A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics
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A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics | |
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November 25, 2005Centrist Republican Congressman RetiresCongressman Jim Kolbe is retiring from Congress... This is a great loss to those of us in the middle. Kolbe was a pioneer, a gay moderate Republican from Arizona, who often took heat from both the left and the right. Kolbe was a leader on free-trade issues and was one of the few, recently, who actually offered a plan of his own to reform the Social Security system rather than resorting to the typical rhetoric seen from both sides. In announcing his retirement the Congressman said: "I have both the energy and the enthusiasm for the job I do, and I am confident that I would win re-election if I chose to run ... [but] the mood on Capitol Hill is not a pleasant one. There's a divisiveness that I think we haven't seen in a long time and I worry about that. I like to think that I've been a moderating influence on that." One would hope that moderates would stick around and fight the current tide in Washington D.C., but it is understandable why those who have served so long would choose to hang it up. Speaker Hastert called for Kolbe to reconsider, one of the best things he has done in a long while. Personally, I would like to thank Congressman Kolbe for fighting the good fight, and I wish him well. Hat-tip to Ron. Posted by Mathew at November 25, 2005 02:23 PMComments
I'm very sad to see him go. For starters, he was the only out gay Republican in Congress. (Newsflash: He's not the only one...lol.) But, he wasn't a one issue candidate--in fact, the only reason his sexuality became and issue was because he usurped an attempt to "out" him by coming out himself. He was truly a moderate in every sense of the word--something that is becoming increasingly rare in both parties. Hopefully, his seat will be filled by another moderate--we can only hope. Posted by: AR at November 25, 2005 04:24 PMPBS' roundtable forum with Gwen Ifell was last night predicting that there will be an unusually high number of open seats in 2006. They mentioned that the number of seats in play (open and at risk) could be as high as seventy. I stand by my earlier prediction that the GOP will lose the House next year, and would welcome someone telling me that I'm being needlessly pessimistic. Posted by: Simon at November 26, 2005 06:09 PMYou are being needlessly pessimistic... With the way the seats have been witdrawn, the Republicans will hold the House... It is the Senate they have to worry about. Posted by: Mathew at November 26, 2005 09:47 PMBetter go review those numbers and boundaries before getting too pessimistic (or optimistic, depending on POV). Looks like a big status quo bore-a-thon. A change of control in the House would be amazing. Of about 30 seats considered competitive, 11 are held by Dems and 18-19 by the GOP. Dems need a 15 seat pick-up to swing the House. So they'd have to win all 11 of their competitive seats, and almost all of the 18-19 competitive GOP seats. Don't hold your breath--especially since the redistricting from the 2000 census made all the "safe" seats even safer. In the Senate, the GOP is defending 15 seats and the Dems are defending 18 (I'm counting Jeffords in the Dem column). Of the "open" seats of retiring members, 4 of the 5 are currently Dem seats. So to take the Senate they'd need to hold all of their 18 AND pick up 6 from the GOP. I'll happily wager $10 at even money that the GOP holds the House, Simon, and consider myself lucky to not offer odds. Would that make you feel better? Posted by: Tully at November 26, 2005 10:31 PMI'll feel better when Hugh Hewitt offers me that wager. Nobody ever went bankrupt ignoring Hewitt's advice. ;) I mean, you're right that it would take a monumental shift for the House to change hands (not to mention an opposition party that stood for something), but I can't shake the feeling that there is a rising tide of opinion that the GOP leadership has failed and become as corrupt as the guys they kicked out in '94. I'm not sure whether this is an optimistic or pessimistic viewpoint, even. The chances of term limits being passed become viable when a party gains a tenuous control of Congress, and decline thereafter. Posted by: Simon at November 27, 2005 08:34 PMI'll agree with Tully on the numbers, for now, but having Haskett almost defeat Schmidt in a fairly GOP district last year makes me think he's a tad optimistic. For instance if Schmidt is running against a democratic candidate as good as Haskett I think it will be a good possibility that she'll lose. There's also possibe fallout to consider from the Abramoff/Scanlan imbroglio that will at the very least target Rep. Ney. He's already been notified that he and some of his aides are under scrutiny. The timing is going to suck for the GOP because more of the case will be in the headlines during 2006. The recent cunningham case is more fodder for the talk shows. Count on the Democrats to put up these prosecutions on their commercials. Other pothioles for the Republicans - Wall Street Journal poll and others that found not only do the majority of people believe Bush was deceptive about pre-war intelligence but that a majority also distrust Bush on other issues of the day. GWB has majority approval only in Utah, Wyoming and Idaho. DeLay will be on trial. Plamegate hasn't left the nation's consciousness either and unless Libby cops a plea (and hopes for a pardon) the trial will certainly be headline news. On the upside look for the administration to bring home about 30,000 troops - during the summer.
Marcus; It may even get less moderate with Kolbe being replaced by someone more ideologically in tune with the Bush White House.Doubtful in this particular case. Kolbe's district is essentially the same won held by Mo Udall for all those years (encompasses liberal Tucson and more conservative and rural points south). Dems have a good shot at it. Posted by: c3 at November 30, 2005 12:17 PM |
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