Centerfield

This is one moderate Republican who is skeptical that Mark Warner could deliver Virginia for the Democrats on a national ticket.

It remains my position that the red states most open to Democrats lie not in the South, or even along its fringe, but in the Midwest. It remains my position that Evan Bayh at the top of the ticket, with a gently more leftward running mate to shore up current blue states, is an example of the most likely ticket to succeed.

Well, it sure is true that governors can't always deliver their state if they run for President. Clinton did. Did Reagan the first time? I know Romney won't do it if he runs.

My guess on the red states that could possibly go blue are the ones with the highest growth and most intrastate migration.

I think we centrists need to face that all the dream people we're floating, while they may make sense in a national race, would be uphill climbs in their primaries. That's why I think we could do good work by encouraging moderates/independents/unenrolleds to choose temporary party affiliation if necessary, in order to push the parties towards the center. I'm lucky in MA that I can do this without any machinations, as an unenrolled, I can pick the primary I vote in.

I know a moderate Democrat that people said that about once, Brian, and yesterday they opened his Presidential Library celebrating his two terms as President.

As a Va. resident, I like Warner. In fact, he's the reason I started calling myself a moderate.

But he's kind of a dry bone, lacking the charisma necessary to run a national campaign -- at least from what I've seen so far. And he hasn't really done anything notable during his term as governor. Then again, neither did Bush in Texas ...

Right Matt, I'm not saying it can't happen. I'm saying that if we like the idea of electing moderates, here's how we can help.

Curently the two aprties have hegemony via the primary system, and that can foster extremism. Imagine how different the candidates might look if the huge numbers of voters without party affiliations decided to made themsleves heard in the primaries.

Luckily we don't have to imagine, bk. We already know we'd get more moderates like Arnold Schwarzenegger. He never ran for governor in the past because he knew the social conservatives in the state would have given him hell in the primary. So when the recall came up, he saw it as an opportunity to skip the pull to the right and to run up the middle.

I personally believe Gov. Warner is one of the best prospects for the Democrats to take back the White House. Here is a link to my blog:
http://markwarnerforpresident2008.blogspot.com/

As for moderate GOP, I highly doubt we will see any of them on the GOP 2008 ticket. The Republican Party has marginalized them, primarily due to the efforts of the extreme social and religious faction of the GOP.

After the election I've been sitting around thinking about what (or evern better) who the Dems need to consider for a canidate for 2008 (never too early to start dreaming). I truely believe the Democratic message will be winner, but Democrats need someone who can articulate the message without being crucified as a looney "out the loop" liberal (e.g. John Kerry)

Since I live in VA. this brings me to Mark Warner - Warner a moderate democrat has somewhere around a 63% approval rating, with solid support among rural and moderate republicans. He's turned a 1 billion dollar deficit that he inherited by our last governor(a republican "tax cutter") into a 1 billion dollar surplus. He downsized state government first, then restructered Virginia's tax system, which generated revenue, while cutting tax burderns for the middle class. He did this with help from a Republican majority in the state sentate. Governing magazine recently named Warner Public Official of the year for 2004. Warner has stayed away from hot botton social issues - and no one could call him a "out to the loop liberal"

So what are his positives? First he comes from the private sector, and unlike Bush, Warner was succesful as a business man. In the late 70's Warner helped to star a cell phone company that eventually became Nextel. The rest was history. As a venture capitalist he has had a hand in creating literally millions of jobs in VA before entering politics. During his campain for Governor, the right-wing attack dogs had a difficult time labeling Warner as a liberal pro-tax free market hater, for obvious reasons. Warner has also shown he is dedicated to improving mental health services, child health care coverage, and a myraid of other social/healthcare issues. So Mark Warner truely could tout that he is a real "compassionalte conservative".
Also Warner has loads of cash (net worth somwhere around $300 million), so as a Presidential canidate he could at leats not have to worry about funding during say the primary season)

On the negative side - Well, even with his popularity, and credentials as governor, Warner would still lkely have a difficult time winning Virginia - considering that VA. has not voted for a Democrat since 1964. As someone posted before, the Dems might be better off trying to win a "swing" midwestern state (i.e. Ohio, Iowa, and so forth) then attempt to turn a staunchly repulican state blue, even if the canidate hails from that state. Therefore it might make more sense to look for a canidate from the midwest region.
Warner's personality also is somewhat "low key" - he is youthful in apperance, and a good speaker - but no one is going to confuse Warner with Clinton or say Guliani. He's a bit dry, almost in the John Kerry vane. But there is potential.

I believe Warner will definatley make a run for the Presidency - his term ends in January of 2006 (In Va. governers can not serve consecutive terms,msomething that will likely change in the future) Therefore Warner can start eyeing Presidential primaries immediatly - laying the grounwork for his run for President with no governing responsibilties.

It will be interesting to see if Warner's credential that made him a viable canidate for governer (a common sense approach to governing with a mild liberal lean) will make him a viable canidate for President. I think so, and if anything because Warner will have the money and credentials to make people give him a serious look.