Centerfield

I'll take the challenge:
1)Agree. The "10,000 dead" after the collapse of the Twin Towers is still too fresh in my mind
2)Agree and like the World Series after 9/11 it will take on a "courageous" veneer. N.O. has more festivals than days in the year, you think a little hurricane is going to stop them from having "the big one"
3)Disagree. Needed or not it would look bad to pull out that soon. This time the feds will wait for specific requests from the State.
4)Agree. And with the next hurricane/flood more people WILL NOT LEAVE because now they'll be prepared with better supplies. Look at the number of folks who right now want to live in what is in essense a cesspool... "What smell?"
5)Not sure. Refugees tend to stay put, especially those that had little at their home of origin. Maybe the bigger question is whether they'll be forced to go back.
6)Of course.
7) There's a market price for MRE's?

A few other predictions
1) We'll see a thoughtful discussion within the Black community about the "rascist" issues raised.
2) We'll hear more from Louisiana residents questioning their local and state officials. Right now the noise about the feds overwhelms everything
3) Cafe Du Monde will be serving Biegnets (?sp) and Coffee within the month
4) The Saints and Hornets will still suck.

Posted by: C3 at September 9, 2005 05:20 PM

Sounds about right. My add'l predictions:
1)10-30% will have to be condemned.
2) The condemned parts, and the condemned parts only, will get lifted to sea level.
3) All levees will be upgraded to Cat 5.
4) Some really hackish way will be found to allow the foreland to move towards slowly reforming.

Posted by: Jon Kay at September 9, 2005 07:01 PM

Who'd eat this if they didn't have to?

Posted by: Blue Jean at September 9, 2005 07:18 PM

Jean;
Good question (and we all know the answer). I've read several articles on the "progress" of food for GI's. MRE's are really a step forward from "C rations" and the like but its still not great. The engineering challenges behind it are VERY interesting: "How do you make hundreds of thousands of nutritious meals that can stand a long shelf life and then harsh conditions with extremes of temperature and that's easy to prepare and somewhat edible"

And even at $50/case (how many are in a case anyway) I bet is a "deal".

Posted by: c3 at September 10, 2005 02:47 PM

I was all ready to buy into the “everything returning to normal theme” the news is spinning until I tried to buy some gas today. I had to go to four stations before I found one that had gas. The little SOB's aren't putting up any signs showing they are out. Only after you drive right up to the pump can you see that a plastic bag is tied over the nozzles. I guess they want to try an generate some traffic for the mini-mart side of the house.

Also Sam's club has empty areas in their food section. Some of the items I normally buy there are just gone (canned fruits and vegetables).

1) If one drunk girl flashes one drunk guy for a set of beads, then Mardi Gras has occurred.
5) I don't think so. I've cleaned up after this kind of flooding. Whole sections of the town had to be bull dozed when the river went down. Fema had to secure dry land and establish a mobile home park for the refugees. Its going to be interesting to see if the mobile home industry can supply FEMA's needs. My dad's in Pennsylvania and the state government has suspended the restriction on moving mobile homes on state highways. No lead and chase vehicles required, and driving them at night is now allowed.

PS: I've eaten MRE's.
They aren't that bad if you use the little heater packs. (They have high fat content to give maximum calories to the users). Other than that they taste just like canned food. Really its just canned food in an aluminum/plastic pouch that can be dropped out of an aircraft.

When you make up that 72 hour survival backpack (which I know you all have :-} ) they make a good addition. They are lighter than canned food and more rugged, and they last for years. Although I prefer the Mountainhouse freeze dried meals. Some of those are quite yummy.

PPS: The Hurricane season isn't over yet!

Posted by: Bob J Young at September 10, 2005 05:23 PM

LOL, you guys. The invention of MRE's is certainly a fascinating story. (And here I thought by 2005, we'd be eating our meals in pills. ;-)

Speaking of New Orleans and the miracle of technology, here's another hero story on the power of radio.

Posted by: Blue Jean at September 10, 2005 08:06 PM

here's my predictions
A lot of the billions supposedly for relief will go the way reconstruction money for Iraq did...in some black hole where little gets done.

Large areas where the poor formerly lived will end up as golf courses, various and sundry generic developments and shopping centers, the likes of which you can find in Milpitas, California and Bend, Oregon, now a ruined wasteland of strip malls and shopping centers..

Reconstruction will be slow - significant numbers of people will not come back for months or even years.

City infrastructure will be slow in rebuilding. You'll see the essentials rebuilt rather quickly but many of the billions that can go to help that city will be siphoned off and you'll find a rather significant slowdown once about 2/3's of the work gets done.

On the bright side I think that the American public will still be helping out in significant ways. Schools will get lots of supplies donated to them as will other children oriented infrastructure. I have a bunch of books all ready - they just need a destination.

You'll see a major effort at wetlands restoration.
This is something that could have helped reduce overall water levels. That will be a multi decade project.

Habitat for Humanity will make the headlines - I'm sending them a check. They'll be helping to build low-income housing. IF I had the time I'd donate my labor too. I still have my carpentry tools.

On the political fallout...Among the minority and poor populations of the South I think the GOP suffered significant political damage. You can't beat Geraldo literally going hysterical over the federal response to Katrina...on Fox...hooo boy that must of set off some pretty interesting discussions in the producers' offices. This is going to be in the news a lot - a constant reminder of what went wrong. The GOP's attempts to court black voters will not bear significant fruit, in fact I predict an overall increase in the proportion of blacks who vote democratic over the GOP. KAtrina has given Democrats the ability to ridicule GOP claims that they are better at protecting America during the midterm elections. They'll make a lot of hay out of FEMA wasn't broken, why did the Bush administration screw it up so badly. There will be a lot of resonance. Katrina scared America shitless. The GOP may lose a few more seats in the House although I think the Senate is still safe for them.
Trent Lott must be having the cerebral equivalent of the dry heaves. In part he's responsible for the re-architectured FEMA and its response. His political opposition will hammer that point home. At the same time I bet he's getting an earful of complaints from constituents about the federal response. Because he's got a lot of clout I predict that the beneficence of Federal largesse will fall disproportionally on Mississippi.
I wonder what his reaction was when Bush was talking about Lott's new porch.....

Estate tax cuts are DOA.

Extension of Bush tax cuts on the critical list.
They will deservedly die IF Democrats harp on the numbers - 5 billion/month on Iraq, 50 to 100 billion to deal with Katrina, the horribly assembled frankenstein of a prescription drug benefit, massive deficits in previous years.
All they have to do is ask America the question - how do we pay our bills? Then maybe the one percent of us who think we need to cut spending and raise taxes to get our financial house in order will have some company. (yes that is one percent according to a poll I heard a few months ago...)
Trickle down economics took a little hit too - Katrina opened up the veil on the American poor -who live in worse conditions than your average Cuban. TE has not elevated the working poor at all, in fact I bet a major mid-term Dem talking point will be the increased numbers of those in poverty.

we live in interesting times....for a political junkie like me I guess this is heroin.

Posted by: Marcus at September 12, 2005 03:16 AM

Katrina opened up the veil on the American poor -who live in worse conditions than your average Cuban.

Really? How did it do that?

I'm not disputing the truth of your assertion, which I don't have sufficient information to evaluate - but how did Katrina "open up the veil"?

Posted by: David Fleck at September 12, 2005 07:56 AM

1. The population of Baton Rouge will be significantly and permanently larger.

2. The Saints will play with passion and not suck.

Posted by: WHQ at September 12, 2005 09:43 AM

David,

The per capita GDP of Cuba is a hair under $3,000. The per capita income in Orleans Parish is $17,250 (2000 census). They're somewhat different descriptors, but I'm sure you get the idea.

Posted by: Tully at September 12, 2005 11:47 AM

David

There's always a veil over the poor. They are there but not there in the American consciousness. You can't totally hide them as there are too many of them...11.7 million and rising. It's all showmanship. The veil gets lifted once in a while during poltiical campaigns. Cries of outrage at their plight and all and then when the campaigns are over it's back in the box. Please refer to the last presidential campaign - the working poor got little attention - the only part of the debate that surrounded them dealt with their inability to pay for health insurance. More attention was devoted to Swift boat veterans, foregn wives and the like. No big debate about beefing up education opportunities in the wake of cash starved states hiking college tuition. On top of this, the past few years Republicans have been gearing up to drastically cut programs that help the poor with little public outcry - which incidently ticks me off to no end as a Democrat. Face it, when it comes to most things in American life, the working poor are on the fringes of the radar screen. They have little political power because they don't have deep pockets like Haliburton, Pfizer and GM. For many of those in political power in this country, whatever party, they are often out of sight and blessedly out of mind.

So here comes Katrina and to be hyperbolic about it, Americans, along with the rest of the world, were watching fellow citizens live and die in absolute squalor. And can you imagine what kind of wake up call to the world this was? I think the images out of New Orleans shocked them. The ineptitude shocked them as well. We are not Superman after all and our Kryptonite is political patronage and politics as usual.
Yes, a lot of people know about the poor in this country but the TV coverage made sure you REALLY knew it. It's "centerfield" so to speak but only for now. Until the next headlines grab your attention and you can comfortably look away knowing that you were righteously outraged but now something else that's important has come up and you turn your attention towards it. Like maybe a missing teenager in Aruba. Or a Supreme Court nominee.

My Cuban remark reflects the reality that while your average Cuban's annual income may be very low, all the children have their vaccinations, everyone has healthcare. No they don't always get enough to eat. Yes their education level is about the same (not the mythical 97%literacy rate - that was basic Castro propaganda as exposed by testing the last large batch of Cuban refugees) Yes they have slums. No they don't have cars, X-boxes and lots of TV's and the like. But then again they don't live in squalor in a sea of plenty that stares them in the face every day of their lives.
There's a mental toll in that.

BTW, do people know that a lot of the poor evacs, black and white, and MOST of whom are employed, are getting some of the best health care they've had in years? That some of the kids are getting their first vaccinations? And that when this is over they'll go back to infrequent doctor's visits, deciding between food and health care and all those other wonderful things that 6 dollars an hour gets you.

yeah, I know, hyperbole,anger... but my daughter who is 12 and a lot more aware of current events than others her age looks at this situation and feels anger herself at those who should have been more on the ball helping those in Louisiana and Mississippi. Idiots who would waste energy over gay marriage than fix the real problems.
And I look at her and think this is the world she's ending up with? A decimated government as the best and brightest leave FEMA, Treasury, EPA, FDA ,etc. replaced by the Michael Brownes of this world?? Along with 9 trillion dollars in debt by the time our pet goat leaves office?

Well at least Barry Bonds is back in the line up tonight. That should lower my blood pressure a little.

Posted by: Marcus at September 12, 2005 01:53 PM

Of course, most Americans are not poor, whereas almost all Cubans are. Poverty does not hide from Cubans, they all live in it. Most Americans do not have problems getting enough to eat, not even the poor. Almost all Cubans do. It's not easy to find an obese Cuban in Cuba.

Cuba has reasonably decent basic health care for all. It comes at an economic cost, of course. Cuba has a good education system--and more engineers driving cabs and tilling fields than anywhere else in the world. They also have about THE finest hurricane disaster preparation system in the entire world, and about the lowest hurricane fatality rate. That has something to do with the mandatory disaster classes for children all through school, the mandatory annual courses for all adults, the mandatory annual drills, the mandatory storm assignments, etc.

Well, dictatorships do have some advantages in that regard....

Posted by: Tully at September 12, 2005 04:56 PM

Marcus;
Headline 11/20/02 WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Capping months of debate, the Senate on Tuesday approved 90-9 a bill that would create a Department of Homeland Security -- a massive reorganization of the federal government sparked by the devastating September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
And with such an overwhelming vote for the creation of the DHS you somehow felt the only guy who'll get flack is Trent Lott? Except for Fritz Hollings, every Senator from the South voted for it (therefore presumably both Senators from La, both from Ala, both from Miss.)(IMHO this is the greater lesson in unintended consequences.)

do people know that a lot of the poor evacs, black and white, and MOST of whom are employed, are getting some of the best health care they've had in years? That some of the kids are getting their first vaccinations? And that when this is over they'll go back to infrequent doctor's visits, deciding between food and health care and all those other wonderful things that 6 dollars an hour gets you.

Now take a breath for a minute and then please clarify which children are getting their "first vaccinations". I've worked on a couple of state vaccination task forces and I know the this is one of the few health items that seems to progress regardless of the party in control. The federal, state and local bureacracy is very good at pursuing this. We can talk about healthcare in a lot of areas but I'd have a hard time saying a Hurricane is good for vaccination compliance.

I'm glad you've identified your post as hyperbole. Outrage is fine but you need more to get effective programs through. And please don't suggest that only Democrats are concerned for the poor. I've worked with the poor for most of my career. I would agree they often don't get a lot of attention. At the same time I'm most interested in programs for the poor that work. And, as much as I don't like to admit it, I have to acknowledge that the majority of Americans are not poor and are therefore disinclined to vote for programs to benefit the poor.

Posted by: C3 at September 12, 2005 05:00 PM

Chris, I wish I'd thought to point out that immunizations for poor children can be had free in most places (including Louisiana). And are required to enter school in all fifty states. The #1 reason for failure to vaccinate by school age is religious objections. When I was down in Texas this summer there were free vaccination drives going on to make sure that the children of illegals had all their shots before going to school--but any child could go and get the shots for free. As you note, immunization compliance is not directly linked to income.

Yet Orleans Parish has (had) the lowest immunization rates in the nation, despite intense efforts by public health authorities there. As for evacuees getting the best health care they've ever had, there are at least two major teaching hospitals in NOLA devoted entirely to indigent care. Teaching hospitals get some of the best and most dedicated doctors, ones more concerned with practicing good medicine than boosting their fees (they're on salary). Though they're definitely crowded.

Of course, exploring the reasons for some of the deplorable conditions in New Orleans, conditions which have prevailed for many long decades, is politically incorrect. Instead we are supposed to feel a collective shame that the conditions exist at all, and throw more money into hallowed programs, many of which simply don't work. I do extensive work with poor and underserved populations, so I know exactly what you mean about programs that work.

I'm not knocking Marcus' concern. I feel much the same thing. But what do we have for solutions that are actually workable? Oh, hell, it's time to start another health care thread....

Posted by: Tully at September 12, 2005 05:24 PM

They are there but not there in the American consciousness...the working poor got little attention - the only part of the debate that surrounded them dealt with their inability to pay for health insurance.

I can't disagree that the impoverished of New Orleans that ended up stranded at the Superdome and the Convention Center got far more prime airtime than the poor generally seem to — though my acquaintance with popular culture is pretty meager these days. The last television show that I can recall that dealt with the lives of the poor was Good Times (pre-J.J.). So, in that sense I agree; the happy shiny young people of cable news discovered that hey! There are poor people in this country! I'm not sure how shocking this should be for those paying attention — it hasn't been that long since welfare reform was a hot topic, for example. But:

...Americans, along with the rest of the world, were watching fellow citizens live and die in absolute squalor.

Ok, here's where I think I see difficulties. True, we "watch[ed] ellow citizens live and die in absolute squalor." Shameful as this whole debacle is, it doesn't tell me anything about the daily lives of the urban poor — it just tells me what happens when you cram too many people into too small a space without sufficient water, food, or planning. What relevance does the Superdome have to the daily lives of poor people in this country? What do I, or anyone else, know about the poor now that I didn't know before? That's where I guess I'm not seeing any veils lifting.

Posted by: David Fleck at September 12, 2005 10:14 PM

Oh..Oh..Oh!!! I forgot the most important prediction (and I'm not trying to be partisan)
We will soon lose sight of the boundary between what was caused by the delay in the rescue/recovery effort and what what was caused by the hurricane, itself.

Posted by: c3 at September 13, 2005 12:00 AM

This is probably a pretty obvious prediction, but here goes: The rebuilt New Orleans will be substantially different in many ways. With large sums of money involved and large projects eventually planned and carried out, it seems likely that big investors will be able to crowd out smaller entrepreneurs. The new NOLA will be more franchised, more corporate, and feel less authentic to the old-timers. Tourists may not notice, but it may well feel much more Disneylandish than it used to. Not to make too big a deal of it, it will be a matter of degree moreso than than an overt sea change for most people.

But its inevitbale that modern rebuilding with planning will hvae a far less organic feel than the old original place that evolved over time. I am not saying this is a bad thing or a good thing. It will be different, and this will be good in some ways (designs built with flood control, evac, and withstanding of big storms in mind), and less good in others.

Posted by: bk at September 13, 2005 09:33 AM

We will soon lose sight of the boundary between what was caused by the delay in the rescue/recovery effort and what what was caused by the hurricane, itself.

Especially with so many working so hard to ignore or erase the distinction from day one.

...it just tells me what happens when you cram too many people into too small a space without sufficient water, food, or planning...

Truly. What would happen if we put 25K egotistical corporate executives in the Superdome in those conditions?

(I'd almost pay to see that.)

Posted by: Tully at September 13, 2005 10:08 AM

What would happen if we put 25K egotistical corporate executives in the Superdome in those conditions?

I think you call it the Republican National Convention! ;-) Sorry Tully but when you lob softballs... Posted by: c3 at September 13, 2005 03:22 PM

LOL. Naw, they feed 'em at the RNC. And sedate 'em with liquor, too.

Posted by: Tully at September 13, 2005 03:57 PM

Naw, they feed 'em at the RNC

MRE's? Posted by: c3 at September 14, 2005 01:15 PM

I'm not sure, Chris. Let's give it a try....with one MRE and one liter of water a day for the attendees, and no bathrooms.

Posted by: Tully at September 14, 2005 04:18 PM

Can they keep their blackberry's?

Posted by: c3 at September 14, 2005 06:55 PM

LOL. Sure, but we're cutting off the WiFi and putting up cell jammers.

Posted by: Tully at September 14, 2005 07:08 PM