A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics
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A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics | |
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October 01, 2004Whither Osama?In last night's debate, the name of Osama bin Laden came up several times, with both candidates vowing to continue pursuing him and bring him to justice. But are we chasing a ghost? Has the search for bin Laden become a snipe hunt*? With the 9/11 anniversary release of a videotape featuring #2 Al Qaeda figure Ayman al-Zawahri, and today's release of an audiotape from al-Zawahri calling for attacks on U.S. and British targets everywhere, the question is, where's Osama? The last certain communication from bin Laden was a videotape in December 2001. There have been some audiotapes of questionable authenticity since then, but little else. The last confirmed sighting was in the Tora Bora region in November 2001. There has been no confirmed sighting of bin Laden since the December 2001 Tora Bora raid. A Christmas 2001 story in the Pakistan Observer quoted a Taliban leader as saying that Osama died "a natural death" in December and was buried with Wahhabi rites. Bin Laden was reportedly in poor health, and required regular dialysis treatments. Dialysis machines are hardly portable technology. No direct communications from bin Laden have been received and verified since December 2001. All claims that he is alive have come from AQ or Taliban members, or from European intelligence agencies relying on same. And now the AQ releases are all coming from al-Zawahri, with no mention at all of Osama. My belief is that the $50 million reward for Osama will go unclaimed, unless someone with a shovel stumbles on the spot marked "X". In any case I think that an Osama "October Surprise" is very highly unlikely. What do you think? (*--Yes, there really are birds called snipe, and they really can be legally hunted, but that's not the true point of a "snipe hunt!") Posted by Tully at October 1, 2004 12:46 PMComments
Yeah, I think he's dead too. the only plausible altenate explanation is that he decided to squirrel himself away so that he could make a well-timed appearance to buoy the AQ effort. I don't think he's that patient or that good at keeping a secret. It's much more parsimonious that he died, and the remaining AQ leadership is keeping it on the QT for myth/propaganda purposes. If we thought he was really still alive, we'd probably be declaring loudly that he must be dead to goad him into making an appearance that could help us find him. Posted by: bk at October 1, 2004 01:16 PMI'm not so sure he's dead, but you make some valid points. Wasn't there some audio of him since that point with verifiable events to suggest it wasn't recorded earlier? On the other hand, I really can't understand why there hasn't been any new videos of him, particularly after the Madrid bombings. Posted by: Will at October 1, 2004 02:52 PMWill, the voice was "non-excludable" from bad audiotapes, and there are family similarities in vocal characteristics, and Osama has adult relatives and offspring. So that's not nearly the same as a positive ID. To boot, AQ has shown it is technically computer savvy. The tapes could have been faked. Not that tough. But it was a total of three tapes over several months in 2002, as if they were produced to quell the rumors of December 2001. And it's been a long time since those came out as well, with no more Osama. And no video at all since 2001. Posted by: Tully at October 1, 2004 11:30 PMIf he is dead...Al Qaida is sure doing a helluva job without him. Oy. Posted by: carla at October 2, 2004 02:21 AMAccording to an article I read the other day (I think in the NYT), the consensus seems to be that OBL is alive and well, that reports of his demise are greatly exaggerated. Posted by: MWS at October 4, 2004 02:16 PMThat would probably have been Peter Bergen in Atlantic Monthly, Marc. But he knows this how? There have been no authenticated communications from Osama since 2001. No sightings. No verified reorts. Nada. Nothing but some very dubious audiotapes that are now over 2 years old. Bergen has only the many-hand word of people who want Osama to be alive. The Russian press (and many of the DU crowd) have claimed that the Pakistanis have him, and are holding him for right before election time. The Pakistanis claim that he died around the time of Tora Bora (Dec 2001). A top Taliban leader said Osama died a natural death around Xmas 2001--then recanted the claim months later. In the last known videotape of Osama (filmed sometime between Sep 11 2001 and Dec 6 2001) his beard had turned white and his left side showed unmistakeable signs of paralysis, compatible with renal failure. After that, no more video. Al-Zawahri makes all the AQ pronouncements, without ever referring to Osama. For years now. If Osama honestly did have renal failure and diabetes, as is thought, he's almost certainly dead by now. If he didn't, he might be alive--but if so why is Al-Zawahri doing all the front work, without mentioning Osama? We have no way of being sure either way without a body. But I'm willing to offer $1 in genuine US currency (I'll even pay shipping charges!) to anyone who can provide verifiable concrete evidence that Osama was actually breathing anytime after, say, two years ago today. I think my $1 is safe. Posted by: Tully at October 4, 2004 03:40 PM |
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