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A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics |
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November 29, 2004Pandora's Box: A Teaching TaleRegarding nuclear proliferation, my simple thesis is that nuclear technology, whether for energy generation or for weapons, is revealingly (although not exclusively)understood through the Pandora's box analogy. The threat of terrorism has led our country to pursue a policy towards nuclear proliferation that relies on controlling some sort of exclusive nuclear club. While this may be wise and necessary over the short term, it strikes me as unrealistic to expect this to be successful over the long term. If one acknowledges this (that other nations are likely to be able to develop nukes eventually despite our efforts to stop them), it follows that our foreign policy going forward has to begin making the transition from "all stick," and start working in more carrot. A good friend sent me this story about some kid in Michigan who got pretty close to irradiating his neighborhood, even without malevolent intent.
Posted by Brian Keegan at November 29, 2004 01:03 PM Comments
http://pubs.acs.org/cen/books/8232/8232books.html Posted by: Susan at November 29, 2004 05:02 PMYep, it's a real story and not an urban legend. Posted by: Tully at November 29, 2004 05:22 PMReading this makes me think I wasted my youth intellectually. Posted by: mitch at November 29, 2004 05:34 PMWell, the story's a bit exaggerated, but there's no doubt he had an exciting time doing it all! You gotta admire the ingenuity and dedication (since he didn't actually manage to kill anyone). Posted by: Tully at November 29, 2004 06:08 PMJust to clarify. I wasn't suggesting this story was untrue. I remember reading about it awhile back. I'm just pointing out that if a motivated teenager can do what this kid did, it sure suggests that over the long term, we won't be able to control the club. It seems as though the theoretical know-how is widely available, the applied know-how is not so far behind, and the means somehow find their way to those seeking the nuke capability end. Posted by: bk at November 30, 2004 09:09 AMTechnically what is being described is half true, it will make a neutron beam. Note: You should be using beryllium (which is very poisonous) instead of aluminum. Also Note: Americium is a significant health hazard! Especially when inhaled. Any work like this should be done in a Plexiglas "glove box". Anyone inhaling this stuff can look forward to lung cancer, so get that living will on file. Pandora's Box was opened the day that we bombed Hiroshima. Once that sort of Power is found, the power hungry will find a way to have it. Its how the mind of man seems to work. Iran has had a nuclear program for 20 years. They surely have the materials and technology to make a dirty bomb. Indeed, if they've worked for 20 years, I would imagine that if they truly wanted Nukes, they would have built them by now (perhaps they have?). But, Pandora has lots of open boxes these days. Missing Soviet nuclear bombs (including the briefcase bombs) have been missing for nearly a decade. Ratatosk Posted by: Ratatosk at November 30, 2004 12:16 PMI wasn't suggesting it wasn't true, just that it was being exaggerated. It just looks so much like an urban legend that I had to dig into it, and it really did happen. I'm with Bob, though. What Hahn actually managed to do was mostly just create a nasty little localized health hazard. Posted by: Tully at November 30, 2004 02:03 PMOh, sure. I didn't think the story suggested that this kid created more than a "nasty localized health hazard." That seemed clear to me from the story. I don't want to imply that he was 3 weeks from fat boy and I don't thiunk the story suggests that. What remains to notice is that 1)a variety of terrorists migth indeed be quite pleased with themselves were they to be able to create a smattering of nasty localized health hazards and 2)if one kid can get this far, a concteds and prolonged group effort is likely to get much farther pretty quickly despite our efforts to enforce prohibition. Posted by: bk at November 30, 2004 04:02 PMOh, agreed, though the original Harper's story (and the author's subsequent book) puff up the incident enormously. Your point is well taken. Whether chem/bio or nuke, it's all too easy, and it's way too late to keep the box shut. I can get the shudders just looking at the household stuff under my sink, because I know what some of that stuff can do in the right (wrong) combinations with just a little ingenuity. Posted by: Tully at November 30, 2004 04:58 PM |
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