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November 29, 2004

Pandora's Box: A Teaching Tale

Regarding nuclear proliferation, my simple thesis is that nuclear technology, whether for energy generation or for weapons, is revealingly (although not exclusively)understood through the Pandora's box analogy. The threat of terrorism has led our country to pursue a policy towards nuclear proliferation that relies on controlling some sort of exclusive nuclear club. While this may be wise and necessary over the short term, it strikes me as unrealistic to expect this to be successful over the long term.

If one acknowledges this (that other nations are likely to be able to develop nukes eventually despite our efforts to stop them), it follows that our foreign policy going forward has to begin making the transition from "all stick," and start working in more carrot.

A good friend sent me this story about some kid in Michigan who got pretty close to irradiating his neighborhood, even without malevolent intent.

David learned that a tiny amount of the radioactive isotope americium-241 could be found in smoke detectors. he contacted smoke-detector companies and claimed that he needed a large number for a school project. One company sold him about a hundred broken detectors for a dollar apiece.

Not sure where the americium was located, he wrote to an electronics firm in Illinois. A customer-service representative wrote back to say she'd be happy to help out with "your report." Thanks to her help, David extracted the material. He put the americium inside a hollow block of lead with a tiny hole pricked in one side so that alpha rays would stream out. In front of the block he placed a sheet of aluminum, its atoms absorb alpha rays and kick out neutrons. His neutron gun was ready.

The mantle in gas lanterns, the small cloth pouch over the flame, is coated with a compound containing thorium-232. When bombarded with neutrons it produces uranium-233, which is fissionable. David bought thousands of lantern mantles from surplus stores and blowtorched them into a pile of ash.


I know it's not a new story, but when you look at the details of it, it sure screams Pandora's Box.


Posted by Brian Keegan at November 29, 2004 01:03 PM
Comments

http://pubs.acs.org/cen/books/8232/8232books.html

Posted by: Susan at November 29, 2004 05:02 PM

Yep, it's a real story and not an urban legend.

Posted by: Tully at November 29, 2004 05:22 PM

Reading this makes me think I wasted my youth intellectually.

Posted by: mitch at November 29, 2004 05:34 PM

Well, the story's a bit exaggerated, but there's no doubt he had an exciting time doing it all! You gotta admire the ingenuity and dedication (since he didn't actually manage to kill anyone).

Posted by: Tully at November 29, 2004 06:08 PM

Just to clarify. I wasn't suggesting this story was untrue. I remember reading about it awhile back.

I'm just pointing out that if a motivated teenager can do what this kid did, it sure suggests that over the long term, we won't be able to control the club. It seems as though the theoretical know-how is widely available, the applied know-how is not so far behind, and the means somehow find their way to those seeking the nuke capability end.

Posted by: bk at November 30, 2004 09:09 AM

Technically what is being described is half true, it will make a neutron beam.
You can make a neutron source from smoke detectors, but to get an appreciable alpha flux he needs pounds not ounces (a whole lot of pounds). The configuration described will only produce a detectable (but not significant) neutron flux. As for the thorium to uranium reaction: the two experts I asked said no. A better way to do this would be to grind the americium sources up into a powder and mix them with beryllium.

Note: You should be using beryllium (which is very poisonous) instead of aluminum.

Also Note: Americium is a significant health hazard! Especially when inhaled. Any work like this should be done in a Plexiglas "glove box". Anyone inhaling this stuff can look forward to lung cancer, so get that living will on file.

Posted by: Bob J Young at November 30, 2004 10:12 AM

Pandora's Box was opened the day that we bombed Hiroshima. Once that sort of Power is found, the power hungry will find a way to have it. Its how the mind of man seems to work.

Iran has had a nuclear program for 20 years. They surely have the materials and technology to make a dirty bomb. Indeed, if they've worked for 20 years, I would imagine that if they truly wanted Nukes, they would have built them by now (perhaps they have?).

But, Pandora has lots of open boxes these days. Missing Soviet nuclear bombs (including the briefcase bombs) have been missing for nearly a decade.

Ratatosk

Posted by: Ratatosk at November 30, 2004 12:16 PM

I wasn't suggesting it wasn't true, just that it was being exaggerated. It just looks so much like an urban legend that I had to dig into it, and it really did happen. I'm with Bob, though. What Hahn actually managed to do was mostly just create a nasty little localized health hazard.

Posted by: Tully at November 30, 2004 02:03 PM

Oh, sure. I didn't think the story suggested that this kid created more than a "nasty localized health hazard." That seemed clear to me from the story. I don't want to imply that he was 3 weeks from fat boy and I don't thiunk the story suggests that.

What remains to notice is that 1)a variety of terrorists migth indeed be quite pleased with themselves were they to be able to create a smattering of nasty localized health hazards and 2)if one kid can get this far, a concteds and prolonged group effort is likely to get much farther pretty quickly despite our efforts to enforce prohibition.

Posted by: bk at November 30, 2004 04:02 PM

Oh, agreed, though the original Harper's story (and the author's subsequent book) puff up the incident enormously.

Your point is well taken. Whether chem/bio or nuke, it's all too easy, and it's way too late to keep the box shut. I can get the shudders just looking at the household stuff under my sink, because I know what some of that stuff can do in the right (wrong) combinations with just a little ingenuity.

Posted by: Tully at November 30, 2004 04:58 PM
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