Centerfield

Karl Rove and the out going tide

Mr Rove came out of hiding this week to beat his favorite drum. Namely that the democrats are weak on national defense. The war time president theme, along with his new song “unethical behavior must have consequences”, may just win the day. The democrats are looking pretty comical, so the republicans only real enemy would appear to be themselves. With Old Bin giving them a timely elevated terror alert level, they may achieve another majority crop in the WOT field.

This tried and true strategy requires three things, a stable economy, gas prices staying under $3 and no more spectacular natural disaster disasters. It was hard not to notice that Bush's super low approval ratings coincided with the destruction of New Orleans and (more importantly in my mind) $3 gas.

Now it should come as no surprise, to those who read Centerfield, that I am a pessimist. So I think we are going to have an unstable economy, 3 dollar gas and a ton of Cat 5 hurricanes. I've even supplied a couple of links to support these ideas. The surprising part, is that I'm starting to see a glimmer that republicans and businessmen think so to.

Much like monitoring terrorist activity, the common man can't really know what's going on in the halls of power; all we can do is monitor the "chatter". How much activity is occurring and who's talking, is the only objective truth available.

I like to monitor the "chatter", especially with Google news and other news aggregators. They allow me access to the story of the day, but they also allow me to see who and how many news organizations are reporting and spinning a particular story.

I'm seeing some unusual activity in climate change and oil. Yes, it's true that I am currently obsessed with this topics, but isn't it more likely for someone obsessed with a topic to notice when subtle shifts occur?

I'm seeing strange apocalyptic articles using quotes by oil executives, billionaires and republicans about climate change and reducing fossil fuel use. I would expect such talk in the treehugging circles or in magazines like Wired or Discover, but not in Forbes and Fortune. This activity is hardly a tsunami, but it may be the start of something. It's true that fear sells (especially on a slow news day), but I think this is more that just greed based hype.

Everyone always says 9/11 changed everything. I'm starting to wonder is Katrina changed everything. At the moment I think the noise is just a kind of political insurance. If bad things happen this year, politicians and oil executives don't want to be held accountable. If nothing else those senate hearings that grilled the oil executives may have put the fear of god in them. On the other hand oil executives have access to data and analysis we don't, especially about remaining reserves in the Middle East.

Rumors of Saudi oil production having peaked are starting to appear. It's quite possible that what I'm see is an attempt to vaccinate the public to the some future revelation. Like having OPEC fess up to the fiction they have been pedaling about proven oil reserves.