Centerfield

Kerry Should Have Won?

This article in the New York Times is likely to warm Carla's heart.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/23/national/23poll.html?oref=login

The gist is that, according to the NYT poll (yes, I know, can't be trusted) Americans have doubts about Bush's agenda and continue to be unhappy with his handling of Iraq and the economy.

Yet people are still optimistic about the next four years under Bush.

What is interesting in light of the stories I posted last night is the part about moral values:

The poll also found pervasive concern about what Americans view as the corrosive effect Hollywood and popular culture have on the nation's values and moral standards. Seventy percent said they were very or somewhat concerned that television, movies and popular music were lowering moral standards in this country.

So at the same time that people say they don't like what is on TV or in the movies, the studios continue to pour out sex and violence because this is what sells. Is there some cognitive dissonance here?

The poll was also interesting in what it said about polarization in the country:

While this sentiment was voiced by supporters of Mr. Bush and of Mr. Kerry, it appears that the concern about a decline in values is becoming another point of polarization in American politics. Mr. Bush's supporters were more likely to cite it than were Mr. Kerry's voters, and it was an issue that had particular resonance in the South and among weekly churchgoers, rural voters and women.

The poll found that 55 percent of Mr. Kerry's supporters said that Mr. Bush's supporters did not share their views and morals; 54 percent of Mr. Bush's voters said the same thing of those who voted for Mr. Kerry.

In addition, 70 percent of Mr. Kerry's supporters said they were more worried about candidates who "are too close to religion and religious leaders" than about political leaders who "don't pay enough attention" to religion, after a campaign in which Mr. Bush repeatedly spoke of God and his faith. By contrast, 52 percent of Mr. Bush's supporters said they were more worried about public officials who "don't pay enough attention to religion and religious leaders."

I suspect a lot of this divergence is more about perception than reality. People assume that those supporting the other candidate don't share their values. Even though this is probably not true, I find it disturbing that people hold such sterotypical views about their fellow countrymen.

The poll suggests that people are not particularly supportive of tax cuts and social security privatization, are against amending the Constitution to prohibit same-sex marriage and are largely in favor of the graduated income tax.

Here is the key:

"Across the board, the poll suggested that the outcome of the election reflected a determination by Americans that they trusted Mr. Bush more to protect them against future terrorist attacks - and that they liked him more than Mr. Kerry - rather than any kind of broad affirmation of his policies. As such, the result was reminiscent of the state of play Ronald Reagan found in 1980, when he defeated President Jimmy Carter."

So it seems that people simply did not trust Kerry on foreign policy. And that is always going to be a problem for the Democrats as long as foreign policy is an important issue.

It appears that the campaign actually helped the Democrats in the long run even though they lost the election:

Finally, in one bit of presumably good news for a party that is looking for it, Americans now have a better opinion of the Democratic Party than of the Republican Party: 54 percent said they had a favorable view of Democrats, compared with 39 percent with an unfavorable view. By contrast, 49 percent have a favorable view of Republicans, compared with 46 percent holding an unfavorable one.

It's not that unusual that Bush is more popular than his policies. This has been true of a number of presidents, including FDR, who were able to connect personally with the electorate even though their policies weren't that popular.

Posted by Marc W. Schneider at November 23, 2004 02:30 PM