Centerfield

Certain Trumpets

This Pew Survey on religion and partisan politics shows some concerned about the religiousness of the Republican Party and the secularness of the Democratic Party. There is no apparent advantage to either side; just a cleavage.

There's also new data on beliefs in evolution, with 42% of repondents creationist, 48% supporting evolution, including 18% who believe evolution is divinely guided. What I find particularly interesting is that creationists were twice as likely as evolutionists to report being "very certain" of their views.

Certainty can be comforting. We like our leaders to be certain. Certainly breeds confidence. Why trust a leader who isn't even sure he or she is right?For if the trumpet gave an uncertain sound, who would prepare himself for war?

And yet, certainty may actually be a marker for poor data evaluation skills. Certainty may indicate that a person leaps to conclusions, and avoids alternative explanations.

And still, there is a role for certainty in leadership. Before a decision is made, multiple options need to be evaluated. But while a decision is being implemented, a steady course must be pursued. Indeed, in many cases, more than one option can succeed, but each option can succeed only if pursued to its conclusion.

With regard to the Iraq War, I feel that a surfeit of certainty--e.g. that WMD's were a "slam dunk"--was a major part in the decision, which now seems erroneous in hindsight, to go to war in Iraq. But on the other hand, I feel we must now "stay the course," more or less, to avoid the defeat brought on by an uncertain trumpet.