Centerfield

The Candidacy of H. Russell Potts, Jr.

Only two major elections fill the political void of this post-presidential election year, and they occur in New Jersey and the Commonwealth of Virginia. In Virginia, we will elect our 70th Governor, his Lieutenant Governor, an Attorney General of the Commonwealth, and 100 members of the House of Delegates. For over a year, because our state was not really in play (despite the assertions of Democrats) and because Virginia's constitution prohibits any elected governor from running to succeed himself (so we knew the seat would be open), operatives here have had their eye on the governor's race. With Mark Warner frequently mentioned as a presidential contender in 2008, the vote for his 2001 ticket-mate, former Richmond Mayor Timothy Kaine, is considered within Virginia and without to be an indicator of Virginian approval of the Warner Administration and a critical factor in whether this Southern governor (albeit Connecticut born) had the favor of Southern moderates so lustily craved by the national Democratic Party. We thought we knew the opposition: Attorney General Jerry Kilgore. We were only half right.

It is arguably a sign of the strength of the majority party when its members begin to peel themselves off and challenge the establishment. It may also be a sign of ideological weakness or of authoritarianism among the leadership. The first sign of rebellion came with the announcement of Warrenton Mayor George Fitch that he would contest Mr. Kilgore for the Republican nomination. Mr. Fitch presents Mr. Kilgore with a problem: he runs to the right of Kilgore on taxes (Kilgore tenaciously declines to sign the no-tax pledge despite the vocal protests of Grover Norquist and his cohort of single-issue econ-anarchists) and to the left on the environment.

But Mr. Fitch is not the subject of this commentary. Maverick Republican Russ Potts is. In 2003, Senator Potts narrowly won renomination to his seat in the Senate of Virginia--156 votes in a primary, a primary he was able to force over other, more conservative-friendly nomination methods with the help of the Virginia Incumbent Protect Act, Va. Code Ann. § 24.2-509(B), which allows an incumbent member of the state legislature to pick his own method of renomination. There is no party registration in Virginia, and our primaries are open to all registered voters, see Va. Code Ann. § 24.2-530. Conservatives lamented Potts's renomination as the result of the interference of Democrats and independents in a Republican Party affair.

On February 25, Sen. Potts announced he was running for governor as an "independent Republican," nominally retaining his party identification but rejecting "Virginia's restrictive primary process"--the same process that allowed all voters in the 27th Senatorial District to renominate him. Potts complained that Virginia law wouldn't allow a Democrat or an independent to vote for him to be the Republican nominee for governor, and vote across party lines down-ticket for the lieutenant governor, attorney general, and delegate. (Neither will the Constitution of the United States, as interpreted by the Supreme Court of the United States in California Democratic Party v. Jones, 530 U.S. 567 (2000).)

In reality, Potts was, unlike Mr. Fitch, acknowledging the inevitability of the Kilgore nomination. But the possibility of an independent third candidate (Sen. Potts must acquire 10,000 petition signatures across each of Virginia's eleven Congressional districts before June 14) has had Messrs. Kaine and Kilgore scurrying to assert that Potts hurts the other more than himself. As for Potts, he's been pointing to his moderate record: he supported early anti-abortion efforts (e.g., parental notification) but not recent attempts to impose new restrictions on access to abortion clinics. As chairman of the Senate Committee on Education and Health, he has been an obstacle to most of the conservative social agenda (though the declaration of his independent candidacy may allow conservatives finally to oust him from that post). Potts opposes the "car tax" repeal--a phase-out of the personal property taxes levied by municipalities on vehicles valued under $20,000--championed by former Governor (and momentary RNC Chairman) James Gilmore, and which now threatens to cost the state treasury over $1.2B annually. Potts supports investing in the transportation needs of the Commonwealth, which, as most who live in or visit Northern Virginia and the D.C. suburbs will especially agree, are growing increasingly urgent.

The Potts candidacy presents me (as a life-long, but moderate, Virginia Republican) with a problem, too. While the Potts candidacy could cynically (and possibly accurately) be viewed as either a) an extreme exercise in ego or b) the last-ditch and final effort of a rebel to stick it to his party, Potts talks the talk. "It's my party, too," he said, quoting former Governor Whitman. "I've supported limiting abortion, I've supported cutting taxes, but where does it stop? They're never satisfied."

Russ Potts is a...unique...individual. And he may present moderates from both parties in Virginia with a third choice this November. As he says, in a three-way race, it only takes 34% to win. Is he the right man for the job? Is he a spoiler? Or is his candidacy merely a means to pull both major party candidates back to the center and away from their lunatic fringe? The next eight months should tell.