Centerfield

Yeah. As if this election could get any more intense at this point, now we have America's #1 enemy weighing in.

I don't see a transcript of it up anywhere, but we're getting bits and pieces in news stories. Among other things, he admits for the first time that they did the 9/11 attacks:

God knows that it had not occurred to our mind to attack the towers, but after our patience ran out and we saw the injustice and inflexibility of the American-Israeli alliance toward our people in Palestine and Lebanon, this came to my mind.

As for impact on the election, it's really difficult to tell. It's the kind of news that will grab people's attention more than the other stuff being hammered on by both campaigns. Who knows what people will make of it?

I thought we'd need a shovel to dig him up. But shovels can be used to bury as well.

Read the transcript--no idea how accurate a translation it is. Want the audio gone over closely. The only reference that would make it seem recent is Kerry's name, used once. OBL seems to think they got 50,000 in the towers.

Makes me wonder if this isn't a response to the persistent reports that he's dead. If for real and not overdubbed at the Kerry bit, would indicate he was alive at least as recently as the end of the primaries.

Why Osama now?

http://www.preemptivekarma.com/archives/2004/10/why_osama_now.html

Assuming that it is him (or even if it is a double or something), it's hard to know what the motivation is. Is he or Al Quaida simple enough to think that they can scare the electorate into voting for Kerry? Or do they really want Bush in order to mobilize recruitment, etc.? Maybe this is just a way to rationalize attacks that were going to happen anyway; ie, they can say we warned you. It's impossible to truly understand the thinking of fanatics and it's questionable how much he understands about US politics. Anyone with a rudimentary understanding, though, would know this probably helps Bush.

I said yesterday that I think that the senior leadership of al-Qaeda probably wants Bush re-elected. This only strengthens my opinion. I'm not particularly comfortable with the fact that I'm going to vote for the guy that UBL wants me to, and I certainly hope it does not actually give Bush any real help.

If this translation is accurate, the statement is interesting, although, of course, bullshit. He is clearly trying to come across as reasonable (or as reasonable as a fanatic can sound). He implies that we didn't show enough "flexibility" re Israel/Palestineans. Of course his statement it never occurred to them until later to attack the towers is nonsense. Does he think we were born yesterday? They attacked the WTC in 1993 and they were obviously planning the attack for years.

OK, this may be too strange, but maybe Osama is trying to take credit for whatever happens. If Bush wins, it's because Osama dared the Americans. If Kerry wins it's because the Americans cowered in fear of the great leader. It won't sell here, but martyr wannabees will love it, and buy it.
This is less about us, I think, and more about publicity. Because they want us dead no matter who wins.

Maybe Condi Rice should leave the campaign trail and return to her office.

I think edudude has it right. It's hard to say who OBL is endorsing. Todd has some valid points, but I think there some compelling arguments that this video could help Kerry.

Unfortunately, I thought Kerry's initial reaction, to blame Bush that OBL hasn't been caught, was pretty tone deaf, and likely to shift a few more votes towards Bush, particularly after Bush's initial reaction sounded apolitical.

Damn me but I can't help thinking about when Teresa Heinz said Bush had Bin LAden in hiding and would bring him out before the election.

Hmmm...

I'm reading and hearing that this plays politically for Bush. It hasn't swayed my opinion. But, I will say that having to see his face three years after he masterminded a vicious attack on our home soil doesn't sit well with me.

I thought that Kerry made some apolitical statement on his way to a FL airport after the initial airing of the tape. I wasn't aware that he pointed out that Bush had failed to get him. While that's obvious to me, I don't know how it played with the 3(?) undecideds everybody seems to be fighting over.

I guess I find his appearance at this time to be as much of an annoyance as it is a reminder of failure. I've had enough of this boogey man. If he's "the" problem, kill him. If not, forget him.

Jamie,

You make a good point it in that I might not be aware of all the facts as far as Kerry. My source was MSNBC television and I believe Kerry may have said something apolitical when the tape was first aired and MSNBC didn't play it as one of their soundbites.

I do think both candidates have to be very careful on how they politize this event, because OBL strikes a deep nerve with the electorate.

One more thing, based on Rick's comment on Rice. Do you think this new tape is a high enough threat that Bush should stop campaigning and go back to the White House? I'm sure if something happens this weekend, there will be some who critize the fact that he's not in the oval office right now.

Dick Morris made a point in an op-ed piece that I think is relevant.

He said, that because Bush polls well on Security and Terrorism, that anytime the conversation swings to those topics, it's in Bush's favor.

Kerry loses because his polling strength is in domestic issues.

If we step away from ideology, is Bush support in the face of this tape a matter of fear, denial, sympathy, personality?

What's going on here?

What is going on is that the election has too much momentum to be stopped by a video of Osama. Which is kind of strange. It does make me proud though, that the electorate seems to be ignoring Osama. He will not influnce our election, though he will claim that he has. In some respects he has lost relevance, and that is a good thing for us. Barring something bad over the next few days, in this election we have more to fear from lawyers than Bin Laden.
Lets hope it stays that way:)

It's always tough to judge these things with a couple days left and a unique event like the OBL tape.

Just as a curiosity, if you look at the new tracking polls out today, 4 of 5 of them move in Kerry's direction. Fox mentions that half their sample was taken Friday night, after the OBL news was released. Of course, that doesn't mean the people in their sample knew about it, and sometimes these things take a day or two to digest.

My thoughts on the Bin Laden tape were...

1. "Nanny nanny boo boo! Remember me?"

2. No matter what happens in the US elections, it gives him standing with his followers that "he influenced the US elections." It certainly knocked everything that anyone else was saying, including either candidate, off the front page.

3. Seems to reinforce Cheney's "be afraid, be very afraid" message, and I can understand why the Republican spinners are pleased. Will it make a difference? Not so sure -- will Amercians perceive that he's trying to manipulate them, or have they already made their decisions?

Are you guys serious? I mean, some of the statements here are not thought out at all.
1. TULLY - OBL doesn't think he KILLED 50,000 people. The reference is that Bush did nothing to HELP 50,000 people in the Towers right after they were hit. He thought that 50,000 were in need of help, ie IN the Towers at the time of the attack. This is probably close to accurate.
2. MWS - It wasnt' until after 1982, when the US sanctioned the attack in Lebanon, that OBL thought of hitting the Towers, and this train of thought is made CLEAR in his speech.

Minor comments, however these "misunderstandings" go to show how the electorate will hear what they are preconceived to hear. We need to use our noodles in analyzing all the info. Thanks.

I believe that Bush is in cahoots with Bin Laden and this is definitely a politacal ploy. Vote for me not Kerry. I too think that Tereasa Heinz is correct in saying that Bin Laden would surface again just before the election. For whatever reason Bush has for doing this I don't know. I just feel that he too is an evil man and it scares me to death knowing that he is running our country. He talks about not wanting the government to be dictating Americans lives, however, whom is it that wants the Patriat Act and who is that keeps talking about a new One World. He is acting like a dictator when it come to trying to change Iraq. That country has been that way for millions of years and they are not going to change just because Bush wants them to. I say leave Iraq alone and let us be Americans.

Any American who goes to vote on Tuesday should expect to die. The warning is clear. No way that America can protect all it's voters.

The tape will be used as a pretext for Bush to stage a Coup.

Re: the last three comments.

wow.

A transcript of the Bin-Laden video-tape (in fact even two of them) is to be found at: http://cryptome.org/us-eu-gap.htm