Centerfield

Iran and the bomb (version 2.0)

There is are two more posts up at the armscontrolwonk.com on Iran's missile capabilities and destroying their reactors. But I thought I'd talk a bit more about making the bomb.

I've been thinking about the possibility that Iran might acquire nuclear weapons by means other than a home grow enrichment effort. There are several possibilities, acquire spent fuel rods, acquire refined material (U-235 or plutonium) or acquire a finished warhead. I use the word “acquire” because there are several possible ways of getting what they need. A gift could be presented to them, they could steal what they need, or they could purchase it.

During a convention I attended last year, a lecturer talked about efforts to stop black market trade in nuclear material. (The convention was about industrial health and safety, but homeland security is all the rage.) He had maps and graphs and databases (can't seem to remember what agency he was from). He also had a confession. There are so many sting operations going on in Eurasia that they keep bumping into each other. I left pretty confident that a successful criminal sale of fissile material was really unlikely.

But lets assume that you acquired a warhead. If it was a soviet era nuke, then its been lying around for a couple of decades. If you parked your car twenty years ago would you expect it to work today? At the very least the battery would be dead. I know that if I was designing a nuclear weapon I would use a special proprietary battery. One with characteristics not easily duplicated. I would then design the electronics to disable the device if any other battery was used. For that matter, if a criminal sold you a bomb how do you test if the arming codes are correct? Also what's the shelf life of the special version of plastic explosives used for A-bombs. If this is a soviet era nuke (an empire never know for quality) its been bounced from country to country in all sorts of conditions for a long time. Are you going to risk war with the USA on a device of questionable quality and reliability?

On the other hand that still leaves buying material or a gift from a friendly power. Either solution would work, since Libya revealed the existence of Chinese A-bomb plans floating round the black market. Such plans make creating a bomb easier, but not easy. After all I can buy plans on how to build a car, but that doesn't mean I can get it to run. And in this case “starting the car” means detonating plastic explosives. However, this shouldn't be beyond the capabilities of a nation. Still leaves a big question about whether your prototype will work. A screwup means you only caused as much damage as dirty bomb (which ain't a heck of a lot of damage). You also loose all that hard to acquire fissile material.

Another problem is finding a seller. Would you want to sell your crazy neighbor a gun? Thats quite a liability to incur. I can't see a nuclear powers letting someone else just buy their way into the club. Now as a political ploy we know its already been done. China gave Pakistan the bomb, but I bet they regret it about know. And either Pakistan or North Korea sold Uranium hexafluoride to Libya. Pakistan also was/is supposedly talking to Saudi Arabia about letting the Saudis under their nuclear umbrella. But neither Pakistani or North Korean regimes are just going to sell/give Iran bomb grade material or a warhead. The North Koreans are monsters, but so far, not suicidal monsters. They've spit in our eye, called us names and sold missiles, but they haven't reached for their gun. While the Pakistani's are our reluctant “allies” in the WOT.

If I had to put money on the best short term chance for Iran to joint the nuclear club it would be political upheaval in North Korea or Pakistan. When vicious regimes, staffed by greedy evil people collapse, every thing in the country is for sale. The soviet union and Iraq pretty much showed that.

This post is getting kind of long, but there are a whole lot of other details to think about. Of course I'm a scientist and pragmatist. I get paid to mind the details and make sure things work, while the Iranian president is completely nuts. On the other hand, every power mad psycho on the planet wants the bomb, but the nuclear club remains rather exclusive

(Interesting side note: Every time we overtly take a pot shot at an Al qaeda member in Pakistan, the political backlash increases the possibility that Iran gets the bomb. What and unpleasant thought!)