A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics
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A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics | |
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September 09, 2005Losing the fight for nonpartisan redistricting in CaliforniaThe latest comprehensive poll from California shows that Proposition 77, Governor Schwarzenegger's initiative to shift legislative redistricting from the legislature to a nonpartisan panel of retired judges, is failing badly. 46% of voters polled oppose the initiative already, with 32% supporting and 22% undecided. But the potentially devastating numbers are buried within the poll report: 49% of independent voters oppose the initiative. (Granted, the report does indicate that independent voters were underrepresented in the poll.) Conventional wisdom suggests that independent voters and centrists--those who tend to lose, rather than benefit, from redistricting by the party establishment, regardless of which party is in control--should most support nonpartisan, nonlegislative redistricting. So are California's independent voters reacting to the details of this particular remedial measure, or is there some consideration weighing against nonpartisan, nonlegislative redistrict for independent voters that the conventional wisdom neglects? Posted by The Jaded JD at September 9, 2005 11:26 AMComments
The problem with these polls is that the CA efforts have become more than anything a reflection of the Governor than actual measurements of support for the efforts in question. Additionally, Schwarzenegger's proposal - containing as it does a mid-decade redistricting process - has been portrayed (clearly with some effect) as not, in fact, nonpartisan, but just a back-door way to change control from Dem to GOP. I'd guess that's some of why support's at such a low level there, particularly among independents. It'll be interesting to see where things go over the course of the next little couple months with it. Posted by: JBD at September 9, 2005 12:04 PMI really wish such polls would include some sort of check on whether/how well respondents understand the issue and the propsed changes. My sense is that many people answer such polls with a biasa towards a default of NO when they don't perceive or care about the problem that the referendum's supporters are tring to address. My guess is that most people view election reform as a waste of time because we'll get the same sorts of "leaders' regadless of the process, so why waste time and money hoping that THIS time we'll make things better. IOW, it's a reflection of voter cynicism. Posted by: bk at September 9, 2005 12:14 PMMy guess is there are a number of reasons including that the more politically aware Democrats in California are looking at what happened in Texas and frankly want none of it. There's the way the petitions were presented to the public then teh actual proposition written up with some significant changes. Sneaky. I hate sneaky. The other part is the realization by many democrats that voted for Arnold is that he's not only very partisan but is even a worse donation whore than Gray Davis. So any thing he touches is tainted. Finally the redistricting would be drawn up by retired judges. Wealthy, retired judges who are usually republican. Yeah right find a democrat that trusts a judge to decide elections after what happened in 2000. Also said judges are not accountable to anyone. Finally here's what I think is a good point...judges should never be dragged into politics. Posted by: Marcus at September 9, 2005 09:56 PMArnold's handlers say John McLaughlin and Mike Murphy find a different result for Prop. 77. Go here: http://www.joinarnold.com/atf/cf/%7BA16CE0B9-EC34-4B9E-A807-A317BEC16F5F%7D/campaign%20update%209%209%2005.htm Posted by: Mathew at September 10, 2005 03:44 PM |
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