Centerfield

Strike probability maps have the 20% zone currently running from mid-Louisiana coast down to Corpus Christi. Still too far out to start predicting the 50%+ zone. The 10% "red" zone runs from the Mississippi/LA border down to Brownsville. (This is the probability for any given spot in the zone that the center will pass within 75 miles.)

It's got a cold-water barrier to cross that will weaken it some before landfall, but it's still gonna come in at least Cat 3 and maybe Cat 4, and it's BIG.

It can still go just about anywhere. Don't assume you're safe because you're not in Galveston. It jogged a bit south last night before turning more northerly in the wee hours. Anyone on the Gulf coast in that "red" zone (10% zone) should be getting the hell out about now, at least 15-20 miles inland and on high ground in solid shelter. Stay the hell out of 100-year flood zones and trailer parks. That applies to roughly half the state of Texas and a major chunk of Louisiana.

The rain from the northern outliers should be starting in New Orleans/Mississippi delta region and extending east through the entire Gulf Coast to Florida.

Posted by: Tully at September 22, 2005 10:05 AM

I just checked out the latest satellite pictures.
It's running north of the forecast points.
noaa

Posted by: Bob J Young at September 22, 2005 10:20 AM

It's running north of the forecast points.

Yep. Current tracking indicates landfall between Victoria/Matagorda and Houston at 30%+ probability, but it may dance around a good bit more over the next 36 hours and still fool everyone. The leading edge will be hitting somewhere around noon tomorrow, with eye landfall around midnight. From looking at the jetstream and pressure maps, folks in Dallas and Shreveport and Texarkana should get ready for one heckuva lot of rain this weekend. I was supposed to be in Dallas this weekend, but had to cancel to catch up from the last few weeks. I'm not regretting that now.

At least FEMA has plenty of ice ready to roll....classic bureaucratic behavior. Over-react under media criticism to show you're "doing something," then hang onto the result (at $$$ cost to the taxpayers) and shuffle it around, hoping you'll find a quick use for it and can justify it before anyone notices. For once, this may turn out to be a useful federal FUBAR.

This happened in a different way where I am (and dozens of other places) for Katrina, when everyone geared up locally for housing and handling of refugees at levels massively higher than actually needed. We were geared up for 1800, but we could've had a barbecue and fed everyone who actually showed with my gas grill and a WalMart run.

Posted by: Tully at September 22, 2005 10:58 AM

My thoughts and prayers are with our gulf coast friends.

Posted by: Daniel at September 22, 2005 12:54 PM

From this image of Hurricane Rita, I'm thinking "Hurricane Roger" would be more appropriate, or maybe "Hurricane Richard"; we could always shorten it to "Dick". (oops, "shorten" is a poor choice of words)

But Tully is right; it could go anywhere. ;-0

Posted by: Blue Jean at September 22, 2005 01:07 PM

When I checked last night only 1 out of 5 computer model predictions showed the hurricane hitting houston. Now I see today that all 5 of them show it hitting Houston, or slightly east.

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti2.asp

It's like a 100 mile wide F3 tornado, I think I'd run away for sure

Posted by: Susan at September 22, 2005 02:13 PM

I would like to preface my comment by admitting my reaction is entirely selfish, but don't hold that against me because my thoughts are all I can account for. So, yeah.

This hurricane business has caused an odd reaction wihtin me. I have very uncomfortable feelings of frustration, disappointment, and all the other warm fuzzy feelings the current administration is so good at eliciting from people, but this time I have no where to direct it, no way to really criticize anyone because I can't convince myself that had I been in power I would have done a better job. I have no alternative suggestions,no "better plan" or any form of advice. I am uncomfortable politically with this entire situation. I see how the hurricane relief money is being spent and I am incredibly reluctant to throw more money on the pile, only to watch it be thrown at something else and not used effectively.

I could ramble on and on trying to somehow identify the discomfort and confusing feelins I have about all this, but in such a public setting that might not be the best idea. So I will close with a plea to every single one of you, please stop making this political. PLEASE. I'm pretty sure that is the source of my discomfort. I'm also pretty sure that's the source of the inability to take care of the situation at hand. Thank you.

Posted by: Art at September 22, 2005 02:56 PM

The straight-line extrapolation has moved through a 30 degree arc northward from due west. Current landfall projection center between Houston and Beaumont--but don't take any bets.

On the bright side it's hit that cold-water zone in the central gulf and is weakening. Down to Cat 4, headed for Cat 3. Which is still more than enough storm to kick the hell out of the coast, though it is nice when the cars don't fly through the air. It doesn't need to be a hurricane at all to toss in a 15-20 foot surge and dump a foot of rain.

Posted by: Tully at September 22, 2005 02:59 PM

Yeah, Art, it's true there's a time for war and a time for peace but there's always time for bad puns and blue humor. ;-)

Posted by: Blue Jean at September 22, 2005 05:39 PM

Art: Sounds like you are experiencing symptoms similar to what happened to a lot of people after 9/11.
The constant barrage of news showing the graphic destruction. One horrific disaster after another. It get to be kind of overwhelming.

I don't know about the rest of you but I'm having trouble focusing and concentrating at work.

C3 would be better at addressing this than I am. (Is there a doctor in the house?)

PS: Art, feel free to ramble on in this thread if it helps. I always find that writing about it get it out of my system.

Posted by: Bob J Young at September 22, 2005 07:15 PM

6 inches will flood New Orleans

20 ft surge wipes out Galveston.

Posted by: Daniel at September 22, 2005 07:26 PM

As you've seen, the evacation is going very gluily. Houston is much bigger than NO, even if it's more organized after seeing its neighbors hit, with concomitently worse traffic when EVERYBODY hits the roads.

The Profesora said at least two of her students were coordinating with their families during class, helping them get out of Houston....

Lots of people are taking 9-10 hours to get out of Houston. I'm glad I don't live next to 290 anymore, since it's an Official Evacuation Route.

Posted by: Jon Kay at September 22, 2005 11:03 PM

Oh, and the Capital Metro bus drivers had planned a 1-day strike for today But, of course, they hadn't seen the hurricane coming, just the Austin City Limits festival this weekend.

Capmetro was grumbling today that the strike had made it impossible for Austin to send busses to help.

Posted by: Jon Kay at September 22, 2005 11:06 PM

I don't know about the rest of you but I'm having trouble focusing and concentrating at work. C3 would be better at addressing this than I am. (Is there a doctor in the house?)

If you live in southeastern Texas I can unequivocally say these feelings would be normal ;-)

Actually public psychology is a poorly studied area. I would say those feelings are normal but I'm not sure why and I'm not sure if its an ag old phenomenom or unique to our modern 24 hour new life. We are learning some interesting things including the possiblility that universal port-traumatic grief counselling may not be that good.

Anyway, I think its ok to feel unsettled about the hurricane; less a medical diagnosis and more a spiritual one.

Posted by: c3 at September 22, 2005 11:34 PM

Just heard that one of my brothers and his family managed to get a flight out to Lubbock.

whew!

Posted by: Marcus at September 23, 2005 12:18 AM

Here is an incredibly spiffy interactive map that overlays Rita and Katrina paths on oil infrastructure.

Map

Posted by: bob J Young at September 23, 2005 09:25 AM

Art and Bob,

I've got the same feelings going on. I wasn't as affected by the 9/11 images - mostly because I saw them as the same shots just at a different perspective. NO has me more upset due to the fact that they're showing an entire city destroyed.

I'm also more worried because I have a close friend who lives in Houston for grad. school. I've been unable to get in touch with her via cell phone since Wednesday and, even though I'm sure she's safe, there is that lingering doubt in the back of my head that just leaves me unsettled.

Let's all hope and pray that we don't have the same problem with the hospitals and nursing homes as we did with NO.

Posted by: CleverWes at September 23, 2005 10:19 AM

Amen.

We're currently looking at a center strike in the Port Arthur/Lake Charles region, almost on the TX/LA border. Looks to hit as a strong Cat 3. Flying roofs, instead of flying houses and cars and shrimp boats. A foot of rain or more in places, and a 15-20 foot storm surge.

Everybody within 100 miles of the Texas/Louisiana border should be the heck out of any mobile homes and 100-yr flood plains. Run away. Run uphill. If possible, hide in something made of bricks and concrete, not sticks. Even when the winds die down to "normal" inland-nasty there's still going to be a lot of flooding.

New Orleans is flooding again through a previous levee breach where a temporary dike has failed, but this time there's no one there in the low spots.

Posted by: Tully at September 23, 2005 12:56 PM