Centerfield

I think she was in trouble anyway; it's clear the conservatives weren't buying her and her meetings weren't going well.

Now Bush gets to nominate a hard-core conservative with a base that will back him to the wall. I sense nuclear option coming.

Marc;
I'd propose another possibility. GW anger leading to a more "clearly qualified" non-"strict constructionist"

C3,

You're saying that GW would be so mad at the conservatives that he would go the opposite of what they want? And that he would then get a nominee through with the help of the Democrats? That's a delicious scenario IMO, but I think highly unlikely. At this point, the only real base of support he has are the social conservatives. And they don't care that much about things like Social Security. At this point, with the elections looming, I think it's too late for him to move to the middle and attract moderate Democrats. While the Democrats would probably be glad to confirm a non-conservative, at this point they smell blood, so I doubt it would do Bush any good in the long run. If he pisses the conservatives off at this point, I suspect the congressional Republicans would be like rats deserting a sinking ship.

ON the other hand, for a different perspective on the conservatives, see this article in The New Republic. http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=20051024&s=chait102405

He argues that the conservatives have been dupes of the administration that has gotten more from them than it has given.

Marc,
Why does he need the base? HE isn't going to be running for anything. More likely, as a pragmatic matter, that he'd want someone that the Senator would like -- their's are votes he might have some interest in over the next few years.
Besides which, what signs has he ever shown of accomodating those who have forced him to back off of something? One of his own has been hurt here. Loyalty and petulance suggest snubbing those who did so -- which was conservatives, not Democrats this time.

I think he needs the base because he has no one else. He's not going to get Democratic votes on Social Security or spending cuts--they smell blood. I think he is too pragmatic to cut bait from the his core. But I hope I'm wrong.

I agree 100% with Marc. Bush can cast his lot with conservatives or with no one. The die has long since been cast on this one.

Just because he's run for his last office does not mean political/electoral concerns can be dismissed. At this point, I think Bush is completely dead in the the water as far as substantive 2nd-term reforms are concerned. I think SS reform is dead until the next admin, although Bush could get something started. The only thing I think Bush could get traction on is fiscal balance.

But he can get traction with fiscal issues whether he has "the base" or not.

Frankly, right now the Congressional Republicans need Bush just as much as he needs them. He can (and probably will) get some slices in at the GOP'ers who rounded on him. Nightmare scenario for the right--Bush nominates a liberal with impeccable credentials (Larry Tribe, anyone?) long enough for them to realize who makes the nominations, and then pulls that nomination for someone else. I don't expect it, but it would be funny.

It's time for the pointless speculation to begin again! New thread coming....

LOL. That would be funny. As a Missourian, I'd put up Jack Danforth's name; he's respected by both sides, he's criticized the religious right, yet he was also one of Clarence Thomas's mentors. Wouldn't that mess with everybody's heads...