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November 29, 2005

Who Would Win?

I'm not a fan of Juan Cole, but in this post raising an interesting question: Why can't the Iraqi majority of Shiites and Kurds beat the Sunni Arab miniority in a fair fight?


Readers and colleagues often ask me why a Shiite majority and the Kurdish Peshmergas couldn't just take care of the largely Sunni Arab guerrillas. The answer is that the Sunni Arabs were the officer corps and military intelligence, and the more experienced NCOs, and they know how to do things that the Shiites and Kurds don't know how to do. The Sunni Arabs were also the country's elite and have enormous cultural capital and managerial know-how. Sunni Arab advantages will decline over time, but they are there for this generation, and no one should underestimate the guerrilla leadership. If the Americans weren't around, all those 77 Hungarian T-72 tanks that the new Iraqi military now has would be in guerrilla hands so fast it would make your head spin.

Posted by rickheller at November 29, 2005 10:15 AM
Comments

Could it possibly be that the reason they can't beat them in a fair fight is because a civil war would be the LAST THING THEY NEED RIGHT NOW?

Seriously. The goal is reconciliation and resolution of conflict through political action and rule of law, not putting bullets in fellow citizens.

As if the Sunnis and Shiites don't have all the military advice, experience cadres, and advanced weapons technology they need, in the Coalition forces. If they wanted to make it a "fair" fight, the Sunnis would be most unfairly annihilated by now, and the battle for Iraq would be just getting started, instead of winding down.

Why do you think the Sunnis are participating more and more in the democratic process in Iraq? It's because they're getting the message loud and clear "you can't beat us; why not join us, instead?"

Posted by: stutefish at November 29, 2005 11:39 AM
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