Centerfield

The snakes have not licked my ears clean, but I will give it a shot nonetheless:

At the end of the year, we'll be in the same place politically as we are now. Both sides will have claimed success from the 2006 elections, but nothing will have really changed. The Senate could possibly be split 50-50 again. The hopes by Dem's that the Abramoff scandal would dwarf all previous scandals will be dashed. It will bring down a Senator or two, a handful of Representatives, but (as always) Washington will prove that they always take care of their own.

(Santorum will be gone.)

USC will be forgotten history and Florida will be contending for the national title.

Peyton Manning will (once again) prove that he can't win the big one.

That's all for now...

Alito is confirmed 53-47 in February, maybe March.

There will be several rounds of firings or forced retirments at the CIA, which will be followed by another leak of vital national security secrets by outraged bureaucrats fighting an open war with their elected bosses.

We will finally find out who told Novak (and Woodward) about Valerie Plame.

Scooter Libby will either be acquited at trial or will plead guilty to a very minor misdemeanor.

Tully's Law will continue to be proven accurate.

I will post feverishly for three months of the year only to once again disappear amidst political scandal rivaled only by that of a "gate."

Republicans will lose seats, but remain the majority.

At least one Republican will say something horribly racist and then try to justify it.

At least one Democrat will blow an easy victory by failing to be organized.

Hoping to get an early lead, John Kerry will announce his presidential campaign in the middle of 2006. Lacking support, he'll resign 3 months later. Nobody will have noticed either decision.

I predict that my shoe size will not change and that people will generally continue to eat lunch fairly regularly in 2006. I predict no hard evidence of anything will come from SETI in 2006. I predict drunkeness and clarinet playing at the upcoming Mardi Gras in spite of Katrina's aftermath. I predict that in 2006 any given possible outcome will occur, barring any other possible outcome that might prevent said given possible outcome. I predict an increase in the world's human population in 2006, barring a decrease or stasis. I predict a decrease in viewership of ABC's Monday Night Football in 2006 relative to 2005. I predict that Pat Morita will lose weight in 2006. I predict that Time Magazine's man of the year for 2006 will not be Michael Jackson. I have to eat lunch now. I'll have more later.

Republicans will lose 3-5 seats in the House. The Senate will stay very stable. Santorum will lose, Kean may win in NJ, Nelson may be upset in FL, but not by Harris. Arnold will go down in California to a yet-unknown challenger; someone who is personally wealthy and has the charisma of a Reagan but isn't a career politician. Possibly another Hollywood type. The fact that the Cali gubernatorial primary is being held on June 6, 2006 will lead to numerous websites by religious nuts claiming that the new Democratic Cali governor is the Beast of Revelations (after all, he or she will be nominated on 6/6/06). If I had to guess now, I'd take a shot in the dark and say it's Bill Maher (but I'm probably wrong).

While the GOP holds onto Washington, Democrats will storm through the governorships, taking most of the big coastal ones while breaking even with the GOP on the midwestern ones. PA, OH, WI, and IA will split between the two parties, while CA, MD, MA, and NY all go Dem. FL and CO are tossups. The Dems may have the majority of governorships after next year. They'll certainly be presiding over huge swaths of the population that are currently governed by Republicans.

All of this will convince the GOP that the coasts are lost and that the midwest needs to be consolidated for 2008. This will lead them to rethink Rudy and McCain, both of whom are highly popular in the upper midwest. Giuliani will still be leading in the polls of GOP primary voters and will have triangulated on social issues, talking federalism and states' rights.

• Alito will be confirmed with at least 58 votes.
• There will be no additional voluntary retirements from the Supreme Court.
• Texas will beat USC.
• The Colts will win the Super Bowl.
• Florida will win the NCAA basketball title.
• The Pistons will win the NBA Championship.
• The Cardinals will win the World Series.
• Democrats will gain 3 seats in the Senate.

Quagmire Alert: The United States will leave The United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) and will be replaced by troops from EU countries. Bottom line: Look for a new Balkan war by 2007 at the latest.

Well my predictions didn't pan out. But in the same vein as last year I'll predict that:

-Hillary Clinton in her pursuit of the middle will switch parties and declare for the Republican nomination in '08

-The Gang of 14 will encourage a filibuster of next year's budget bill

-Mayor Ray Nagin will hold more press conferences

-It will be revealed that the CIA has accessed Google's files and profiled anyone who did a search on "hijack", "plastic explosive" etc.

-Family members of Terry Schiavo will seek to have her body exhumed to find the "real reason" she died...oh wait a minute, that really happened.
Damn, its getting harder and harder to predict the absurd.

Happy New Year

I predict, that at the end of next year, everyone will sit back and say:
“Boy, I never thought that would happen”.

More specifically. I was playing with the ouija board and it said “This will be the last year for.......”
Then things got all garbled and full of static. I think I'll sign up for the new “always on” broadband ouija board. I hear the connection is much more reliable.

I pretty sure it had something to do with china, but signal quality was so bad I couldn't make out what it was saying.

Five of those predictions are utterly serious, but I'm not saying which five. Hey, I didn't get a single New Year's prediction wrong last year!

You didn't make any last year!
http://www.centristcoalition.com/blog/archives/001591.html

-Seahawks win the Super Bowl... That's right, I said it.

-The Sonics fire their head coach before the season is out... The Dallas Mavericks will win the NBA Championship.

-The Mariners will be better than everyone predicts.... (sigh) The Yankees will win the World Series.

-The UW Husky basketball team will make the men's final-four... Duke will win the National Championship.

-Notre Dame will be the number one football team in the country, heading to a national championship game with the Miami Hurricanes.

-McCain announces or at least shows solid interest, Guiliani doesn't leading to a Colin Powell like will he or won't he news frenzy in early 2007.

-Newt Gingrich gets fifteen minutes in the spotlight as a serious Presidential candidate. It will fade quickly and he in the end will choose not to run.

-Bush's approval rating hits 55% again.

-Patriot Act stalling and spy program opposition will backfire on the Democrats. By the 2006 elections Republican favorability ratings will be higher than the D's and the news story will center around their inability to find a message.

-Alito will be confirmed fairly handily, Stevens will retire or die, Bush will make his mark on the Court by appointing a 5-4 majority opposing Roe.

-The election will be a wash out as Republicans will lose Governorships, and some seats in the House, while tying or making minimal gains in the Senate... Ford(TN) and Casey(PA) will win, but so will Steele(MD) and Kennedy(MN).

-Karl Rove will no longer work for the President on January 1, 2007.... Karen Hughes will be placed in a more visible advisory roll... Rumsfeld will resign and his replacement will be a disappointment to centrists.

-A year from now, those who supported the Iraq war will look heroic... Tough talk from the left against Hillary will all but be a memory, and she will be the only serious contender left that will announce her candidacy, probably not until early 2007.

-A watered down version of Social Security and immigration reform are signed into law. Tax reform will be all but forgotten.

-Keegan and Tully find a politician they actually like.

-Ryan accuses me of a being a closeted right-wing Conservative.

-Jaded, Pat, and Simon will cause Centerfield to be shut down due to a an overload of legalize.

-Carla denounces centrism as a cult.

See how easy it is, Bob? ;-)

Okay, Tully and Matthew...you guys take the prize. Lol.

One prediction that I missed yesterday...illegal immigration will continue to become a larger issue, something that Tom Tancredo (sp?) will ride as he flirts with the idea of a 2008 Presidential campaign. 3rd Party and GOP candidates supporting a strigent crackdown on immigration will not be hard to spot in the 2006 Congressional Campaigns. None of the 3rd Parties will win, but some will come shockingly close.

Nothing will be done about illegal immigration.

- Another Supreme Court position will open up. Pat Robertson will claim credit. Bush will carefully review a list full of qualified women and minorities, and then pick another old white guy.

- The trial of Saddam Hussein will not end in 2006... or 2007, or '08, or...

- The US government will build a solid stone wall on the US-Mexican border. In a completely unrelated story, the Mexican government invests in catapults.

OK, here we go.

Alito is confirmed, with over 55 votes, sans filibuster.

The Dems pick up at least 3 Senate seats (Ford wins, Santorum loses, and another one)

DeLay is further disgraced.

Our troops will still be in Iraq, and with good progress continuing to be made, although with less troops.

And here's two crazy ones:

Dean is forced to resign as DNC chair.

Karl Rove is forced to do the same.

Yep, I think the idea that Karl Rove would be forced to resign as DNC chair is crazy, all right.... :-)

It's a fair bet that Dean will leave as DNC chair after the elections to be replaced by a more centrist/moderate figurehead leading into 2008, and a fair bet that a number of White House staffers will jump ship about the same time. The lame-duck period after the November off-year election is when staffers leave to cash in on their credentials & connections and start building a client base for lobbying, or cozy up to the next candidate. Their proteges hang around hoping to get picked up by the new admin, or at least to cover the rear and make their own resumes brighter.

So I don't find either of those predictions at all crazy, Rafique. Except maybe the word "forced."

Well, that depends...my crystal ball is cracked and dusty, but I'll give it a whirl, Earl. (No, Ron, I didn't mean you.)

-The Dems will gain seats in the midterms, which will be spun as a win for them. But they won't take over either house, which will be spun as a win for the GOP.

=McCain will come closer to announcing his run, but Guiliani will fade along with memories of 9/11,

-Hillary will win her Senate seat, which surprises no one, but then she will say she's not running for Prez, which surprises everyone.

-In the event that Hillary does announce she's running for Prez, then Falwell will endorse McCain, which will surprise everyone but me. To Falwell, Hillary is the Beast, while McCain is only a minor demon.

-I will be denounced as a cryto-Socialist by at least one poster, which is unfair, since I'm really more of a Parlor Pinko. ;-)

"Cassandra"... how about a new phrase, "neo-com"? The far-left equivalent of "neo-con".

Neeeo-com...Neo-com...Hmmm...I like it, Pat. Thanks! That's very clever. :-)

Oh, by the way, I forgot to add...

-The Supremes will rule 5-4 on the Texas redistricting case, citing the Voting Rights Act. Which way the 5 goes depends on how ticked off Anthony Kennedy still is about being passed over for Chief Justice.