Centerfield

Ohio is a VERY Republican state... I would be shocked if Bush lost it in the end... I would be just as shocked if he won Democratic Wisconsin but it appears that is more and more likely. I think Minnesota could be the sneaker of the election for Bush... The State has moved a little to the right in the last couple of years.

I just did the MSNBC electoral vote picker giving Kerry all the Blue states along with New Hampshire, and giving Bush all of the Red States including Iowa and Wisconsin. The result is Bush 271, Kerry 267... So, it looks like Bush wins if he takes Florida and Ohio, or Florida and two of Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. If Bush loses Iowa and Ohio, but wins Wisconsin or Minnesota along with New Mexico (which is a possiblity) the election is tied 269 to 269 and he gets in by the assumed Republican majority in the House... Wouldn't that be something!

The other Kerry Killer is New Jersey, which has been strangely close... If Bush upsets Kerry there he only has to win one of the Blue mid-western states.

Oh... In the 271 to 267 scenario I also gave Ohio to Kerry.

I don't think Kerry will win Ohio, but if he does, I'd be shocked if he lost Minnesota or Wisconsin concurrently.

My sense is that even though polls are not sensitive enough to tell us what the exact sentiments are, the sentiments theselves as recorded by actual votes will trend similarly from state to state in the end. So If Kerry somehow were to eke out a win in Ohio, he'd also win in Wi and Mn by greater than expected margins, and conversely, if Bush somehow wins in Mn and Wi, he'll also carry Ohio easily.

It just doesn't seem likely that a usually republican state would go democrat at the same time that a usually democratic state would go republican, unless there were some long term demographic trend shaking out. I expect that whichever guy wins will carry all of his historically reliable states and a majority of the swing states, and the trend away from historical norms will be pretty much stable in swinging slightly to one guy or the other. We'll see though.

What's going on in Florida these days? I thought it was settling out to be a Bush state, but it looks like the trends are moving it back in to Kerry territory.

There are more recent polls showing Kerry ahead in Ohio than behind.

Also..Gallup has been pretty much a proBush polling for weeks...and when compared to other polls looks way off. They were also way off in 2000.

We report, you decide.

Will,

The last three polls from Florida on Real Clear Politics have Bush up by 1(Quinnipiac), Kerry up by 1(Survey USA), and Bush up by 3(Mason-Dixon), with an average showing Bush in the lead.

What Carla says isn't really true, there have been multiple polls in Ohio that have Bush in the lead. Since the debate RCP's has it Bush by 1(Mason-Dixon), Kerry by 2(Survey USA), Bush by 5(Fox), and Kerry by 1(Gallup), with an average showing Bush in the lead.

I'm a little shocked to see Bush ahead in some of these states. Am I the only one? I really thought these guys would be Kerry's by now and we would be looking only at Ohio, Florida and PA.
Do you see these results as trending or a blip?

Here's an interesting article from Slate to add to the mix: http://slate.msn.com/id/2108513/

Basically, their premise is that there are signs that Bush is giving up on Ohio. I don't really buy in to the theory, but I thought I'd throw it out for comment.

Don't tell Ah-nuld!

Mathew:

Here are the latest polls from Ohio:

Kerry Bush
Scripps 49 43
Gallup 50 45
Fox* 44 49
SUSA* 49 47
ABC 50 46
Zogby* 48 51
M-D* 45 46
Rass* 47 47
Ucincy* 48 46

* = likely voters.

And Nader is off the ballot in Ohio, too.

Latest Quinnipac Poll has Kerry up in Pennsylvania by 6. It has Kerry down by 1 in Florida.

If Kerry wins two of any of those three, he wins.

Carla,

You have more access to polls than I do... I stand corrected.

I disagree that it is over if Bush loses Ohio and Pennsylvania, and I still think he won't lose Ohio. If he wins two of Iowa, Wisconin, and Minnesota, along with Florida, he can win without the Buckeye State.

Florida, Iowa, and Wisconsin would bring Bush to 271, Carla, without him winning either Ohio or Penn. Or New Hampshire and New Mexico, plus either Iowa or Wisconsin. There's a lot more combinations, some more likely than others. Kerry's problem is he has to hold everything he has, plus pretty much sweep the Midwest. Kerry needs to pick up about 80 more EC votes, whereas Bush needs to add 43. If Bush takes Florida, he only needs to add 16. And Kerry could actually take Penn, Florida, and Ohio, and still lose if Bush sweeps the Upper Midwest.

I'd add that if Kerry loses Penn (I doubt he will) it's all over for him. Not mathematically, but the odds that he could lose Penn and still sweep enough of the rest to win are miniscule.