Centerfield

Yeah, I have been reading about this race a little bit and am a fan of Healy's from what I know. I heard a rumor that Mihos will accept a running mate spot when Healy wins the primary, that is if he doesn't decide to run as an independent. I think Healy/Mihos makes one hecuva ticket, but the Dems got to take back Mass eventually, right?

Really, Rick? My gut tells me Healey has no shot and that Reilly is going to win easily. I think after the Dukakis-Weld-Cellluci-Swift-Romney run, MA voters are tired of

-ambitious governors who see the office as a stepping stone (sorry, Deval Patrick)

-former vice toadies (sorry Kerry Healey)

I think the voters want someone who'll be happy to be the mayor of the state, and seems old enough to project generativity, caring about the state and the electorate over cronyism. The fact that Healey's husband is a rich businessman is a big strike.

My money is on the old Irish democrat. I expect gigantic blue-collar turnout from unions, those who rely on social services, and catholics who'll vote for a fatherly figure.

I don't think anyone gives a crap about this lt. gov. snafu, and I also think that the story of Reilly trying to protect a friend's family from a zealous media over a possible drunken-driving death actually gained him more votes than it lost.

Oh, and I think there's just an expiration date on the GOP holding the governorship. I think their luck has run out. There will be a Jacksonian rise by democrats here.

Healey is going to have to carry the weight for every conceived GOP sin of the past decade or more. The democrats will play "remember when" and talk about how the GOP has sold of tons of state assets, etc., etc. And deserve's got nothing to do with it, BTW. Healey doesn't have the record or the gravitass or the charisma to carry that weight. I think she's a road apple.

There will be a point where it seems close, but come election day, it won't be. IMO.

Tom Reilly can recover from his series of missteps, but only if his fundraising capabilities remain intact. He is basically done if he can't raise money. Deval Patrick is certainly strengthened by the Reilly missteps, even he has also revealed his own past tax problems.

Kerry Healey is virtually unelectable this year. Her political inexperience is likely to prevent her from gaining significant traction. (I'm not sure I would describe her as a "road apple," though.) She could possibly win only if she faced Tom Reilly one-on-one in November. If Christy Mihos runs as an independent - increasingly likely - Healey will lose either to Mihos or either Reilly or Patrick.

I think the opposite. Healey only has a chance in the general election if she faces Patrick. Reilly projects wizened pragmatic moderation, and he's a familair and experienced old hand. He's a safe choice for moderates.

Healey only wins if she can capture enough moderate votes to overcome the GOP's ongoing minorty status. Those votes are not up for grabs unless she's running against Patrick, who is to the left of the state machine.

IMO, Reilly has been governor in waiting since Romney got elected. That's why the Globe is trying so hard to tear him down right now, they need a STORY to cover, so reilly needs to look vulnerable. It's the local media that will drive any closening, but it'll prove illusory.

Healey only wins if her opponent is seriously damaged in some way. Reilly, in all likelihood, would also defeat Healey handily in November in a two-way race. Healey's only chance in that case would be if Reilly is a highly ineffectual campaigner - a la Walter Mondale in 1984.

It's important to note that this is looking like a three-way race. Healey has virtually no chance to win that. The race is likely to be between Mihos and either Reilly or Patrick.