Centerfield

Being a person who believes in God, I can't help but smile sadistically and think "God is mad at the Republicans."

And why is God not mad at the Democrats (because as we all know, God is a Centrist)? Maybe he feels sorry for them.

(for those of you who have aboslutely no sense of humor, this post was purely in jest. Well, sort of. I was "kidding on the square." If you don't know what that means, read Al Franken's latest book. It's a great concept.)

Houston's in much better shape to face a hurricane than NOLA has ever been. None of it's below sea level! And the Texans actually follow their EP's--the Astrodome was able to accept all those Katrina refugees because, unlike NOLA, Houston officials actually followed their EP and stocked the 'dome for potential Galveston evacuees. Of course, three days out from landfall doesn't exactly give you high %age levels of confidence on storm track. Rita could end up anywhere from the Yucatan to Alabama. The 90% confidence-level landfall storm track extends from mid-Louisiana to northern Mexico. If it follows the current projected track I'll be in the "eye" next Monday! But if I had to make bets I'd stay away from Brownsville and Corpus this week.

Parts to the southeast of Houston along the shipping channel and bayous are subject to flash flooding and storm surge flooding, but not at nearly the depth levels that NOLA is. Residents of Clear Creek, Nassau Bay, Webster, etc., could get a bit wet, but unlike NOLA the water will actually drain away when the storm recedes. The Johnson Space Center people need to button down. I grew up on that coast in Nassau Bay--I remember the waters rising almost to the front door a few times during bad storms, but we never actually flooded the house.

Tropical Storm Allison stalled out directly over Houston in 2001, dumping huge amounts of rain over 36 hours and causing some extensive flooding. The worst was in the downtown area, which actually has extensive tunnels and basements, a rarity in the Gulf Coast. One woman drowned in an elevator trying to get her car out a basement parking garage.

Allison went on to dump tons more rain on NOLA and the entire southeastern US, causing another twenty or so deaths. NOLA flooded. Of course.

G-d bless them.

Tully: Thanks.
Nothing to do now but wait

Allison taught us alot of lessions, like moving generators out of basements for one. Evacuations have already started, counties south of Houston will be evacuated, with routes already published. Schools will start closing tomorrow and be closed til Friday. Katrina has everybody here on edge and will help convince those that might not have evacuated to go ahead and do it. Water, batteries, weather radios and plywood is already in short supply...

The probability that people in the path of a projected cat4 hurricane will take it seriously has to be at an all high, doesn't it.

Let's face it, part of the story on hurricanes is people's attitudes in response to them, and past near misses tend to embolden people or make them cavalier about assessing risk. That's not so likely to be arisk in Katrina's aftermath. It's a bit gruesome to think it, but large-scale tragedies do have these sorts of dividends.

Best of luck and hopeful prayers to all in Rita's path. Stay strong, and stay smart.

"God did not give us a spirit of fear, but of power, of love, and of a sound mind." - 2 Timothy 1:7

It was the basement-generator thing that made MD Anderson such a mess, wasn't it?

Rita is currently low-end Cat4, with a 4-6 foot storm surge. The 90% landfall projection cone has shifted very slightly to the south. Current center-track is between Corpus Christi and Galveston, pretty much around Victoria and the barrier islands of Matagorda.

Three days out from landfall, it could still turn and go almost anywhere in a 120 degree arc. But NOLA is looking safer.

I could use some advice from those of you in Tornado Alley. Living in Austin, we're mostly safe from hurricanes - mostly, the worst that happens is moderate winds, power outages, low water crossings flooding, and I-35 clogged with people fleeing the storm.

However, I noticed during Katrina, on Brendan Loy's blog, that hurricanes can spawn tornadoes. Now, I could use some advice on what to do to prepare for those. We have just one room without facing glass, a big closet under the stairs. Should we be more afraid of the glass or of the stairs collapsing? Should we be storing some emergency supplies in said closet?

Any thoughts on what kinds of supplies we should have on-hand?

Standard emergency supplies: Three days for everyone of non-perishable food, water, and any required meds (don't forget a can opener and spoons). First aid kit. Radio and spare batteries. Flashlight and spare batteries--some of the little flourescent camp lights can run 24 hours on 2 AA's. If you have more than one cell phone, forward the others to the primary, then turn off the spares and save the batteries. If they all use the same batteries you're set for quite a while. A box or two of baby wipes--they have SO many practical uses! The most-often forgotten item--toilet paper. Sealed in a ziploc. Oh yeah, assorted ziplocs are great things to have on general principle.

You can put such a kit together for a family of four at the local Dollar Tree or Big Lots for $50 or less. And you can always eat the food and drink the bottled water and rotate in new stuff.

If a tornado is actually coming at you, duck into that closet. The interior framing is a heckuva lot more likely to stand than the roof or windows are likely to stay put, and stairs are usually boxed in by load-bearing supports. If one isn't heading your way you might as well stay comfortable, even if it's in the dark. Cheap trick for windows--blanket or curtains over room side of the glass, attach it somehow at the bottom. Won't keep windows from blowing in but does keep the glass from spraying the room at velocity, which is the big injury worry anyway.

Pretty much what you should have around anyway for those typical Texas thunderstorms, which is about what it'll be by the time it gets to Austin. Except it'll last a lot longer, of course, being so much bigger.

I-35 clogged with people fleeing the storm

How do you tell the difference between that and the normal Austin rush hour? ;-)

"PS: On a more political note, the current path is for Rita to pass over Crawford Texas. Karma?"

This is about as assinine as saying that 'Katrina caused the destruction in New Orleans because of the 'sinful lifestyles if the inhabitants'.... sounded ridiculous then and it still sounds ridiculous.

Jon:

Living in the northern part of tornado alley and having experienced one and seen a handful of others touch ground, I would fear the glass, and head under the stairs if that was my only refuge. The deadliest element from a tornado comes from the force of objects being hurled by the tornado.

In fact if the closet under your stairs has a chest or dresser in it, then if your stairs do collapse, the dresser will catch it, and if you are curled in a ball on the floor next to the dresser, it probably won't even touch you and you likely will not get injured from the stairs collapsing.

However, I have seen good results (and of course fatal ones, too, nothing can protect 100% against a tornado) in interior bathrooms, especially those with bathtubs or shower enclosures. I have heard people survive tornados by grabbing a mattress from their bed, and place it over their family huddled in a bathtub.

The basic key to surviving a tornado, is planning ahead. It is good that you are thinking ahead of time what to do in the event of a tornado. Gather emergency supplies and tools, like flashlights, battery powered or crank weather radio, blankets, water and food, and a copy of your personal ID (and IDs for your family) in a bag or backpack that you can easily and quickly grab to go to your tornado safe room in your house or out the door if you need to quickly evacuate.

Plan your tornado safe room, and tell a relative or someone close to you (if they are firefighters, even better), who would look for you after a tragic event where that safe room is (also tell someone who lives further away, too, in case your closer relative also is stuck in the aftermath of a tornado). This is a good idea, that after the tornado, rescuers have some sort of an idea where to find you in the wreckage.

Consider the location of your safe room. You want a room without windows on the lowest level of your home, preferrably an interior room. Know what you will do to cover yourself and protect from the flying debris. If there is a sofa in the room, see if you can easily turn it upside down and huddle inside (you may need to take the cushions off first, experiment before you have to do this during the tornado). A sturdy table with strong legs to duck under is good for protecting against collapses (pool table would function very well in this capacity). Also, don't seek refuge in a room that has heavy appliances or furniture overhead on the upper floor, as these would like come crashing down if the house where to collapse.

Hope these few suggestions will help you and your family prepare for a possible tornado. Just remember, during any emergency the best way to stay safe is to keep a level head and focused on survival.

Rita is not following the script. Yesterday's projections had her already north of 25th latitude by now, and she persists in moving darn near due west and staying south of the line. In fact, the latest imagery has her actually turning a touch to the south, which is odd.

Current projections still calling for landfall around the Matagorda barrier islands, near Victoria, just north of Port Aransas.

Thanks for all the advice! That's very helpful.

I honestly doubt we have the transportation infrastructure to evacuate 4+ million people. They are evacuating in phases/zones, starting with those closest to the coast going first. Traffic is a nightmare already, and I doubt most in Houston have even started packing for a trip yet...

Rita's started to turn to the north during the night. Still projected to hit south of Galveston.