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November 01, 2004

Confidence Gap

Matt Yglesias posts an interesting tidbit.


according to the latest Washington Post poll, 48 percent of respondents intend to vote for John Kerry. 48 percent intend to vote for George Bush. But 53 percent say Bush will win, while just 33 percent say Kerry will win

This is a familiar phenomenon for Red Sox fans. Based on past history, you assume that somethow defeat will be snatched from the jaws of victory.

Posted by rickheller at November 1, 2004 09:22 PM
Comments

It is often suggested that a significant percentage of undecided voters subconsciously are influenced by who they think is going to win based on the theory that everyone wants to vote for a winner. This may be a secret weapon for Bush tomorrow. However, I'm a late breaking undecided for Bush, and I think that I make Kerry the 5 to 4 favorite.

Posted by: Todd Pearson at November 1, 2004 10:50 PM

We'll see. I kind of doubt that it will be a late night tomorrow night. I have a feeling there will be a trend early and it will follow through in most states. It would be kind of interestig for it to end up being decided in Hawaii, but we'll probably know who the next president is before the polls close here in California.

Posted by: Will at November 1, 2004 11:39 PM
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