the Shiites, but that is because he believes the West won't occupy an area during civil war. No, I suggest we prevent one and Osama's remarks ought to bring the sectarian parties closer together, given the bloodbath Bin Laden is stoking. It must be apparent to Osama that many Muslim allies are cracking down on his cells. I think he envisions a sectarian clash to broaden the violence and chaos. If you think the radicals have cooled it, look at Somalia, Nigeria, Sudan and numerous other enclaves. And the resources available to these people is quite large, therefore the need to maintain a continued intelligence war. Missiles cost money, drones and bio labs cost money. Make them go back to the money underground and hope informants reveal details before attacks occur. That’s my take….

P.S. if tracking bank records blows your mind, look here. Imagine the privacy issues involved in this technology. After the next attack all we might have to trace to its source may be in the data Big Brother is obtaining now. I fear only a lack of judical/Congressional oversight and wasteful programs. The political dark ages produced in the aftermath of sucessful attacks far out weigh the dangers of going back to pre 9/11 thinking.

While there may be some people who object to all examination of financial data, I think the main objection is to the collection on such a broad-brush basis. And to the _other_ kinds of collection which have been going on, without even the basic warrants that SWIFT forced this administration to get for the financial data.

Certainly there are things which need to be done which were not thought of (nor technologically possible) when the current rules were written. But that is not a long-term excuse for going without rules. And what Jon is saying (I hope) is that it's time and past time that Congress get itself together and start crafting those rules. Not to keep the government from doing things that need to be done. But to keep them from doing things which are NOT necessary to the War on Terrorism (or whatever name you prefer to apply to it).

Note, I think the Administration deserves kudos for this reality of low danger. But isn't it time to start being more skeptical about things like the extension of wiretapping / financial data collection to friends of suspects that the Patriot Act allows, TSA arrangements, and warrantless wiretapping and financial data collection?

So is it your claim that if the government STOPPED doing those things, terrorism would decline?

The Bali attack didn't take out any critical infrastructure at all, but it did billions of dollars in damage to the Balinese economy. As did the London tube bombings to the British economy. That's very real damage, if not as bloody and showy as the twin towers. Tourism dollars may not be showy, but they're still real money. Nor are those dead any less dead because they were measured in dozens rather than thousands. (Note that the Spanish train bombing killed fewer people than the Bali attack.)

Hot war, cold war--just words. It's still a real war.

The only reason there hasnt been an attack is BECAUSE of the aggressive counter-terror activities of the world governemts (if you think the US is doing all of this, you are sadly mistaken). The US government does less tracking than most countries, like Japan, the UK, Germany. Remember, those countries arent "free" like ours, they dont need "warrants" for wiretapping and things of that nature. So, go ahead, ballyhoo against the administrations foreign wiretapping, financial tracking, etc. All they will do is get someone else to do it for them. Wouldnt yuou rather have an accountable source doing it than some foreign body?

It bothers me that people will refuse to discuss an issue until it is too late. The 9-11 commission recommendations were nearly universally supported. Kerry made them an election issue when the President did not universally implement them. Now the results of those recommendations, specifically “the wall” between intelligence and law enforcement are causing a lot of people to attack the president. The “wall” got a lot of the blame for not preventing the attacks. The NSA issues, and the Swift monitoring were the integration of intelligence agencies and law enforcement. These are what life without the “wall” look like.

The president should have forced congress to re-write the laws to specifically allow these types of intelligence gathering. Advancements in technology have made some old laws like FISA difficult to reconcile. That does not in my opinion excuse those people who made it clear that the “wall” must be taken down and who are now attacking the president for doing just that. The President approved these programs, but they were designed by non-partisan career professionals in the NSA and other agencies and given to him for approval.

The Founders did have a desire to limit the power of the President, however they also recognized that a weak executive figurehead was paralyzing. The balancing of the branches of government was an amazing achievement that has worked well. The executive branch is a co-equal branch of government. Congress has no authority to enforce the laws they pass, without an effective executive branch Congress is useless.

Well, first, as others have noted, it is quite unwise to look at the standings, determine that we have reached a level of "success," and that-- therefore-- the measures implemented to lead to that success can be rolled back. As an example, if California had a soaring crime rate, and the government put 200,000 new police officers on the streets and combined them with $25 billion annually for crime prevention measures (including afterschool programs), let us hypothesize that the crime rate would fall. If it fell below some acceptable threshold, and Californians then fired the 200,000 cops and ended the crime prevention programs, it would be ridiculous to think the crime rate wouldn't begin to climb once again. That doesn't mean we need all 200,000 cops or that the afterschool programs have to approach $25 million; it does mean that we can't eliminate the tools we've used to achieve our "success" and still expect to remain "successful."

But as for:

I feel the hot war is over. Well, there's two parts to what remains. I see Iraq and Afghanistan as into occupation. That's long, hard, and tricky - we could easily still be there in decades - but our position at this time is militarily unthreatened. How is it war?

Let me just say that the "hot" war might look like it's over for civilians living in the relative comfort and safety of the USA, but I can assure you that it is still quite "hot" for those of us Soldiers, Marines, and intelligence operatives who are risking their lives in Afghanistan, Iraq, the Horn of Africa, and elsewhere. Indeed, I would submit to you that anyone who thinks the "hot" war in the struggle against violent extremism is over is almost certainly someone who is not involved in the Defense, State, or Homeland Security Departments or any of our alphabet soup of intelligence agencies-- in other words, the only person who would say that would be someone who doesn't realize the sacrifices that are being undertaken to protect their security.

But thinking that our position is "militarily unthreatened" demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of what we're calling "fourth generation warfare" and how the insurgents hope to use their asymmetric military campaign to defeat the US-led Coalition by reducing our public resolve and forcing a premature withdrawal-- a strategy, might I add, that worked for our adversaries in Somalia, Lebanon, and Vietnam over the last three decades; it remains to be seen if their effort will bear fruit this November. But just because a conflict doesn't look like the Korean War or the Battle of the Bulge doesn't mean it's not a "hot" war. Whether we call them unconventional wars, guerrilla wars, low-intensity conflicts, or "small" wars, the reality is that this kind of war is just as much a part of historical "hot" warfare as the conventional, linear-based maneuver warfare. Calling it anything less demonstrates a lack of understanding of basic military strategy.

Without discussing the technicalities of any particular action (some of which seems to be akin to how many angels can fit on the head of a pin), it seems to me that we need to find some sort of balance. I am the first to acknowledge that liberals, in general, have taken a head in the sand approach to terrorism in a lot of cases. They could have been coming up with constructive approaches to balance security and civil liberties but, instead, in many cases, have acted as if the world had not changed. On the other hand, I think many conservatives (and some on this blog) have treated the war on terror--to the extent there is such a thing--as all encompassing to the extent that there should be no restrictions on anything the government does. I think there is a lot of talking past each other. We need to address some fundamental issues: how far CAN you go in addressing security before you do start infringing basic civil liberties?

As I have said here in the past,I am very skeptical about using the language of war and war powers in addressing a situation that really is almost sui generis. I think it is dangerous to treat the threat of terrorism as justifying a constant war time footing giving the president extraordinary powers. Even if terrorism is a real threat--as it undoubtedly is--there must be some limits even at the expense of some security. Otherwise, the terrorists really have won. The fact is, you don't have to be a "Bush-hater" to recognize the temptation of aggrandizing power to any administration, no matter how well-meaning. That's why we have checks and balances. I'm not saying that we should go back to the pre-9/11 world, but I don't think we should simply give the administration a pass on all its actions because of the threat.

As for the idea that the founders wanted a strong executive, that is undoubtedly true, but, given the furor over attempts by Washington, Jefferson and Jackson to exert perogatives, I don't think you can take this too far--they were also afraid of overwheening executive power.

What wj and Marc said.

I understand that terrorism is a real threat, and understand that if we don't have programs like Swift, we'll be seeing another 9/11 in the not-too-distant future. I'm not just an anti-war left-winger who thinks we can just ignore the terrorists. Also, I understand that you guys aren't all out to take my liberties, but are on the same side.

What I do believe is that this is the right time to reconsider some of these programs and think about how they can be redesigned more in accordance with liberty and constitutional principles.

I raise the point of cold vs hot war because alot of these programs were designed in the heat of action, notably in the post-9/11 rush to speedily come up with programs to contain and defeat Al'Qaeda and possibly other related terrorist threats. There was alot of brilliance in how they were devised and implemented, and those measures are IMHO succeeding.

But aren't we beyond a mode of having to respond quickly to terrorist threats now? Don't we have time to redesign these programs now to give them a better-founded basis in traditional American liberties? Who knows, we might also improve their effectiveness in other ways while we're at it.

Can't the same widely distributed brilliance and entrepreneurialism that beat Al'Qaeda also work on the side of liberty to Constitutionalize the vital measures used?

I understand that terrorism is a real threat, and understand that if we don't have programs like Swift, we'll be seeing another 9/11 in the not-too-distant future....But aren't we beyond a mode of having to respond quickly to terrorist threats now? Don't we have time to redesign these programs now to give them a better-founded basis in traditional American liberties?...Can't the same widely distributed brilliance and entrepreneurialism that beat Al'Qaeda also work on the side of liberty to Constitutionalize the vital measures used?

That you can say something like that and simultaneously take pride in the NYT exposing and crippling or destroying a perfectly legal and (formerly) effective secret program that posed no Constitutional issues at all speaks volumes about the process of cognitive dissonance.

=Tully, I'm willing to bet $40, deliverable to the charity of the chooser's choosing, that the Swift program or something as good will still be around in a year. All involved need the program too much for it to go away. I'd be willing to do the same for five years out if if weren't for the difficulties of remembering the bet.

Of course, we can't KNOW, per se, so I guess we'll just have to see if news of its death appears in open news. I'd think it probably would, since there'd no longer be a need to keep secrets about it.

You game?

To make a bet that it is impossible to determine the winner of, unless another perfectly legal and classified and effective program is once again crippled or destroyed by the self-proclaimed "fourth branch" of government?

Let me put that paradox in black and white for you, Jon. If it's "just as good" you won't know it exists. If you know it exists, it's not "just as good." TFTP was as good as it gets--until it was revealed, when it became at best crippled.

I'm not the one who's proud of the willful commission of national security felonies on the part of the press, crimes that will likely result in the deaths of innocents, will impair our ability to prevent same, by destroying perfectly legal and effective tools for fighting terrorism, tools that depend on secrecy. I am not the person who celebrates such things. That, by your own admission, would be you.

I'll give that a miss. I don't root for failure.

> ... became at best crippled.

If it's so crippled, you'll have no problem explaining a line of serious difficulty the program faces now that it didn't face before, keeping in mind that senior Al'Qaeda leadership surely understood that banks were closed to them. Not only are they not stupid, but in case they are, Western media and rightie blogs have featured plenty of articles explaining it to them.

> TFTP was as good as it gets--until it was revealed, when it became at best crippled.

"...as good as it gets?" How about Echelon or Predator?

They didn't push Constitutional limits at all, yet still managed to deal constructively with vast dataflows.

Whoops! I meant Carnivore, not Predator.

I don't need to explain a laundry list of straw men, Jon, and shan't. If you wish to make specific arguments relating to TFTP, go right ahead and I will ridicule as appropriate. That oughta keep me busy enough, as the bounds of even feeble rationalization are infinite.

I will nail that incredibly idiotic "Everyone Knew" straw man one more time. If "everyone knew," why did the NYT call it a "secret" program, or even bother to tell us about it at all? If "everyone knew," why didn't Congress in general or the CIA know? If "everyone knew," why didn't the NYT use exclusively public sources for its article, instead of exclusively anonymous criminal leakages? If "everyone knew," why was it working? And it most assuredly WAS working. Past tense.

Answer: Everyone didn't know. It was a covert program and neither the existence of the specific program nor its operational details were public knowledge. And those are what made it effective. The clandestine cooperation of foreign governments also made it effective--cooperation that is now much more difficult to obtain for future programs, and to keep for current ones, both those still secret and those no longer clandestine.

Trying to change the subject to other programs isn't flying. They can rise or fall on their own merits. We have a nice clean example here, the title of your piece, the object of your ardor, and you openly stated your specific pride in the NYT's feloniously criminal outing of TFTP, the potential results of their actions, and your opinion of the rightness of said criminal action(s). So don't try to change the subject. Go right ahead with your initial claims--justify it! Wanna go with the "it won't kill all that many" line again? I know Pat will be interested in hearing you attempt to minimize the dozens dead in the London bombings one more time--since a couple of his close relations missed being blown to bits by moments over there.

Politics says that the NYT personnel responsible will almost certainly never be prosecuted. At most they will make their claims to being a protected class of nobility while refusing to testify, and then sit around the cellblock whining that the courts disagree with that claim until the contempt charges age out. But it was no less a felony, no less despicable, no less a depraved indifference to the predictable results of the actions, and those who leaked to the NYT can and should be prosecuted, if'n we can catch 'em.

> straw men

Good word, ahem. I guess our argument is beyond the domain of reasonable debate now, so I'll let it ride now.

Gee I love double standards.
When the NYT published a number of leaks that supported the case for the war with Iraq nary a peep was heard. In fact the administration officials used such as a jumping off point to present their talking points. Until you republicans can make up your minds as to which leaks are prosecutable or if all leaks regarding national security should be treated equally then you'll just appear to be pure partisans, talking points included. Right now the impression is that the following is the typical GOP litmus test: does the leak help the republican cause or hurt it? If so, complement it and use it. If not, loose the dawgs.

As for the rest, I reiterate, the assumption that Al-Queda has little or no understanding of international banking or the surveillance therein and therefore hadn't a clue as to what kind of surveillance the US was doing should take a close look at the drug trade and how 'successful' it is.

BTW, I'm still waiting for Novak to be prosecuted, but alas, the double standard thing......
He'll get away scott free as any traitor with a GOP membership card can.

and that is my purely partisan comment of the week.

> straw men

Good word, ahem. I guess our argument is beyond the domain of reasonable debate now, so I'll let it ride now.

Also there seems to be a number of people, Tully included, who "know" the extent of the impact of the NYTs report on the program. Tully "knows" it has been destroyed or crippled, he "knows that it was effective, he "knows" it was legal and yet there is no way Tully could really "know" any of this. There is simply not enough information on the program to make any of those claims.

But Rick, is there any reason to think that the public disclosures helped?

Also there seems to be a number of people, Tully included, who "know" the extent of the impact of the NYTs report on the program. Tully "knows" it has been destroyed or crippled, he "knows that it was effective, he "knows" it was legal and yet there is no way Tully could really "know" any of this. There is simply not enough information on the program to make any of those claims.

BS, Rick. There is more than enough evidence to confidently assert all those claims, much of it in the NYT article itself. You don't have to know how bad the damage is to know it's been seriously damaged, likely killed off for any practical purpose. You can always wait for the autopsy report to verify it's not pinin' for the fjords, but to anyone familiar with how such programs work, that's parrot's either dead or deep into Cheyne-Stokes respiration. Jon conceded all these points in the earlier thread, and said he was proud of the NYT's outing of the TFTP.

Let's check the list, using only public sources, including the NYT article itself:

Crippled at minimum--check. Foreign officials in both government and industry whose cooperation was essential have been exposed, and are under heavy political pressure to cease all cooperation. They're also now terrorist targets in their own right, from having been publicly identified. This does not inspire future assistance from others for new programs--they know that they may end with a big red X painted on them by the NYT or other media. That by itself impedes future efforts at gaining the cooperation of foreign governments and individuals. "Hey, help us out, and you too can be a target!" The nexus of the program has been identified, and the depth and particulars of the type of information being derived revealed, making it much more avoidable at minimum. So, crippled at best, foreign assistance at risk, and future efforts and other (still clandestine) programs impeded or imperiled.

Legal--by every single account including the NYT's, check. Fits the legal forms, done by the book, even admin opponent Jack Murtha assured the NYT it was legal and begged them not to expose it. No substantiated allegations at all of illegality from the NYT itself, just semantic shading of the program as somehow reprehensible.

Effective--check. Capture of Hambali, whose bombing in Bali killed over 200. Hambali was the liason between Al Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiah, #2 in JI, and head of the JI underground terrorist wing. Up to his ears in the Phillipines airliner bombing plot and the Pope assassination plot, as both liasion and financier shuttling AQ money to the operaters. He was known as "the bin Laden of Southeast Asia." When arrested Hambali was planning an attack on the APEC summit designed to kill 21 world leaders including Bush. What else? Info contributing to the capture of several of the London tube bombers, and possible prevention of additional follow-up attacks by them (confirmed by the UK gov't). Prevention of at least a half-dozen suicide bombings in Israel (confirmed by the Israeli gov't). Capture of an AQ money launderer who transferred $200K to AQ in Pakistan (convicted). That's the minimum--we don't know it all, of course. But we know enough. It was effective.

Legal. Effective. Crippled or dead. Thank you, NYT.

> Legal--by every single account including the NYT's, check.

Actually, that's not the case. Allow me to repeat what the Times said.

The program, however, is a significant departure from typical practice in how the government acquires Americans' financial records. Treasury officials did not seek individual court-approved warrants or subpoenas to examine specific transactions, instead relying on broad administrative subpoenas for millions of records from the cooperative, known as Swift.

Later in the article, they also say:

Several outside banking experts, however, say that financial privacy
laws are murky and sometimes contradictory and that the program raises
difficult legal and public policy question

The Times article merely stated that the Administration had a legal theory on the subject on why it was legal and explained said theory. This looks to me like a controversy it'd take the Supreme Court to resolve for sure. Thus, it seems to me hard to say it's definitely legal yet.

> Foreign officials in both government and industry whose cooperation
> was essential have been exposed,

I didn't see any names in that article beyond the one Treasury executive used to establish its bona fides and a some big guys who've already left service, like Greenspan. Nobody particularly involved in the program was mentioned. It's very bad that Swift's involvement proper has been outed. As a group, they'll have to beef up their security and wonder. That's the biggest bit I regret from this.

> This does not inspire future assistance from others for new
> programs--they know that they may end with a big red X painted on
> them by the NYT or other media.

I think Swift and most of our allies have repeatedly demonstrated courage in this conflict. The article said that their biggest trouble was the questions about its legality.

Learn to read a statute, Jon. Warrants are NOT required to examine bank records. Big giant straw man, built by complete ignorance of the law. It's 100% legal. Completely. SCOTUS so ruled decades back, Congress wrote a partially limiting statute, which was complied with. Even if it offends your personal sense of privacy rights for terrorists. The relevant statute is the Right to Financial Privacy Act of 1978. USC Title 12 Chapter 35 Sections 3401-3422. You can find it in ten seconds on Google. Why not actually check the applicable law, instead of trying to read something into that article that simply isn't there? (Hint for future: never get your legal opinions from journalists.)

Not one single substantiated allegation of illegality, as I said. Just semantic posturing on the part of Lichtblau and Risen to imply reprehensibility, shaded with anonymous quotes from officials who themselves make no allegation of illegality, but further shade their statements into "difficult questions." It's not difficult at all. Read the statute.

So go ahead, cite the particulars that you think makes it illegal, so I can tell you in detail why you're wrong. By the way, did you know that NYT had an op/ed in late 2001 calling for the admin to take just such measures? That Lichtblau himself wrote a really whiny article last year complaining that the admin wasn't exercising its powers of terrorist fund tracing? Now he's pissed they were actually doing so all along. With the NYT, damned if you do, damned if you don't. All anti, all the time.

I didn't see any names in that article beyond the one Treasury executive used to establish its bona fides and a some big guys who've already left service, like Greenspan.

Extremely feeble, dude. The board of SWIFT is a mere 25 members, and their names are easily available via Google. They now have targets on 'em. Not just for terrorists, but for domestic political opponents and professional competitors. As do those in the Belgian government who were in the loop. As with other programs, there are often foreign governments and non-gov't organizations that are willing to be quietly helpful. They're NOT willing to put their nations, themselves, or their families on the terrorist target list, or hand issues to their domestic political opponents who do not feel inclined to assist the US.

> Not one single substantiated allegation of illegality, as I said.

Oh, yes, just like Gore's "No controlling authority...."

> By the way, did you know that NYT had an op/ed in late 2001 calling for the admin to take just such measures?

NYT expects programs to have more accountability. What's FISA, a potted plant?

> Extremely feeble, dude. The board of SWIFT ...

Could you please READ my responses? I already conceded that point. This is my last response on the subject for the nonce. Time to move on....

FISA is not involved here, Jon, and I note that despite a massive investigation in that case (which is patently not THIS case) no violations of FISA were found. There IS a controlling legal authority here. It's RFPA 1978, which is 12 USC 35 3401-3422 as cited. It was followed. The program was legal, with specific statutory authorization from Congress, said statute pre-existing this admin by over two decades.

Nor is the NYT in charge of the government, regardless of their own opinion on the matter. They have no special privilege under the law, no grant of nobility, no right not enjoyed by absolutely everyone else. They have (as we all do) the right to publish freely. They do NOT have any right to be free of the legal (and moral) consequences of their actions.

I fully realize that, even though the courts are clear that the NYT personnel involved CAN be prosecuted for national security violations, serious felonies carrying ten-year penalties per count, for political reasons it is vanishingly unlikely that they will be prosecuted. But I sincerely hope that a prosecutor is assigned to investigate the leakage, and the reporters and editorial personnel who aided and abetted any current or former government officials in committing said national security violations are called to testify as to same in open court. And that if they wanna try to claim that institutional title of nobility, they get the same response that Cooper and Miller did--contempt citations, so they can sit in a cell and ponder on their lack of supra-legal status. And that the leakers from inside government are prosecuted to the full extent of the law on each and every count.

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