Centerfield

"I dunno about you, but I'm glued to my seat. Glued, I say!"

Why? Are you delusional enough to say that Ginsberg wasn't a 'life long Democrat'? That she isn't Liberal? That a conservative president would elect a conservative judge?

What exactly has you surprised?

I didn't say I was surprised. It's a comment about the increased likelihood of a battle royale. I wonder if tradesports has been giving odds on Alito's confirmation. If so, I'm guessing they just went down.

And I'm pretty sure that the chances of Alito's confirmation won't rest on anything related to Ginsburg's confirmation (although I'm certain others will join you in implying that it should.)

IMO, the chances of Alito's confirmation may well rest on the general public's comfort with how Alito is likely to effect abortion jurisprudence. Many have argued that Alito has the same right as other nominees to simply demur when asked pointed questions such as "if roe v. wade is challenged in a scotus case, will you uphold it or overturn it?"

Traditionally, judges have demurred upon the rationale that the possibility that they might be called upon to rule in such a case is precisely the reason why they MUST demur. And I'd say that's reasonably debatable.

However, I know that on the basis of stable public opinion polls over time that #1, about 60-65 percent of the people DON'T want Roe overturned, and #2 that a similar majority thinks that direct questions such as the one I mentioned above SHOULD be answered forthrightly, because the people have a right to know.

So my comment that I'm glued to my seats simply points out that this memo makes things very, very interesting, because it's positive proof that Alito indeed ascribes to the views that his opponents claimed he had, and which some of his supporters have said we couldn't be sure about and didn't matter. This memo, coupled with repeated demurrals from Alito on the matter, may well provide ample cover for moderate Republicans who support abortion rights to vote not to confirm Alito.

And you can argue the shoulds all you want. I'm talking about the real political battle, and how this info may affect how the battle unfolds.

BK,

Simple question, how many moderate republicans do you expect WANT to vote against Alito? My guess is few to none.

Even if protecting Roe vs Wade is a paramount issue for them (and I'm not sure it is), despite the fact they are elected officials they can still do basic math. Alito + Scalia + Thomas + Roberts (big ASSUMPTION there) still add upto only 4, which is still less then half of 9.

Do you really think Kennedy is going to be the one to go on record as overturning Roe vs Wade? Or that there is any doubt as to the votes of the other 4?

Congresscritters will avoid doing something that has personal consequences to them if at all possible. Voting against Alito, will have those consequences within thier own party.... it also won't change the vote total for upholding Roe vs Wade..... what it IS likely to do is change the outcome for some cases that involve SOME restrictions but not an outright ban (i.e. parental notification, partial birth abortions). Know what the poll numbers are on those?

Isn't there some football team or hockey team or basketball team that we can root for instead.

I just don't think abortion stirs up the soldiers as it has in years past. Yes, there are still rabid bands on each side of the issue, but does the greater public even really pay much attention to this?

The overwhelming majority of Americans will never have to personally deal with abortion-related decisions, so it will be quite difficult to convince them that one man is going to strip them of a right that really has no direct impact on them.

Do I think the special interest groups on both sides will go nuts? Absolutely. But, I doubt we'll see million woman marches to stop this nomination.

Cengel, I'm not claiming the die is cast here, just saying that this particular additional data point changes the prognostications.

I really have no clue how eager the mass of moderate republicans is either way. My guess, and that's all it is, is that there have to be a handful of them who'd love to deny bringing home the bacon for the socially conservative right if they can find political cover. But I don't have a headcount.

Indeed. I've been predicting/cautiously anticipating this battle for a while now. If this drama proceeds as it appears to be now, the final act will filled with scenes of political warfare the like of which we've never seen before.