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November 19, 2005

A Recipe For Ethnic Cleansing

This is starting to sound to me like Yugoslavia on the eve of ethnic cleansing:
Sectarian Hatred Pulls Apart Iraq's Mixed Towns - New York Times


Abu Noor's town had become so hostile to Shiites that his wife had not left the house in a month, his family could no longer go to the medical clinic and mortar shells had been lobbed at the houses of two of his religious leaders.
...
So when Abu Noor, a Shiite from Tarmiya, a heavily Sunni Arab town north of here, ran into an old friend, a Sunni who faced his own problems in a Shiite district in Baghdad, the two decided to switch houses. They even shared a moving van.

We have put this in motion, but don't blame it all on Americans

Some Iraqis, despite years of mass killings of Kurds and Shiites during Mr. Hussein's rule, still argue that sectarian divides did not exist in Iraq before the American invasion. But scratching just beneath the surface turns up hurt in most Shiite homes. Abu Noor recalls asking a high school teacher in Tarmiya the meaning of the word shroogi, a derogatory term for Shiite. Shiites tried to hide their last names. The military had a glass ceiling. These days, sectarian profiling on the part of the government, which is Shiite, runs in reverse, with some people buying fake national identity cards to hide last names that are obviously Sunni Arab.

Those who want American troops to be withdrawn immediately should consider what would happen if a full-scale civil war were to break out. Genocide would be likely. Given that Kurds and Shiites have been victims of genocide at the hands of Sunni Arabs, they won't stand for a rerun. They'll do anything they can to prevent their community from being massacred, including, I'm afraid, massacring the other side. I don't have any good answers. I'm just noting that the idea that Iraq will heal itself if only Americans leave is an extreme in wishful thinking.

Posted by rickheller at November 19, 2005 11:41 PM
Comments

I agree. It's not going to heal itself if we leave.
On the other hand, will it heal itself if stay?
If anyone can come up with option #3, your noble peace prize is waiting for you.

Defensetech.org has an interesting post on the subject. He went to Iraq and asked the soldiers what they though.

Posted by: Bob J Young at November 20, 2005 10:37 AM

This article was also fascinating to me, though in a slightly different way. I used it in my most recent post, entitled, Polarization. What struck me is that we have our own ethnic and religious polarization hurting our nation, as well.

Posted by: Carol Gee at November 20, 2005 10:45 AM

As does Europe.

Thanks for linking to that Samuelson column on polariztion in your post, Carol. I think that one should be required reading for everyone who wants to seriously discuss substantive politics (as compared to partisan political demonology).

Posted by: Tully at November 20, 2005 12:32 PM

Dang Samuelson link screwed up: it should be here if I didn't mess it up again.

Posted by: Tully at November 20, 2005 07:28 PM

By "putting this in motion" we interrupted the ongoing ethnic cleansing of the Hussein regime. If there are Iraqis denying sectarian divides then they're in deep denial indeed. Rick's fear is a very well-founded one. Lost in much of the political chatter about the insurgency and the war itself is that basic fact. The Ba'athists have very good reason to fear being a repressed minority, having been the repressing minority for so long. The Sunnis, by association, are in the same trap. Yet the majority of them are probably innocent of anything.

If we withdrew quickly, that civil war is more likely to occur. It may (smaller chance) happen no matter what we do. One of my greatest grouches about the political flame war is that what is lost in the shouting is the fate of the Iraqi people. They (including most of the Ba'athists/Sunnis) suffered many long years of as brutal a dictatorship as there can be. There's a lot of very justifiable anger built up there. It's going to go somewhere. How to redirect it, even make constructive use of it?

The upcoming trial of Saddam, following on the heels of the election, is as naked a piece of "social engineering" as I've ever seen. The idea being to give everyone their common scapegoat, and use that scapegoat to discharge that built-up anger while otherwise making a fresh start. Heavy psyops agitprop, nothing to be proud of. But given the alternatives I can't say it doesn't fit into the "lesser evil" category at worst--and I hope it works. If you're going to toss a scapegoat on the altar, pick a worthy one and get the most mileage out of it.

Posted by: Tully at November 20, 2005 08:07 PM

"What struck me is that we have our own ethnic and religious polarization hurting our nation, as well."

What polarization is that? What you are talking about doesn't even compare to that. I don't see ethnic groups going out and trying to eliminate the others even if they don't like each other. For the most part, I think we are doing a pretty good job of not having polarization. What you seem to be talking about is the divide between religious fundamentalists and secularists but I would hardly put that in the same category as ethnic cleansing. If you are talking about the divide between blacks and whites, rich and poor, pro-choice and pro-life, that certainly exists, but they are more political and social divides rather than actual ethnic divides.

Now, there used to be true ethnic divides in this country during the 20s and 30s, Poles and Jews, Italians and Irish, etc. They hated each other. For the most part, that doesn't exist anymore.

Posted by: Marc at November 22, 2005 10:43 AM

The only nations that don't have some polarization are ethnically homogenous. So they invent other reasons to polarize....

We handle it better than almost anywhere else.

Posted by: Tully at November 22, 2005 03:42 PM

The whole world is festering
With unhappy souls.
The French hate the Germans,
The Germans hate the Poles;
Italians hate Yugoslavs,
South Africans hate the Dutch,
And I don't like anybody very much!

The Kingston Trio's "Merry Minuet".

Posted by: PatHMV at November 23, 2005 04:17 PM
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