|
|
A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics |
|
January 30, 2006Understanding Risk: Chapter 1Museum visitor trips, breaks Chinese vases This story sort of cracks me up. It's one of those "how many licks does it take to get to the center of a tootsie pop" questions....how long do you have to leave several priceless vases on a 99.99% safe windowsill before the probability of them eventually getting smashed approaches 1? Posted by Brian Keegan at January 30, 2006 01:03 PMComments
O.K., Mr. Bean, this time it will come out of your salary. Posted by: Blue Jean at January 30, 2006 01:44 PMBasil! Posted by: PatHMV at January 30, 2006 02:25 PMIf a 99.99% (P=.9999 unharmed) safe shelf means that 0.01% of the number of times someone walks by, the vases on the shelf will get smashed (P=0.0001), you'll have about a 50/50 shot at them being smashed if about 7000 people are projected to walk by. You start getting really close to a 1 probability at less than 100,000 people. Posted by: WHQ at January 30, 2006 02:31 PMEggggscellent Smithers. Give that man a (Pabst) blue ribbon. This is an object lesson for everyone who engages in activities such as skydiving or motorcycle riding and take consolation from the low probability of an accident for ONE jump. Of course, I think the probability that such messages sink in rises with every videotape scene of a skydiving disaster. And before anyone calls me Prudent Priscilla, let me add that I am DYING to get another bike. Posted by: bk at January 30, 2006 03:03 PMHere's a good one. If you have 23 people in a room, there's a better than 50% chance that at least two of them have the same birthday. I know it's not quite the same thing, but I can't resist bringing it up when presented with the most minimal excuse to do so. Posted by: WHQ at January 30, 2006 03:12 PMAnd speaking of Pabst Blue Ribbon, I was at a Reverend Horton Heat concert at the House of Blues in an Atlantic City ca$ino last month. Upon arriving I ordered a couple drinks for the wife and me at the bar. The total was somewhere around $20. I immediately inquired about lower priced alternatives. As it turns out, there as a promo for PBR going on at a little table against the back wall. $3 a pop and free cheezy t-shirts to boot. I'm not sure how many PBRs I ended up drinking, but if there's some small probability of finding a mouse in a can of PBR, I may have been flirting with significantly probable rodent consumption by the end of the night. Posted by: WHQ at January 30, 2006 03:20 PMMy wife and I were in the The Museum of Guards rushed in from all directions. Luckily, the floor seemed more damaged than the panel and, as they say, no one was hurt. Posted by: Henry Woodbury at January 30, 2006 03:23 PMThe Chinese vase museum had a very well trained PR person, whose first comment was gratitude that the patron whose shoelace destroyed the irreplaceable vases was uninjured. Posted by: PatHMV at January 30, 2006 04:47 PMI woulda been very tempted to strangle him with the shoelace. Posted by: Tully at January 30, 2006 04:55 PMWhat I like is their proposal to glue all the pieces back together, no matter how tiny they are. Now there's optimism. Posted by: Blue Jean at January 30, 2006 10:34 PMA good antiquarian staff can do exactly that, so well it's tough to tell it was broken in the first place. But it could take 'em a year or more. Posted by: Tully at January 30, 2006 11:07 PMNow if only the king had had a good staff of antiquarians instead of just all of his horses and all of his men... Posted by: PatHMV at January 30, 2006 11:25 PMYou haven't lived in glorious slow-mo until you've seen a restorer pat themselves on the back for spending a week or more restoring two square inches of something. And then bragging about their "rapid" progress! Posted by: Tully at January 31, 2006 09:12 AMNow if only the king had had a good staff of antiquarians instead of just all of his horses and all of his men... LOL! I thought that was Humpty Dumpty, Pat. My bad. ;-) Tully, Believe me, I've followed the progress on the Sistine Chapel, not just the infestisimal, flake-by-flake chipping away of the old paint, but the mind numbing arguments about what color, shade and tint Michaelanglo "originally" used. It's possibly the only thing on earth that could make a bond hearing look exciting. Posted by: Blue Jean at January 31, 2006 06:46 PMPlease, don't mention bond hearings.... Posted by: Tully at January 31, 2006 07:22 PMLOL! Posted by: Blue Jean at January 31, 2006 08:43 PMGlad you enjoyed the Humpty Dumpty reference, Jean. It was definitely better than my earlier Fawlty Towers reference. Thanks to Tully for providing the straight line set-up for it. Now all this talk of bond hearings has me bushed... I'm going to bed. Posted by: PatHMV at January 31, 2006 10:47 PMOh, I laughed at that, Pat, but by the time I got back to replying, the moment had passed. What do you mean, you're going to bed? And miss the thrilling Democratic response????!!! ;-) Posted by: Blue Jean at January 31, 2006 10:52 PMNo, I saw the Democratic response... that's why I had to go to bed! Posted by: PatHMV at February 1, 2006 08:21 AMI never ever ever watch speeches I don't have to. Anyone's. Ever. The transcript will be up later, I can read an hour's worth in a few minutes, and life is TOO SHORT, ya know? Posted by: Tully at February 1, 2006 10:15 AMlol, Pat. Actually, that's a good idea, Tully. (In fact, it's the same way I used to keep up with the soaps.) Is there a speeches.com? Posted by: Blue Jean at February 2, 2006 09:36 PM |
Archives
March 2007
February 2007 January 2007 December 2006 November 2006 October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 July 2006 June 2006 May 2006 April 2006 March 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 April 2005 March 2005 February 2005 January 2005 February 2004 January 2004 December 2003 November 2003 October 2003 September 2003 August 2003 July 2003 June 2003 May 2003 April 2003
Recent Entries
Some Smart Surging
Democratic Disgrace Obama: Tastes Great or Less Filling Should United States Attorneys be Professionalized? Don't you dare change your mind! Erin Go Open Thread NCAA tournament thread Blog that Brouhaha to death, AMIIGAF! Why Communism Grew Big: WWI Mythology Part 1 of 3 (LONG) The Right Immigration Questions
|