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May 30, 2005

EU Constitution Voted Down

Well, today the French voted down the EU Constitution. That's likely to be a fatal blow to it, because in theory, every country must adopt it, or it fails, and its creation was overseen by former French President d'Estaing, so it's kind of sort of looked at as of French origin.

My guess is that we'll see much rejoicing and tearing of hair, and especially lots and lots and lots of talking, then maybe a revote attempt somewhere, and then the existing Union treaties will be amended to extend the borders out to the new entrants and make a couple of the other changes from the Constitution.

Interestingly, apparently one of the issues that's been working against the Union is software patents. It's the most recent exemplar of the directly-elected EU Parliament having a hard time rejecting something the EU Commission wants. The Commission is roughly as democratic as the Senate originally was - Commissioners are appointed by member states. The appointed Commission controls the elected EU Parliament's entire legislative agenda. The proposed constitution wouldn't have changed that; it might've made it worse (unclear).

There's something that REALLY BUGS ME about the coverage of the EU Constitution referenda, as much in the blogosphere as traditional media. Few articles show interest in what the actual people saying no actually think. An NPR segment saw it as a revolt against that rightie Chirac. The NY Times sees it as having turned on immigration fears and extreme rightist politics. Some American conservative blogs see it as an only natural revolt against what silly and foolish French leaders want. To be fair, the Economist, Reason, and some others did OK.

Looking at things myself, I still think that the margin against it probably came from the fact that the proposed constitution sucked. That, and reservations over the EU Parliament limitations are what I've seen even many pro-EU Europeans posting on Groklaw and Slashdot say.

There seems to be a feeling that people can't have read it, it's so long. But the fact is that it's intended to be the law of the land. A copy of the proposed Constitution was sent to every French household, and books of explanations are selling well in France. Maybe people are taking appropriate care to understand a document of such importance, just as they read the Constitution and Federalist Papers here when they were up for consideration.

I thought that despite its length, it didn't do what a constitution should do. Its authors didn't aim to create a skeleton for the generations, that would allow economic, defense, foreign policy, infrastructure, etc. etc. problems to be addressed in the long term. It was more a combination of wishful-thinking political cookie jar and lots and lots and lots of tweaking to try and keep from scaring people. Except that if you do that, people look at the huge mound of paper and get scared wondering what it does.

In practice, I expect life under it would be like life in Texas, where we have to amend the Constitution every two years (the last series included detailed legislation on selling wine; another allowed local fire departments to donate old vehicles to Mexico). Except it'd be worse, because the TX constitution is kept in bounds by the well-crafted Federal one.

UPDATE: Perry de Havilland correctly pointed out that Samizdata isnt a conservative blog. Sorry, guys! I've updated accordingly.

Posted by Jon Kay at May 30, 2005 12:38 AM
Comments

You will find that Samizdata supports gay marriage (by virtue of not involving the state in marriage at all), opposes censorship (i.e. we have nothing agsinst pornography), opposes ID cards, thinks the 'drugs war' is moronic, constantly attacks the Tory party's stance on civil liberties, has stated that Clinton was less protectionist than Bush... so how are we a 'conservative' blog? :-)

Posted by: Perry de Havilland at May 30, 2005 04:40 AM

Jon,

Thanks for the post...I've been watching this for the last week or so and figured we'd get around to it sooner or later on here.

In my understanding of French politics, there are actually a couple of reasons that the Constitution was rejected. Many have tried to tied it directly to Chirac's popularity, which is--interestingly enough--lower than his nemesis George W. Bush. Chirac is hovering somewhere in the mid to high 30's in terms of popularity. (Ironic, isn't it?) Anyway, I don't see the rejection as a reflection of that popularity, I see his sagging popularity to be a result of his attempts to take slight steps away from the socialist state France had become under Mitterrand. (sp?) Most Americans probably have no clue that Chirac is a rightist. His attempts to break some of the power that unions hold in that country have been extremely unpopular. The French are very wary of the EU Constitution and many see it as a "Capitalist" swing in the direction of the US. They just don't want to give up their social programs--something they see as inevitable if the EU takes shape as currently intended.

This is all IMHO, of course.

Posted by: AR at May 30, 2005 08:16 AM

Whoops, Perry. You're right - you're a libertarian
blog. Sorry!.

Posted by: Jon Kay at May 30, 2005 09:58 AM

I agree. The failure of the E.U. Constitution in France had more to do with Chirac's personal popularity (or lack thereof) than with French opinion on Europe. This is common in referenda. In 1993, Canada rejected constitutional reform more because then-Prime Minster Mulroney (also a center-rightist) supported it than because of any real objection to the proposals.

To me, this is cause for both (muted) celebration and (heightened) worry. After all, whatever the proposed document's failings, opposition to it came from the extrems of French society: communists and fascists, Popular Front and National Front. There may be problems with social and political union run by an undemocratic technocracy in Brussels, but Europe still makes sense as some sort of supranational union of member-states.

I don't think this was such a huge blow to Europe, however. The French elites are vehemently for Europe, and, in general, they run the country. I suspect that the cause of union has suffered a serious setback, but one which could allow pro-Europeans to think more clearly about what kind of union is feasible and what kind of constitution makes sense.

For more of my take, see here:

http://the-reaction.blogspot.com/2005/05/leurope-cest-moi.html

Posted by: Michael Stickings at May 30, 2005 11:36 PM

It seems to me that the problem was that they failed, utterly, to write a constitution. The document they proposed wasn't a constitution in any sense in whihc I'd recognize is, because it attempted to inelegantly micromanage any number of aspects of the future union. The great beauty of the US constitution is how elegantly simple it is, in how much it leaves out as irrelevant to its purpose, which is to establish only the framework.

For a pertinent example, the US constitution says that there will be a Senate, and it will advise and consent on Presidential appointments. The document doesn't go into detail about how the Senate will do this, it leaves that responsibility to the Senators of the future. Those who wrote the EU constitution seem ignorant of what a constitution should do.

This is only a victory if they now go back, shred the old document, and instead of trying to write out how the government will operate, day-to-day, they learn to trust the people, and instead think about the large-scale architecture of the kind of EU government they want.

Posted by: Simon at May 31, 2005 12:26 AM

Yeah, from what very little I've read, this constitution sounds a lot more like a product of modern special interest politics than a visionary description of guiding principles.

I think it's a hard sell to individuals that this document is in their own self-interest. People fear losing sovereignty and national entitlements. Generally people have to be convinced of broad utility to vote yes on such things, whether it be a constitution or a local referendum.

"I'm not sure" and "I don't get it" tend to lead to a NO vote unless the status quo is perceived as fairly undesirable."What are we changing from?" plays a big role. Passing the US and French constitutions, for example, was a declaration of independence from past oppression, as the Iraqi constitution will hopefully be. That's a very different dynamic from choosing to join a much bigger bureaucracy...there's a solid amount of sentiment in such instances that joining the bigger bureaucracy may be MORE oppressive than the status quo. I'm sympathetic to that notion.

Posted by: bk at May 31, 2005 09:08 AM

As far as Europe has come, we are still dealing with a continent that has in places, Kings and Queens, and Dukes and Lords and Ladies.

Imagine my surprise at their aristocratic tendencies...

Posted by: Ryan at May 31, 2005 04:49 PM

I guess it also seems to me as if these individual countries with long, storied histories are being asked to blend their cultures - - their governments - - in with their neighbors, some of whom have been enemies, or at least suspicious of each other, for centuries. It worked in the US because we were a new country. I just don't see it working with "member states" who have had centuries of independence.

Posted by: AR at May 31, 2005 10:13 PM

Oh, I can see the possibility of a constitution going forward. It'll go forward if and only if it's a positive change from status quo, though. Note Texas joined the US despite storied (if short) history, and it definitely continues to have a real identity. Nor do I accept the idea that they're all aristocrats. One reason this treaty got the boot is because many DON'T like their new aristocrats.

I think political unification could help Europe because democratic polities above a certain size seem more stable. Democratic Athens went crazy and attacked fellow democracy and almost equal superpower Syracuse. Democratic Lichtenstein voted to revert to monarchy (!). France had its infamous 35-hour experiment. We have plenty of states with dumb ideas, but the other 49 and the Feds keep particular dumb ideas from getting out of hand.

They just need to not give this kind of assignment to the B-team. There are many capable Europeans, including some who've been in on constitution-writing parties before. The EU needs to give the job to them!

It'd help if they reformed some of the less democratic things about the EU (e.g., make it truly bicameral, have citizens elect their Commissioners). I could go on for hours on the bad effects that Commission structure and abilities have on the EU. Oh, and add a freely elected leader, not a figure of oligopoly.

Posted by: Jon Kay at June 1, 2005 12:50 AM

I equate the current EU constitution and thoughts of the EU in general toward the US Articles of Confederation, except, of course, in the opposite direction. They'll try it, it'll fail, they'll come back towards something more in the middle, not unlike the Founding Fathers.

Imagine that; centrism in the constitution. Who'd a thunk it?

Posted by: Ryan at June 1, 2005 02:31 PM
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